美国西部地区加卸载响应比的时空演化及地震活动性分析
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摘要
美国西部地区位于环太平洋地震带,该地震带是地球上地震活动最为强烈的地带,为了研究该地区的地震活动性,对该地区进行了加卸载响应比的时空扫描,考察了该地区加卸载响应比异常区域的时空演化;并用2001—2006年的扫描结果与次年实际发生的5级以上地震进行对比,发现绝大部分的强震都发生在前一年的预测区域内。根据加卸载响应比的时空演化和该地区的最新扫描结果,对未来地震活动性进行了分析。
The seismogenic process of a major earthquake is rather complicated.From the viewpoint of mechanics or physics,the essence of an earthquake is the damage,instability or failure of the focal media accompanied by a rapid release of energy.A new parameter-Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) has been proposed as a measure of this process.Using LURR as a precursor in earthquake prediction,retrospective examination of over hundred earthquake cases has been carried out,and more than 80% of the examined ones are well in agreement with that the peak of LURR,which appeared before the main shock and the peak value is much higher than 1.By the way,in the latest 4 years(2003—2006),the earthquake prediction with LURR method is satisfied,which was conducted in Chinese mainland at the end of every year.The western United States lies on the Circum-Pacific zone,the most active seismic zone in the globe.In order to study the seismicity in western America,the spatial scanning of Load/Unload Response Ration in western America(30~50°N,100~125°W) has been conducted and the evolution of the LURR anomalous region has been investigated.The comparisons of the LURR anomalous regions in 2001—2006 with the actual M≥5.0 earthquakes are performed respectively,which shows that 18 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 19 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in total when the scanning radius R=100 km and 20 earthquakes in LURR anomalous regions while 21 earthquakes in LURR regions when R=200 km.The statistical results show that LURR is a good precursor in earthquake prediction.In order to analyze the seismicity in western America,the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions is investigated.According to the evolution(figure 3 in the paper),some analyses have been carried out as below:(1) In the rectangle zone of 45°N~49°N,120°W~124°W,anomaly appears in Figure 3a,and keeps increasing,stays in high value during(g) to(m),decreases from(o) to(p),while there is no earthquakes with magnitude M5 or larger occurred during 2002 to 2007,so strong earthquakes(about M6) will probably occur in this region,and the magnitude and the probable occurrence time of earthquakes can be determined according to the formula Eq.3 in the paper.(2) In the rectangle zone of 31°N~36°N,115°W~118°W,in Fig.3,the anomalous LURR value rises from(a) to(b),and decreases at(c),at this time the No.17 earthquake(Sep.2005) occurred in table 2;from(d) to(f) this region stays in rather high value,and rises at(g) and then the No.18,No.19 earthquakes occurred successively;the LURR value in this region keeps increasing from(h) to(j),and stay high value from(k) to(m) without any change,but the highest LURR point of this region has moved to south slightly;it decreases form(n) to(p),so the magnitude and time of the probable earthquakes also can be determined according to the formula of T2 and M in the paper.(3) In region around point 46°N,110°W,from(a) to(b) the anomalous area gets bigger and value rises gradually,and then No.16 earthquake(Aug.2005) took place.Although the scanning result in late 2004(d) didn't appear any anomaly,some big anomalous areas with rising LURR value appeared from Mar.2007 to Jun.2007,indicating if we investigated the evolution of the LURR anomalous region,the No.16 earthquake could be predicted accurately.The anomalous region around this point appears again at(i) and the anomalous area gets bigger gradually,and the value rises during(m) to(p),we will keep an eye on this region and more scanning will be carried out,if the peak value of this region is appears,the magnitude and time of the probable earthquakes will be determined in terms of Eq.3.(4) In region around point 40°N,124°W,some small anomalous region appears in(a)~(b),and the area gets bigger in(c)~(h),and then No.20 earthquake occurred(Jul.2006);the anomalous region keeps same in(i)~(m) and then No.21 earthquake occurred(Feb.2007);the anomalous region gets smaller and disappears at last in(n)~(p),in this process No.23 earthquake(Jun.2007) occurred in south of this region with short distance.So we think during the LURR anomalous process in this region,4 earthquakes with magnitude M5 or lager occurred successively,in other words this region release energy successively during the anomalous process and will keep in a more peaceful state in the future 1 or 2 years.
