中国大陆地区中强地震前加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究
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摘要
加卸载响应比理论是近年来提出的地震预测方法。本文进行了加卸载响应比异常时间尺度的统计研究,其中包括中国大陆地区5.0~8.1级的部分中强地震共30个震例,并得出加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与未来地震震级之间的拟合函数。结果表明,地震前加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与未来地震的震级具有正变关系,即震级越高,地震前加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度越长。根据加卸载响应比异常的时间尺度与震级之间的关系可以估计未来地震的发震时间,同时,可以确定加卸载响应比时空扫描过程中时间长度的大小。
Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR) is a new approach to earthquake prediction which was put forward in recent years.In this paper,statistic study of LURR anomaly temporal scale is conducted,which include 30 moderately strong earthquakes with magnitude 5.0～8.1 on the Chinese mainland.The fitting function between the LURR anomaly temporal scale and the magnitude of future earthquake has been obtained.The results show that the LURR anomaly temporal scale should be scale with the future earthquake magnitude,i.e.,the bigger of the magnitude of the future earthquake,the longer the LURR anomaly temporal scale.The seismic time of future earthquake could be estimated according to relation of the LURR anomaly temporal scale and future earthquake magnitude.At the same time,the temporal scale could also be determined in the LURR spatial scanning.
Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR) is a new approach to earthquake prediction which was put forward in recent years.In this paper,statistic study of LURR anomaly temporal scale is conducted,which include 30 moderately strong earthquakes with magnitude 5.0～8.1 on the Chinese mainland.The fitting function between the LURR anomaly temporal scale and the magnitude of future earthquake has been obtained.The results show that the LURR anomaly temporal scale should be scale with the future earthquake magnitude,i.e.,the bigger of the magnitude of the future earthquake,the longer the LURR anomaly temporal scale.The seismic time of future earthquake could be estimated according to relation of the LURR anomaly temporal scale and future earthquake magnitude.At the same time,the temporal scale could also be determined in the LURR spatial scanning.
引文
刘桂萍、马丽等,1994,首都圈地区中等地震前响应比特征的研究,地震,14(6),34~39。
彭克银,2000,加卸载响应比理论若干问题的深入研究及其三维数值模拟,中国地震局地球物理研究所博士学位论文,北京,2000年12月。
王海涛、彭克银、张永仙等,1998,新疆伽师强震群过程中加卸载响应比变化特征,科学通报,43(2),1109~1111。
王海涛,1999,加卸载响应比理论在地震预报中的应用综合研究,中国地震局地球物理研究所博士学位论文,北京,1999年1月。
许忠淮、王素云、黄雨蕊,1989,由大量的地震资料推断的我国大陆构造应力场,地球物理学报,32(6),636~647。
尹祥础、郑天愉,1982,地震孕育过程的流变模式,中国科学(B辑),2,922~930。
尹祥础,1985,固体力学,北京:地震出版社。
尹祥础,1987,地震预测新途径的探索,中国地震,3(1),1~7。
尹祥础、尹灿,1991,非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预测,中国科学,5,512~518。
尹祥础、陈学忠、宋志平等,1996,关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义,中国地震,12(3),331~335。
尹祥础,张晖辉,余怀忠等2004,加卸载响应比理论的新进展及其对中国大陆未来地震趋势的预测,自:中国地震局分析预报中心编,中国地震趋势预测研究(2004年度),北京:地震出版社,282~285。
郑天愉、尹祥础,1983,断层的亚临界扩展和地震的孕育过程,科学通报,28(21),1081~1085。
张晖辉、颜玉定、余怀忠等,2004,循环载荷下大试件岩石破坏声发射实验———岩石破坏前兆的研究,岩石力学与工程学报,23(21),3621~3628。
Bowman,D.D.,Ouillon,G.,Sammis,C.G.,et al.,1998,An observational test of the critical earthquake concept,J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10),24359~24372.
Harris,R.A.,1998,Introduction to Special Section:Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and Implication for Seismic Hazard,J.Goephys.Res.,103(B10),24347~24358.
