中期强震预报的TIP方法原理及其应用

详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文

英文篇名：PRINCIPLE OF TIP METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO MEDIUM-LONG TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES 中文刊名：地震学刊 英文刊名：Journal of Seismology 作者：陆锦花 ; 朱元清 ; 郭育 英文作者：Lu Jinhua ; Zhu Yuanqing 英文作者：(Seismological Bureau of Shanghai province) 英文作者：Guo Yu (Seismology Bureau of Liaoning province) 中文关键词：地震预报 ; Tip方法 英文关键词：earthquake prediction ; TIP method 出版日期：1994-03-30 机构：上海市地震局,上海市地震局,辽宁省地震局 助理工程师 上海 200062 ,上海 200062 ,沈阳 110031 年：1994 期：01 出版单位：地震学刊

摘要

在剖析了V.keilia-Borok研究小组近年来提出的强震预报(Time of increasedprobability)方法的基础上,本文简要地介绍了该方法的原理,采用1970-01-01至1991-12-31的全国地震目录,通过两种途径,用Tip方法对云南省和台湾省发生的7级以上(含7级)强震做了检验地震目录,通过表明Tip方法对强震的预报成功率还是较高的.在此基础上,我们又试验将该方法推广应用于云南省发生的6.5级以上(含6.5级)地震,结果表明适当修改地震流函数后,也可以得到较满意的结果.
The principle of time of increased probability (TIP) method is briefly presented in terms of analysis of the method of strong earthquake prediction propoeed recently by V. Keilis-Borok research group. The strong earthquakes (Ms≥7. 0) of Tawain and Yunnan provinces were retrievely predicted in two way with TIP method using earthquake caralog of China from 1 Jan. , 1970 to 31 Dec. . 1991. It has been shown that successful rate of strong earthquake prediction is still higher. Then , this method is extended to the application of prediction of the earthquakes (Ms≥6. 5) occurred in Yunnan province, and the satisfactory results may be attained so long as the function of earthquak flow is modified.

引文

1 (俄)凯里斯鲍罗克编,黄德瑜,吴忠良,周翠英编译,中期地震预报Tip算法程序使用指南与练习,北京:地震出版社,1992．
    2 王碧泉,陈祖荫,模式识别理论方法和应用,北京:地震出版社,1989．
    3 许绍燮,地震活动性预报地震方法.地震学报,1993,15(2) .