基于支持向量回归的陆域天然气水合物成藏预测
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摘要
天然气水合物,俗称"可燃冰",自2008年在青海木里冻土区首次钻获天然气水合物以来,人们已在此地开展了大量的勘查工作,但该区地质情况复杂,天然气水合物成藏规律不清,单一的地球物理方法难以充分利用信息,因此难以有效地圈定出天然气水合物异常区。本文选取木里地区为主要研究区域,综合区内勘查已获得的地球物理、地球化学和地质资料,分析和提取对水合物成藏有利的特征,给出相应的预测变量转化规则。采用支持向量回归方法进行成藏预测研究,并对结果进行评估。结果显示,钻遇水合物的钻井与预测得到的高有利度区吻合,未遇水合物的钻井基本落于低有利度区,算法有效实用,能够提供一定的指导意义。
Natural gas hydrate, commonly known as "combustible ice", had been extensively surveyed. Since the discovery of natural gas hydrate in Muli area of Qinghai province for the first time. However, the geological structure in this area was complex and gas hydrate accumulation rule is unclear. It's difficult for a single geophysics method to make full use of information to effectively find gas hydrate anomalies. In this paper, the features which were favorable for gas hydrate accumulation were extracted from geology, geophysics and geochemistry data In Muli area, and the corresponding transformation rules were proposed. Support vector regression was used to carry out the study of gas hydrate prediction, and the results were evaluated. The results showed that the drilling with hydrates and the drilling without hydrates were consistent with the prediction. The algorithm was effective and practical, and it could offer the guide for future exploration.
Natural gas hydrate, commonly known as "combustible ice", had been extensively surveyed. Since the discovery of natural gas hydrate in Muli area of Qinghai province for the first time. However, the geological structure in this area was complex and gas hydrate accumulation rule is unclear. It's difficult for a single geophysics method to make full use of information to effectively find gas hydrate anomalies. In this paper, the features which were favorable for gas hydrate accumulation were extracted from geology, geophysics and geochemistry data In Muli area, and the corresponding transformation rules were proposed. Support vector regression was used to carry out the study of gas hydrate prediction, and the results were evaluated. The results showed that the drilling with hydrates and the drilling without hydrates were consistent with the prediction. The algorithm was effective and practical, and it could offer the guide for future exploration.
引文
[1]徐明才,刘建勋,柴铭涛,等.青海省天峻县木里地区天然气水合物地震响应特征[J].地质通报,2011. 30(12):1910-1917.XU M C, LIU J X, CHAI M T, et, al. Seismic characteristics of natural gas hydrate in Muli area, Tianjun County, Qinghai province[J]. Geological Bulletin of China, 2011, 30(12):1910-1917.(in Chinese).
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[3]裴发根,何梅兴,仇根根,等.青藏高原冻土区AMT探测天然气水合物采集试验[J].物探与化探,2017. 41(6):1113-1120.PEI F G, HE M X, QIU G G, et al.AMT acquisition experimental study of gas hydrate exploration in the permafrost region of the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration,2017, 41(6):1113-1120.(in Chinese).
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[7]董莉,江沸菠,戴前伟,等.基于支持向量机回归的电阻率成像反演[J].物探与化探, 2017,41(3):505-512.DONG L, JIANG F B, DAI Q W, et al. Electrical resistivity imaging inversion based on support vector regression[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2017, 41(3):505-512.(in Chinese).
[8]卢振权,李永红,王伟超,等.青海木里三露天冻土天然气水合物成藏模式研究[J].现代地质,2015(5):1014-1023.LU Z Q, LI Y H, WANG W C, et al. Study on the accumulation pattern for permafrost-associated gas hydrate in Sanlutian of Muli, Qinghai[J]. Geoscience, 2015(5):1014-1023.(in Chinese).
[9]Makogon Y F, Omelchenko R Y. Commercial gas production from Messoyakha deposit in hydrate conditions[J]. Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering, 2013, 11(3):1-6.(in Chinese).
[10]姜春香,李培,王小江,等.木里地区天然气水合物地震属性分析[J].物探与化探, 2017, 41(6):1019-1026.JIANG C X, LI P, WANG X J, et al. An analysis of seismic attribute characteristics of terrestrial gas hydrate in Muli area[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2017,41(6):1019-1026.(in Chinese).
[11]何梅兴,方慧,裴发根,等.青海木里地区冻土层、断层分布特征与天然气水合物成藏条件分析[J].物探与化探, 2017, 41(6):1133-1141.HE M X, FANG H, PEI F G, et al. Fault and frozen soil distribution characteristics of Muli natural gas hydrate area in Qinghai province[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration,2017, 41(6):1133-1141.(in Chinese).
[12]方慧,裴发根,何梅兴,等.音频大地电磁测深法探测冻土区天然气水合物有效性实验[J].物探与化探. 2017, 41(6):1068-1074.FANG H, PEI F G, HE M X, et al. Effectiveness of audio magnetotelluric sounding for detecting gas hydrate in permafrost regions[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2017, 41(6):1068-1074.(in Chinese).
