1960—2015年呼伦贝尔草原气温和降水格局变化特征
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摘要
[目的]利用1960—2015年呼伦贝尔草原区逐日气象数据,分析了该地区这56年来气温和降水的分布与变化规律。[方法]文章采用Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验和Sen's斜率估计分析了温度、降水变化的趋势和变化速度。[结果](1)呼伦贝尔草原区过去56年中气温呈现出极显著波动增加的趋势,其中第二季度增温的趋势最明显,年均温增加中值0. 05℃。海拉尔区增温速度为草原区最快,年增加中值0. 04℃。(2)呼伦贝尔草原区这56年中降水呈现出不显著的波动下降趋势,年降水减少中值0. 41mm。其中第三季度降水量显著减少,年降水减少中值0. 92mm,第一、四季度降水量显著增加,年降水增加中值0. 07～0. 23mm。第二季度变化较小。满洲里市降水量极显著下降,下降速度为草原区最高,年降水减少中值1. 25mm。(3) 1～5mm降水次数和总降水贡献呈显著增加趋势,年增加中值0. 102%,5～30mm降水次数和降水贡献呈现减少趋势,单次降水30mm以上频率很低。(4)历时1～2d的降水是研究区最主要的连续降水类型,独立单日降水呈现不显著增加趋势,2～3d连续降水呈现不显著减少趋势,连续4d和4d以上降水事件较为罕见。[结论]呼伦贝尔草原区过去56年整体看呈现出暖干化的趋势,年内尺度看降水呈现均匀化趋势,第三季度减少,第一、四季度增加。降水格局表现为分散化趋势,极端降水事件减少,小雨增加;连续降水减少,单日独立降水增加。
By using daily meteorological data of Hulunber grassland from 1960 to 2015,this study analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and variation of temperature and precipitation pattern in 56 years.Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen' s non-parametric estimation were applied to analyze temperature and precipitation variation trend and rate. The results show that(1) Temperature increase significantly in Hulunber grassland in the past 56 years,quarter 2nd has the most significance with annual increasement of 0. 05℃,Hailar district has the most increase speed with annual increasement of 0. 04℃.(2) Precipitation reduction is not significant,however,quarter 3rd shows significant reducing with annual decrease of 0. 92 mm and quarter 1st and 4th shows significant growing with annual increasement of 0. 07 ～ 0. 23 mm. Precipitation reduction is very significant in Manchuria and it has the most reducing speed with annual decrease of 1. 25 mm in Hulunber.(3) 1 ～ 5mm precipitation frequency and precipitation contribution show significant increase trend,with annual increasement of 0.102%,5 ～ 30 mm precipitation frequency and precipitation contribution show some reducing trend with no significance. Only few days have precipitation over 30 mm in Hulunber grassland.(4) Precipitation lasting 1 ～ 2 day is the main raining type,1 day precipitation shows growth trend and 2 ～ 3 day precipitation shows reduce trend. Precipitation lasting or over 4 days are very rare in Hulunber grassland. In the past 56 years,Hulunber grassland has showed warming and drying trend,in quarter scale precipitation has tended to homogenization-Quarter 3rd precipitation has reduced and quarter 1st and 4th precipitation has increased. Precipitation tend to decentralization-extreme rain invents reduces and small rainfall increase,long-term rain invents reduces and one-day rainfall increase.
By using daily meteorological data of Hulunber grassland from 1960 to 2015,this study analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and variation of temperature and precipitation pattern in 56 years.Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen' s non-parametric estimation were applied to analyze temperature and precipitation variation trend and rate. The results show that(1) Temperature increase significantly in Hulunber grassland in the past 56 years,quarter 2nd has the most significance with annual increasement of 0. 05℃,Hailar district has the most increase speed with annual increasement of 0. 04℃.(2) Precipitation reduction is not significant,however,quarter 3rd shows significant reducing with annual decrease of 0. 92 mm and quarter 1st and 4th shows significant growing with annual increasement of 0. 07 ～ 0. 23 mm. Precipitation reduction is very significant in Manchuria and it has the most reducing speed with annual decrease of 1. 25 mm in Hulunber.(3) 1 ～ 5mm precipitation frequency and precipitation contribution show significant increase trend,with annual increasement of 0.102%,5 ～ 30 mm precipitation frequency and precipitation contribution show some reducing trend with no significance. Only few days have precipitation over 30 mm in Hulunber grassland.(4) Precipitation lasting 1 ～ 2 day is the main raining type,1 day precipitation shows growth trend and 2 ～ 3 day precipitation shows reduce trend. Precipitation lasting or over 4 days are very rare in Hulunber grassland. In the past 56 years,Hulunber grassland has showed warming and drying trend,in quarter scale precipitation has tended to homogenization-Quarter 3rd precipitation has reduced and quarter 1st and 4th precipitation has increased. Precipitation tend to decentralization-extreme rain invents reduces and small rainfall increase,long-term rain invents reduces and one-day rainfall increase.
引文
[1]WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORTCLIMATE CHANGE 2013:THE PHYSICAL SCIENCEBASIS.
