中国农村人口贫困变动研究——基于多维脱贫指数测度
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摘要
本文通过多维贫困识别方法构建相应指数,提出了在返贫和脱贫不同方向上对多维贫困的变动进行分解的思路。同时,用2010—2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据对中国农村人口多维贫困的变动进行了分解,得出以下结论:第一,收入依然是农村人口多维贫困的主要维度,但在改善收入贫困的同时应该防范健康维度返贫的风险。第二,农村人口的多维贫困状况在不断改善,但是由于返贫的影响,脱贫的效果受到了较大削弱,因此在注重脱贫的同时,不应忽视返贫的风险。第三,持续贫困人口贫困状况虽然后来有所改善,但是2012年的恶化状况提示我们对于暂时未能脱贫的人口,还需要采取措施缓解其贫困状况。
Based on the index of multidimensional poverty and out of poverty, a shaking off multidimensional poverty recognition method and index is built, and further multidimensional poverty decompose in the direction of sinking back to poverty and shaking off poverty is raised. At the same time, China rural population' multi-dimensional poverty, sinking back to poverty and shaking off poverty are measured and decomposed by using Chinese family panel studies. We get the following conclusions. Firstly, the income of the rural population is still the main dimension of multidimensional poverty, but attentions should be paid to prevent health dimension's sinking back to poverty. Secondly, the multidimensional poverty situation of the rural population is improved, but due to the influence of sinking back to poverty, shaking off poverty' effect has been greatly weakened, so the risk of sinking back to poverty should not be ignored. Thirdly, the worsening situation of the continued poverty population in 2012 suggests that measures should be taken to alleviate the poverty situation for those temporarily unable to shake off poverty.
Based on the index of multidimensional poverty and out of poverty, a shaking off multidimensional poverty recognition method and index is built, and further multidimensional poverty decompose in the direction of sinking back to poverty and shaking off poverty is raised. At the same time, China rural population' multi-dimensional poverty, sinking back to poverty and shaking off poverty are measured and decomposed by using Chinese family panel studies. We get the following conclusions. Firstly, the income of the rural population is still the main dimension of multidimensional poverty, but attentions should be paid to prevent health dimension's sinking back to poverty. Secondly, the multidimensional poverty situation of the rural population is improved, but due to the influence of sinking back to poverty, shaking off poverty' effect has been greatly weakened, so the risk of sinking back to poverty should not be ignored. Thirdly, the worsening situation of the continued poverty population in 2012 suggests that measures should be taken to alleviate the poverty situation for those temporarily unable to shake off poverty.
引文
高艳云、马瑜,2013:《多维框架下中国家庭贫困的动态识别》,《统计研究》第12期。
郭熙保、周强,2017:《中国农村代际多维贫困实证研究》,《中国人口科学》第4期。
蒋南平、郑万军,2017:《中国农民工返贫测度问题》,《中国农村经济》第6期。
王朝明、姚毅,2010:《中国城乡贫困动态演化的实证研究:1990—2005年》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第3期。
王春超、叶琴,2014:《中国农民工多维贫困的演进——基于收入与教育维度的考察》,《经济研究》第12期。
夏庆杰、宋丽娜、S. Appleton,2007:《中国城镇变化的趋势和模式》,《经济研究》第9期。
姚毅,2012:《城乡贫困动态演化的实证研究——基于家庭微观面板数据的解读》,《财经科学》第5期。
叶初升、赵锐,2013:《中国农村的动态贫困:状态转化与持续——基于中国健康与营养调查微观数据的生存分析》,《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》第4期。
章元、万广华、史清华,2012:《中国农村的暂时性贫困是否真的更严重》,《世界经济》第2期。
张志国、聂荣,2016:《中国农村家庭多维贫困动态研究》,《农村经济与科技》第1期。
邹薇、方迎风,2011:《关于中国贫困的动态多维度研究》,《中国人口科学》第6期。
Alkire,S., and J. Foster, 2011,“Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measurement”, Journal of Public Economics, 95(7-8): 476-487.