The seismogenic process of a major earthquake is rather complicated.From the viewpoint of mechanics or physics,the essence of an earthquake is the damage,instability or failure of the focal media accompanied by a rapid release of energy.A new parameter-Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) has been proposed as a measure of this process.Using LURR as a precursor in earthquake prediction,retrospective examination of over hundred earthquake cases has been carried out,and more than 80% of the examined ones are well in agreement with that the peak of LURR,which appeared before the main shock and the peak value is much higher than 1.By the way,in the latest 4 years(2003—2006),the earthquake prediction with LURR method is satisfied,which was conducted in Chinese mainland at the end of every year.The western United States lies on the Circum-Pacific zone,the most active seismic zone in the globe.In order to study the seismicity in western America,the spatial scanning of Load/Unload Response Ration in western America(30~50°N,100~125°W) has been conducted and the evolution of the LURR anomalous region has been investigated.The comparisons of the LURR anomalous regions in 2001—2006 with the actual M≥5.0 earthquakes are performed respectively,which shows that 18 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 19 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in total when the scanning radius R=100 km and 20 earthquakes in LURR anomalous regions while 21 earthquakes in LURR regions when R=200 km.The statistical results show that LURR is a good precursor in earthquake prediction.In order to analyze the seismicity in western America,the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions is investigated.According to the evolution(figure 3 in the paper),some analyses have been carried out as below:(1) In the rectangle zone of 45°N~49°N,120°W~124°W,anomaly appears in Figure 3a,and keeps increasing,stays in high value during(g) to(m),decreases from(o) to(p),while there is no earthquakes with magnitude M5 or larger occurred during 2002 to 2007,so strong earthquakes(about M6) will probably occur in this region,and the magnitude and the probable occurrence time of earthquakes can be determined according to the formula Eq.3 in the paper.(2) In the rectangle zone of 31°N~36°N,115°W~118°W,in Fig.3,the anomalous LURR value rises from(a) to(b),and decreases at(c),at this time the No.17 earthquake(Sep.2005) occurred in table 2;from(d) to(f) this region stays in rather high value,and rises at(g) and then the No.18,No.19 earthquakes occurred successively;the LURR value in this region keeps increasing from(h) to(j),and stay high value from(k) to(m) without any change,but the highest LURR point of this region has moved to south slightly;it decreases form(n) to(p),so the magnitude and time of the probable earthquakes also can be determined according to the formula of T2 and M in the paper.(3) In region around point 46°N,110°W,from(a) to(b) the anomalous area gets bigger and value rises gradually,and then No.16 earthquake(Aug.2005) took place.Although the scanning result in late 2004(d) didn't appear any anomaly,some big anomalous areas with rising LURR value appeared from Mar.2007 to Jun.2007,indicating if we investigated the evolution of the LURR anomalous region,the No.16 earthquake could be predicted accurately.The anomalous region around this point appears again at(i) and the anomalous area gets bigger gradually,and the value rises during(m) to(p),we will keep an eye on this region and more scanning will be carried out,if the peak value of this region is appears,the magnitude and time of the probable earthquakes will be determined in terms of Eq.3.(4) In region around point 40°N,124°W,some small anomalous region appears in(a)~(b),and the area gets bigger in(c)~(h),and then No.20 earthquake occurred(Jul.2006);the anomalous region keeps same in(i)~(m) and then No.21 earthquake occurred(Feb.2007);the anomalous region gets smaller and disappears at last in(n)~(p),in this process No.23 earthquake(Jun.2007) occurred in south of this region with short distance.So we think during the LURR anomalous process in this region,4 earthquakes with magnitude M5 or lager occurred successively,in other words this region release energy successively during the anomalous process and will keep in a more peaceful state in the future 1 or 2 years.