[2]王志伟,翟盘茂,张洪涛.1950-2000年中国北方干旱气候变化.地理学报:2003,13(4):480-487.
[3]包刚,吴琼,阿拉腾图雅,等.近30年内蒙古气温和降水量变化分析.内蒙古师范大学学报,2012,41(6):668-674.
[4]徐慧,陈鸣,黄进.内蒙古地区近53a降水格局的时空变化特征.人民黄河,2015,37(10):35-38.
[5]付长超,刘吉平,刘志明.近60年东北地区气候变化时空分异规律的研究.干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(12):60-65.
[6]高西宁,王耸,郝志新,等.东北地区近50年降水量变化特征的分区.沈阳农业大学学报,2015,46(3):270-276.
[7]陈昌春,张余庆,王腊春.基于RClimDex模型的江西省极端降水时空变化研究.中国农村水利水电,2013(11):41-45.
[8]李庆祥,彭嘉栋,沈艳.1900-2009年中国均一化逐月降水数据集研制.地理学报,2012,67(3):301-311.
[9]曹洁萍,迟道才,武立强,等.Mann-Kendall检验方法在降水趋势分析中的应用研究.农业科技与装备,2008,5:35-40.
[10]孙翠凤,窦坤,吴雷柱,等.鲁西南近50年降水量和雨日雨强变化趋势.农业资源与农业区划,2014,35(2):29-34.
[11]汪攀,刘毅敏.Sen's斜率估计与Mann-Kendall法在设备运行趋势分析中的应用.武汉科技大学学报,2014,37(6):454-457.
[12]赵秀兰.近50年中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响.东北农业大学学报2010,41(9):144-149.
[13]王劲松,陈发虎,张强,等.亚洲中部干旱半干旱区近100年来的气温变化研究.高原气象,2008,27(5):1035-1045.
[14]翟献帅,苏筠,方修琦.东北地区近30年来温度变化的时空差异.中国农业资源与区划,2017,32(2):20-27.
[15]兰玉坤.内蒙古地区近5O年气候变化特征研究.北京:中国农业科学研究院,2007,1-37.
[16]钱正安,宋敏红,李万源,等.全球、中蒙干旱区及其部分地区降水分布细节.高原气象,2011,30(1):1-12.
[17]尤莉,戴新刚,张宇.1961-2008年内蒙古降水极端事件分析.气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):411-416.
[18]张雪艳,胡石锋,庄大方,等.蒙古高原NDVI的空间格局及空间分异.地理研究,2009,28(1):10-18.
[19]张美杰.基于GIS的内蒙古旱灾综合评价与分区研究.呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2012.
[2]王志伟,翟盘茂,张洪涛.1950-2000年中国北方干旱气候变化.地理学报:2003,13(4):480-487.
[3]包刚,吴琼,阿拉腾图雅,等.近30年内蒙古气温和降水量变化分析.内蒙古师范大学学报,2012,41(6):668-674.
[4]徐慧,陈鸣,黄进.内蒙古地区近53a降水格局的时空变化特征.人民黄河,2015,37(10):35-38.
[5]付长超,刘吉平,刘志明.近60年东北地区气候变化时空分异规律的研究.干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(12):60-65.
[6]高西宁,王耸,郝志新,等.东北地区近50年降水量变化特征的分区.沈阳农业大学学报,2015,46(3):270-276.
[7]陈昌春,张余庆,王腊春.基于RClimDex模型的江西省极端降水时空变化研究.中国农村水利水电,2013(11):41-45.
[8]李庆祥,彭嘉栋,沈艳.1900-2009年中国均一化逐月降水数据集研制.地理学报,2012,67(3):301-311.
[9]曹洁萍,迟道才,武立强,等.Mann-Kendall检验方法在降水趋势分析中的应用研究.农业科技与装备,2008,5:35-40.
[10]孙翠凤,窦坤,吴雷柱,等.鲁西南近50年降水量和雨日雨强变化趋势.农业资源与农业区划,2014,35(2):29-34.
[11]汪攀,刘毅敏.Sen's斜率估计与Mann-Kendall法在设备运行趋势分析中的应用.武汉科技大学学报,2014,37(6):454-457.
[12]赵秀兰.近50年中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响.东北农业大学学报2010,41(9):144-149.
[13]王劲松,陈发虎,张强,等.亚洲中部干旱半干旱区近100年来的气温变化研究.高原气象,2008,27(5):1035-1045.
[14]翟献帅,苏筠,方修琦.东北地区近30年来温度变化的时空差异.中国农业资源与区划,2017,32(2):20-27.
[15]兰玉坤.内蒙古地区近5O年气候变化特征研究.北京:中国农业科学研究院,2007,1-37.
[16]钱正安,宋敏红,李万源,等.全球、中蒙干旱区及其部分地区降水分布细节.高原气象,2011,30(1):1-12.
[17]尤莉,戴新刚,张宇.1961-2008年内蒙古降水极端事件分析.气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):411-416.
[18]张雪艳,胡石锋,庄大方,等.蒙古高原NDVI的空间格局及空间分异.地理研究,2009,28(1):10-18.
[19]张美杰.基于GIS的内蒙古旱灾综合评价与分区研究.呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2012.