寂静地震与地震预测的物理问题
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摘要
寂静地震是指发生了缓慢的位错、但几乎不辐射地震波的“地震” .在目前的地震预测的物理学研究中 ,通常是通过计算历史上曾经发生过的地震所引起的应力变化 ,或者通过研究地震活动的统计性质或“图像动力学” ,来推测一个断层带上发生地震的危险性 .寂静地震的信息的缺失 ,形成了地震预测的物理学研究中的一个很大的“盲区” ,而在相当程度上 ,解决地震预测的物理问题的主要困难和可能的突破的希望 ,也许就在于此 .寂静地震的研究目前还很不深入 .关于寂静地震的性质 ,文章作者提出两个猜想 :(1)寂静地震的频度 ,满足类似于GR定律的幂律分布 ;(2 )最大的寂静地震的地震矩 ,与“可见”的最大地震的地震矩相当 .
A silent earthquake refers to a slow slipping event which does not radiate seismic waves. In current earthquake prediction, seismic hazard is generally estimated through the stress change caused by previous earthquakes and/or deformation, or through the statistics or pattern dynamics of seismic activity. Lack of information about silent earthquakes has left a missing piece in the physics of earthquakes, but it is this very piece that may lead to a breakthrough in earthquake prediction. We review the latest developments in this area, and propose two conjectures on the properties of silent earthquakes: (1) The frequency-magnitude relation of silent earthquakes satisfies Gutenberg-Richter′s power law; and (2) The maximum silent earthquake has a seismic moment comparable to that of the maximum ‘visible’ earthquake.
A silent earthquake refers to a slow slipping event which does not radiate seismic waves. In current earthquake prediction, seismic hazard is generally estimated through the stress change caused by previous earthquakes and/or deformation, or through the statistics or pattern dynamics of seismic activity. Lack of information about silent earthquakes has left a missing piece in the physics of earthquakes, but it is this very piece that may lead to a breakthrough in earthquake prediction. We review the latest developments in this area, and propose two conjectures on the properties of silent earthquakes: (1) The frequency-magnitude relation of silent earthquakes satisfies Gutenberg-Richter′s power law; and (2) The maximum silent earthquake has a seismic moment comparable to that of the maximum ‘visible’ earthquake.
引文
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[2]SteinRS .Nature,1999,402:605
[3]KanamoriH ,KikuchiM .Nature,1993,361:714
[4]BerozaGC ,JordanTH .J.Geophys.Res.,1990,95:2485
[5]SacksIS,SuyehiroS ,LindeATetal.Nature,1978,275:599
[6]GladwinMT ,GwytherRL ,HartRH .G .J .Geophys.Res.,1994,99:4559
[7]周硕愚、施顺英、宋永厚等.地壳形变与地震,1996,16(4):1[ZhouSY ,ShiSY ,SongYHetal.CrustalDeformationandEarthquake,1996,16(4):1(inChinese)]
[8]CrescentiniL ,AmorusoA ,ScarpaR .Science,1999,286:212
[9]OzawaS ,MiyazakiS ,HatanakaYetal.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2003,30(6):1283,doi:10.1029/2002GL016665[这是美国地球物理学联合会(AGU)最近开始采用的一种新的引文方案,对电子检索很方便]
[10]KostoglodovV ,SinghSK ,SantiagoJAetal.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2003,30(15):1807,doi:10.1029/2003GL017219
[11]关于TIP方法的理论基础的介绍,参阅:吴忠良,陈运泰.物理,2002,31:365[WuZL .ChenYT .Wuli(Physics),2002,31:365(inChinese)]
[12]PeresanA ,CostaG ,PanzaGF .PAGEOPH ,1999,154:281
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[14]TakaiK ,KumagaiH ,FujiiN .Geophys.Res.Lett.,1999,26:2113
[15]ReilingerRE ,ErgintavS ,BuergmannRetal.Science,2000,289:1519
[16]RundleJB ,KleinW ,TiampoKetal.Phys.Rev.,2000,E61:2418
[17]WardSN .Geophys.J.Int.,1998,134:172
[18]WardSN .Geophys.J.Int.,1998,135:1011
[19]AkiK .In:SimpsonDW ,RichardsPG (eds.),EarthquakePre diction:anInternationalReview.1981,Washington,D .C .:AGU ,566
[20]LindeAT ,GladwinMT ,JohnstonMJSetal.Nature,1996,383:65
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