引文
[1]尹祥础.地震预测新途径的探索[J].中国地震,1987,3:1-7.
[2]尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预测[J].中国科学,1991,21(5):512-518.
[3]Yin Xiangchu,Chen Xuezhong,Song Zhiping.The load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory andits application to earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research,1994,3(3):325-333.
[4]Yin XiangChu,Chen XueZhong,Wang YuCang,et al.Development of a new approach to earth-quake prediction:Load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pageoph,2000,157(11-12):2365-2383.
[5]宋治平,尹祥础,陈学忠.加卸载响应比的时空演化特征及其对地震三要素的预测意义[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):179-186.
[6]尹祥础,张晖辉,彭克银,等.加卸载响应比理论的新进展及其对中国大陆未来地震趋势的预测[A].中国地震趋势研究(2004年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2003.282-285.
[7]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.多时空尺度加卸载响应比扫描预测2005年中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国地震趋势研究(2005年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2004.285-292.
[8]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.从加卸载响应比的变化预测中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2006年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2005.92-96.
[9]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙,等.从加卸载响应比的时空演化预测中国大陆未来1—3年地震趋势的初步研究[A].中国地震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006.90-95.
[10]Yin Xiangchu,Chen Xuezhong,Song Zhiping,et al.A new approach to earthquake prediction-theload/unload response ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pageoph,1995,145(3/4):701-715.
[11]Yongxian Zhang,Xiangchu Yin,Keyin Peng.Study on spatial and temporal variation of LURRinsouthern california andits i mplicationfor earthquake tendencyin this region[A].3rd APEC Cooper-ation for Earthquake Si mulation Workshop Proceedings[C].Edited by A.Donnellan and Peter Mo-ra,Goprint,Brisbane,2003.365-374.
[12]Yongxian Zhang,Xiangchu Yin,Keyin Peng.Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURRand Its I m-plication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California[J].Pageoph,2004,161(11-12):2359-2367.
[13]张晖辉,尹祥础,梁乃刚,等.美国西部地区加卸载响应比的时空扫描及其地震趋势研究[J].地震,2005,25(3):20-26.
[14]Zhang Huihui,Yin Xiangchu,Liang Naigang.The spatial variation of LURR and seismic tendencyin western United States[J].Earthquake Researchin China,2005,19(3):338-345.
[15]Yongxian Zhang,Yongjia Wu,Xiangchu Yin,et al.A Study of the Different Characteristics of theLURRand State Vector before Strong Earthquakes in Southern California since 1980[J].Pure andApplied Geophysics,2008,165(3-4):737-748.
[16]Yin Xiangchu,Mora P,Peng K,et al.Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energyrelease critical region scaling and earthquake prediction[J].Pageoph,2002,159(9):2511-2523.
[17]Yin Xiangchu,Peng Keyin,Yu Huaizhong,et al.Scaling of LURR Critical Region[A].3rd APECCooperation for Earthquake Si mulation Workshop Proceedings[D].Edited by A.Donnellan and Pe-ter Mora,Goprint,Brisbane,2003.359-364.
[18]Yin Xiangchu,Zhang Langping,Zhang Huihui,et al.LURR′s Twenty Years and Its Perspective,Pure Appl.Geophys,2006,163(11-12):2317-2341.
[19]张晖辉.非均匀脆性介质的灾变预测—加卸载响应比理论的研究与实践[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2006.
[20]张晖辉,尹祥础,梁乃刚.中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究[J].中国地震,2005,21(4):486-495.
[21]Harris R A.Introduction to Special Section:Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and I mplication forSeismic Hazard[J].J Goephys Res,1998,103:24347-24358.