Baulch, B.,and H.D.Vu,2011, “Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam,2002 to 2006”, in Why Poverty Persist:Poverty Dynamics in Asia and Africa,edited by B.Baulch, Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Press.
Baulch, B, 2011, “Overview: Poverty Dynamics and Persistence in Asia and Africa”, in Why Poverty Persists: Poverty Dynamics in Asia and Africa,edited by B.Baulch, Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Press.
Fouarge,D., and R.Layte,2005,“Welfare regimes and Poverty Dynamics: The Duration and Recurrence of Poverty Spells in Europe”,Journal of Social Policy,34(3):407-426.
Haddad, L., and A.Ahmaed.2003,“Chronic and Transitory Poverty: Evidence from Egypt,1997—1999”, World Development,31(1):71-83.
Jalan,J., and M.Ravallion,1998, “Transient Poverty in Post-reform China”,Journal of Comparative Economics, 26:338-357.
Martinez,A., and F.Perales, 2017, “The Dynamics of Multidimensional Poverty in Contemporary Australia”,Social Indicators Research, 130(2):479-496.
Mark, T., R. Walker, and G.Williams,2008, “Measuring Poverty in Britain as a Multi-dimensional Concept,1991—2003”, Journal of Social Policy,37(4):597-620.
郭熙保、周强,2017:《中国农村代际多维贫困实证研究》,《中国人口科学》第4期。
蒋南平、郑万军,2017:《中国农民工返贫测度问题》,《中国农村经济》第6期。
王朝明、姚毅,2010:《中国城乡贫困动态演化的实证研究:1990—2005年》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第3期。
王春超、叶琴,2014:《中国农民工多维贫困的演进——基于收入与教育维度的考察》,《经济研究》第12期。
夏庆杰、宋丽娜、S. Appleton,2007:《中国城镇变化的趋势和模式》,《经济研究》第9期。
姚毅,2012:《城乡贫困动态演化的实证研究——基于家庭微观面板数据的解读》,《财经科学》第5期。
叶初升、赵锐,2013:《中国农村的动态贫困:状态转化与持续——基于中国健康与营养调查微观数据的生存分析》,《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》第4期。
章元、万广华、史清华,2012:《中国农村的暂时性贫困是否真的更严重》,《世界经济》第2期。
张志国、聂荣,2016:《中国农村家庭多维贫困动态研究》,《农村经济与科技》第1期。
邹薇、方迎风,2011:《关于中国贫困的动态多维度研究》,《中国人口科学》第6期。
Alkire,S., and J. Foster, 2011,“Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measurement”, Journal of Public Economics, 95(7-8): 476-487.
Baulch, B.,and H.D.Vu,2011, “Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam,2002 to 2006”, in Why Poverty Persist:Poverty Dynamics in Asia and Africa,edited by B.Baulch, Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Press.
Baulch, B, 2011, “Overview: Poverty Dynamics and Persistence in Asia and Africa”, in Why Poverty Persists: Poverty Dynamics in Asia and Africa,edited by B.Baulch, Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Press.
Fouarge,D., and R.Layte,2005,“Welfare regimes and Poverty Dynamics: The Duration and Recurrence of Poverty Spells in Europe”,Journal of Social Policy,34(3):407-426.
Haddad, L., and A.Ahmaed.2003,“Chronic and Transitory Poverty: Evidence from Egypt,1997—1999”, World Development,31(1):71-83.
Jalan,J., and M.Ravallion,1998, “Transient Poverty in Post-reform China”,Journal of Comparative Economics, 26:338-357.
Martinez,A., and F.Perales, 2017, “The Dynamics of Multidimensional Poverty in Contemporary Australia”,Social Indicators Research, 130(2):479-496.
Mark, T., R. Walker, and G.Williams,2008, “Measuring Poverty in Britain as a Multi-dimensional Concept,1991—2003”, Journal of Social Policy,37(4):597-620.