Jaume,S.C.and Sykes,L.R.,1999,Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior tolarge and great earthquakes,Pure and Applied Geophysics,155(2-4),279~306.
Ohnaka M.,2004a,Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake,Earth Planets Space,56(8),773~793.
Ohnaka,M.,2004b,A constitutive scaling law for shear rupture that is inherently scale-dependent,and physical scaling of nucleation timeto critical point,Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(9-10),1915~1929.
Mora,P.,Wang,Y.C.,Yin C.,et al.,2002,Simulation of Load-unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice SolidModel,Pure and Applied Geophysics,159(10),2525~2536.
Resernberg,P.A.and Simpson,R.W.,1992,Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Produced by the Loma PreitaEarthquake,Science,255,1687~1690.
Wang Yu-cang,Yin Xiang-chu and Wang Hai-tao,1999,The Simulation of Rock Experiment on Load/Unload Response Ratio onEarthquake Prediction,Earthquake Research in China,14(2),126~130.
Wang Y.C.,P.Mora,Yin C.and Place D.,2004,Statistic Tests of Load-unload Response Ratio Signals by lattice Solid Model:Implication to Tidal Triggering and Earthquake Prediction,Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(9-10),1829~1839.
Xia,M.F.,Wei,Y.J.,Ke,F.J.,et al.,2002,Critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctua-tions in catastrophe rupture,Pure andApplied Geophysics,159(10),2491~2509.
Xu,X.H.,Xia,M.F.,Ke,F.J.,et al.,2004,Experimental evidence of critical sensitivity in catastrophe,The 4th ACES Workshop,July 9-14,2004,Beijing,China.
Yin Xiang-chu,Chen Xue-zhong,Song Zhi-ping,et al.,1995,A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory,Pure and Applied Geophysics,145(3/4),701~715.
Yin Xiang-chu,Wang Yu-cang,Peng Ke-yin,et al.,2000,Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-Load/unloadResponse Ratio(LURR)Theory,Pure Applied Geophysics,157(11-12),2365~2383.
Yin Xiang-chu,P.Mora,Peng Ke-yin,et al.,2002,Load-unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release,CriticalRegion Scaling and Earthquake Prediction,Pure and Applied Geophysics,159(10),2511~2524.
Yin Xiang-chu,Yu Huai-zhong,Victor Kukshenko,et al.,2004,Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR),Accelerating Moment/EnergyRelease(AM/ER)and State Vector Evolution as Precursors of Failure of Rock Specimens,Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(11-12),2405~2416.
Yin Xiang-chu,Zhang Hui-hui,Zhang Lang-ping,2006,LURR’s Twenty years and its perspective,Pure Pure and Applied Geophysics(accepted).
Zhang,X.H.,Xu,X.H.,Xia,M.F.,et al.,2004,Critical sensitivity in driven nonlinear threshold systems,Pure and AppliedGeophysics,161(9-10),1931~1944.
Zoback,M.L.,1992,First-and second-order patterns of stress in the lithosphere:The world stress map project,J.Geophys.Res.,97(B8),11703~11728.
彭克银,2000,加卸载响应比理论若干问题的深入研究及其三维数值模拟,中国地震局地球物理研究所博士学位论文,北京,2000年12月。
王海涛、彭克银、张永仙等,1998,新疆伽师强震群过程中加卸载响应比变化特征,科学通报,43(2),1109~1111。
王海涛,1999,加卸载响应比理论在地震预报中的应用综合研究,中国地震局地球物理研究所博士学位论文,北京,1999年1月。
许忠淮、王素云、黄雨蕊,1989,由大量的地震资料推断的我国大陆构造应力场,地球物理学报,32(6),636~647。
尹祥础、郑天愉,1982,地震孕育过程的流变模式,中国科学(B辑),2,922~930。
尹祥础,1985,固体力学,北京:地震出版社。
尹祥础,1987,地震预测新途径的探索,中国地震,3(1),1~7。
尹祥础、尹灿,1991,非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预测,中国科学,5,512~518。
尹祥础、陈学忠、宋志平等,1996,关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义,中国地震,12(3),331~335。
尹祥础,张晖辉,余怀忠等2004,加卸载响应比理论的新进展及其对中国大陆未来地震趋势的预测,自:中国地震局分析预报中心编,中国地震趋势预测研究(2004年度),北京:地震出版社,282~285。
郑天愉、尹祥础,1983,断层的亚临界扩展和地震的孕育过程,科学通报,28(21),1081~1085。
张晖辉、颜玉定、余怀忠等,2004,循环载荷下大试件岩石破坏声发射实验———岩石破坏前兆的研究,岩石力学与工程学报,23(21),3621~3628。
Bowman,D.D.,Ouillon,G.,Sammis,C.G.,et al.,1998,An observational test of the critical earthquake concept,J.Geophys.Res.,103(B10),24359~24372.