[22]Resernberg P A,Si mpson R W.Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Pro-duced by the Loma Preita Earthquake[J].Science,1992,255:1687-1690.
[2]尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预测[J].中国科学,1991,21(5):512-518.
[3]Yin Xiangchu,Chen Xuezhong,Song Zhiping.The load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory andits application to earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research,1994,3(3):325-333.
[4]Yin XiangChu,Chen XueZhong,Wang YuCang,et al.Development of a new approach to earth-quake prediction:Load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pageoph,2000,157(11-12):2365-2383.
[5]宋治平,尹祥础,陈学忠.加卸载响应比的时空演化特征及其对地震三要素的预测意义[J].地震学报,1996,18(2):179-186.
[6]尹祥础,张晖辉,彭克银,等.加卸载响应比理论的新进展及其对中国大陆未来地震趋势的预测[A].中国地震趋势研究(2004年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2003.282-285.
[7]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.多时空尺度加卸载响应比扫描预测2005年中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国地震趋势研究(2005年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2004.285-292.
[8]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.从加卸载响应比的变化预测中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2006年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2005.92-96.
[9]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙,等.从加卸载响应比的时空演化预测中国大陆未来1—3年地震趋势的初步研究[A].中国地震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006.90-95.
[10]Yin Xiangchu,Chen Xuezhong,Song Zhiping,et al.A new approach to earthquake prediction-theload/unload response ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pageoph,1995,145(3/4):701-715.
[11]Yongxian Zhang,Xiangchu Yin,Keyin Peng.Study on spatial and temporal variation of LURRinsouthern california andits i mplicationfor earthquake tendencyin this region[A].3rd APEC Cooper-ation for Earthquake Si mulation Workshop Proceedings[C].Edited by A.Donnellan and Peter Mo-ra,Goprint,Brisbane,2003.365-374.
[12]Yongxian Zhang,Xiangchu Yin,Keyin Peng.Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURRand Its I m-plication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California[J].Pageoph,2004,161(11-12):2359-2367.
[13]张晖辉,尹祥础,梁乃刚,等.美国西部地区加卸载响应比的时空扫描及其地震趋势研究[J].地震,2005,25(3):20-26.
[14]Zhang Huihui,Yin Xiangchu,Liang Naigang.The spatial variation of LURR and seismic tendencyin western United States[J].Earthquake Researchin China,2005,19(3):338-345.
[15]Yongxian Zhang,Yongjia Wu,Xiangchu Yin,et al.A Study of the Different Characteristics of theLURRand State Vector before Strong Earthquakes in Southern California since 1980[J].Pure andApplied Geophysics,2008,165(3-4):737-748.
[16]Yin Xiangchu,Mora P,Peng K,et al.Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energyrelease critical region scaling and earthquake prediction[J].Pageoph,2002,159(9):2511-2523.
[17]Yin Xiangchu,Peng Keyin,Yu Huaizhong,et al.Scaling of LURR Critical Region[A].3rd APECCooperation for Earthquake Si mulation Workshop Proceedings[D].Edited by A.Donnellan and Pe-ter Mora,Goprint,Brisbane,2003.359-364.
[18]Yin Xiangchu,Zhang Langping,Zhang Huihui,et al.LURR′s Twenty Years and Its Perspective,Pure Appl.Geophys,2006,163(11-12):2317-2341.
[19]张晖辉.非均匀脆性介质的灾变预测—加卸载响应比理论的研究与实践[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2006.
[20]张晖辉,尹祥础,梁乃刚.中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究[J].中国地震,2005,21(4):486-495.
[21]Harris R A.Introduction to Special Section:Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and I mplication forSeismic Hazard[J].J Goephys Res,1998,103:24347-24358.
[22]Resernberg P A,Si mpson R W.Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Pro-duced by the Loma Preita Earthquake[J].Science,1992,255:1687-1690.
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