希腊VAN地震预报方法的进展与争论(I)——进展
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摘要
该文综合希腊ＶＡＮ小组成员及各国专家发表的有关论文，全面介绍了ＶＡＮ小组自８０年代初以来所进行的地电地震预报方法的探索和效果，包括观测技术、预报程序、地震三要素的估计、预报及对应情况，国际上的评价及争论等。全文包括两部分，即进展和国际评价与争论，本文是其中的第一部分。
This paper,on the basis of synthesizing the related papers issued by the members of VAN group in Greece and the experts from various countries,comprehensively introduces the exploration and results of the earthquake prediction method based on seismic electric signals carried on by the VAN group since the beginning of the 1980s,including observational technologies,predicting procedures,estimate and prediction of three elements of earthquake,and the correspondence,evaluation and debate in the world and so on The whole paper includes two parts:the developments and the international evaluation and the debate This paper is the first part
This paper,on the basis of synthesizing the related papers issued by the members of VAN group in Greece and the experts from various countries,comprehensively introduces the exploration and results of the earthquake prediction method based on seismic electric signals carried on by the VAN group since the beginning of the 1980s,including observational technologies,predicting procedures,estimate and prediction of three elements of earthquake,and the correspondence,evaluation and debate in the world and so on The whole paper includes two parts:the developments and the international evaluation and the debate This paper is the first part
引文
1VarotsosP，AlexopoulosK．Physicalpropertiesofthevariationsoftheelectricfieldoftheearthprecedingearthquakes，Ⅰ．Tectonophysics，1984，110：73－98．2VarotsosP，AlexopoulosK．Physicalpropertiesofthevariationsoftheelectricfieldoftheearthprecedingearthquakes，Ⅱ：Determinationofepicenterandmagnitude．Tectonophysics，1984，110：99－125．3VarotsosP，AlexopoulosK．LatestaspectsofearthquakepredictioninGreecebasedonseismicelectricsig－nals．Tectonophysics，1991，188：321－347．4DologlouE．AthreeyearcontinuoussampleofoficialydocumentedpredictionsissuedinGreeceusingtheVANmethod：1987—1989．Tectonophysics，1993，224：189—202．5VarotsosP，AlexopoulosK，LazaridouM．LatestaspectsofearthquakePredictioninGreecebasedonseismicelectricsignals，Ⅱ．Tectonophysics，1993，224：1—37．6国家地震局赴希腊地震代表团．中国地震代表团赴希腊访问考察．国际地震动态，1992（12）12—16．7VarotsosP，AlexopoulosK，NomicosKetal．OficialearthquakepredictionprocedureinGreecebasedonseis－micelectricsignals，Ⅱ．Tectonophysics，1988，152：193—196．8Stavrakakis，GN，DrakopoulosJ．TheVANmethod：contradictoryandmisleadingresultssince1981．GeophysResLetters，1996，23（11）：1347—1350．9VarotsosP，AlexopoulosKetal．EarthquakepredictionsissuedinGreecebyseismicelectricsignalssinceFebruary6，1990．Tectonophysics，1993，224：269—288．10VarotsosP，AlexopoulosK，NomicosKetal．Earthquakepredictionandelectricsignals．Nature，1986，322：120．11VarotsosP，Eftaxias，LazaridouM．Replyto“AfalsealarmbasedonelectricalactivityrecordedataVAN－stationinNorthernGreeceinDecember1990”byJ．DrakopoulosandG．Stavrakakis．GeophysResLeters，1996，23（11）：1359—1362．
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