Harris,R.A.,1998,Introduction to Special Section:Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and Implication for Seismic Hazard,J.Goephys.Res.,103(B10),24347~24358.
Jaume,S.C.and Sykes,L.R.,1999,Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior tolarge and great earthquakes,Pure and Applied Geophysics,155(2-4),279~306.
Ohnaka M.,2004a,Earthquake cycles and physical modeling of the process leading up to a large earthquake,Earth Planets Space,56(8),773~793.
Ohnaka,M.,2004b,A constitutive scaling law for shear rupture that is inherently scale-dependent,and physical scaling of nucleation timeto critical point,Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(9-10),1915~1929.
Mora,P.,Wang,Y.C.,Yin C.,et al.,2002,Simulation of Load-unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice SolidModel,Pure and Applied Geophysics,159(10),2525~2536.
Resernberg,P.A.and Simpson,R.W.,1992,Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Produced by the Loma PreitaEarthquake,Science,255,1687~1690.
Wang Yu-cang,Yin Xiang-chu and Wang Hai-tao,1999,The Simulation of Rock Experiment on Load/Unload Response Ratio onEarthquake Prediction,Earthquake Research in China,14(2),126~130.
Wang Y.C.,P.Mora,Yin C.and Place D.,2004,Statistic Tests of Load-unload Response Ratio Signals by lattice Solid Model:Implication to Tidal Triggering and Earthquake Prediction,Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(9-10),1829~1839.
Xia,M.F.,Wei,Y.J.,Ke,F.J.,et al.,2002,Critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctua-tions in catastrophe rupture,Pure andApplied Geophysics,159(10),2491~2509.
Xu,X.H.,Xia,M.F.,Ke,F.J.,et al.,2004,Experimental evidence of critical sensitivity in catastrophe,The 4th ACES Workshop,July 9-14,2004,Beijing,China.
Yin Xiang-chu,Chen Xue-zhong,Song Zhi-ping,et al.,1995,A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory,Pure and Applied Geophysics,145(3/4),701~715.
Yin Xiang-chu,Wang Yu-cang,Peng Ke-yin,et al.,2000,Development of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-Load/unloadResponse Ratio(LURR)Theory,Pure Applied Geophysics,157(11-12),2365~2383.
Yin Xiang-chu,P.Mora,Peng Ke-yin,et al.,2002,Load-unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release,CriticalRegion Scaling and Earthquake Prediction,Pure and Applied Geophysics,159(10),2511~2524.
Yin Xiang-chu,Yu Huai-zhong,Victor Kukshenko,et al.,2004,Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR),Accelerating Moment/EnergyRelease(AM/ER)and State Vector Evolution as Precursors of Failure of Rock Specimens,Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(11-12),2405~2416.
Yin Xiang-chu,Zhang Hui-hui,Zhang Lang-ping,2006,LURR’s Twenty years and its perspective,Pure Pure and Applied Geophysics(accepted).
Zhang,X.H.,Xu,X.H.,Xia,M.F.,et al.,2004,Critical sensitivity in driven nonlinear threshold systems,Pure and AppliedGeophysics,161(9-10),1931~1944.
Zoback,M.L.,1992,First-and second-order patterns of stress in the lithosphere:The world stress map project,J.Geophys.Res.,97(B8),11703~11728.
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