[13]唐世琪,卢振权,王伟超,等.青海木里三露天冻土区天然气水合物钻孔岩心顶空气组成及指示意义[J].现代地质. 2015(5):1201-1213.TANG S Q, LU Z Q, WANG W C, et al. The indicative significance of gas composition of headspace gases from the gas hydrate drilling holes in the Sanlutian Mine of the Muli Mining area,Qinghai[J]. Geoscience, 2015(5):1201-1213.(in Chinese).
[14]卢振权,唐世琪,王伟超,等.青海木里三露天冻土天然气水合物气源性质研究[J].现代地质,2015(5):995-1001.LU Z Q, TANG S Q, WANG W C, et al. Study on the nature of gas source for permafrost-associated gas hydrate in Sanlutian of Muli, Qinghai[J]. Geoscience, 2015(5):995-1001.(in Chinese).
[15]余小东,武莹,何腊梅.反距离加权网格化插值算法的改进及比较[J].工程地球物理学报. 2013,10(6):900-904.YUXD,WUY,HELM.Improvementandcomparisonofinversedistanceweightedgrid interpolation algorithm[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering Geophysics, 2013, 10(6):900-904.(in Chinese).
[2]许振奎,张胜业.天然气水合物模型的瞬变电磁响应[J].地球物理学进展, 2008(5):1568-1574.XU Z K, ZHANG S Y. On the research of marine gas hydrate deposits using sea-floor transient electromagnetic method[J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2008(5):1568-1574.(in Chinese).
[3]裴发根,何梅兴,仇根根,等.青藏高原冻土区AMT探测天然气水合物采集试验[J].物探与化探,2017. 41(6):1113-1120.PEI F G, HE M X, QIU G G, et al.AMT acquisition experimental study of gas hydrate exploration in the permafrost region of the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration,2017, 41(6):1113-1120.(in Chinese).
[4]杨志斌,周亚龙,孙忠军,等.祁连山木里地区天然气水合物地球化学勘查[J].物探与化探, 2013,37(6):988-992.YANG Z B, ZHOU Y L, SUN Z J, et al. Geochemical exploration of natural gas hydrate in Muli permafrost area in the Qilian mountain[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2013,37(6):988-992.(in Chinese).
[5]方慧,孙忠军,徐明才,等.冻土区天然气水合物勘查技术研究主要进展与成果[J].物探与化探,2017, 41(6):991-997.FANG H, SUN Z J, XU M C, et al. Main achievements of gas hydrate exploration technology in permafrost regions of China[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2017, 41(6):991-997.(in Chinese).
[6]ADANKON M M, CHERIET M. Support Vector Machine[J]. Computer Science, 2002, 1(4):1-28.
[7]董莉,江沸菠,戴前伟,等.基于支持向量机回归的电阻率成像反演[J].物探与化探, 2017,41(3):505-512.DONG L, JIANG F B, DAI Q W, et al. Electrical resistivity imaging inversion based on support vector regression[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2017, 41(3):505-512.(in Chinese).
[8]卢振权,李永红,王伟超,等.青海木里三露天冻土天然气水合物成藏模式研究[J].现代地质,2015(5):1014-1023.LU Z Q, LI Y H, WANG W C, et al. Study on the accumulation pattern for permafrost-associated gas hydrate in Sanlutian of Muli, Qinghai[J]. Geoscience, 2015(5):1014-1023.(in Chinese).
[9]Makogon Y F, Omelchenko R Y. Commercial gas production from Messoyakha deposit in hydrate conditions[J]. Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering, 2013, 11(3):1-6.(in Chinese).
[10]姜春香,李培,王小江,等.木里地区天然气水合物地震属性分析[J].物探与化探, 2017, 41(6):1019-1026.JIANG C X, LI P, WANG X J, et al. An analysis of seismic attribute characteristics of terrestrial gas hydrate in Muli area[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2017,41(6):1019-1026.(in Chinese).
[11]何梅兴,方慧,裴发根,等.青海木里地区冻土层、断层分布特征与天然气水合物成藏条件分析[J].物探与化探, 2017, 41(6):1133-1141.HE M X, FANG H, PEI F G, et al. Fault and frozen soil distribution characteristics of Muli natural gas hydrate area in Qinghai province[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration,2017, 41(6):1133-1141.(in Chinese).
[12]方慧,裴发根,何梅兴,等.音频大地电磁测深法探测冻土区天然气水合物有效性实验[J].物探与化探. 2017, 41(6):1068-1074.FANG H, PEI F G, HE M X, et al. Effectiveness of audio magnetotelluric sounding for detecting gas hydrate in permafrost regions[J]. Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, 2017, 41(6):1068-1074.(in Chinese).
[13]唐世琪,卢振权,王伟超,等.青海木里三露天冻土区天然气水合物钻孔岩心顶空气组成及指示意义[J].现代地质. 2015(5):1201-1213.TANG S Q, LU Z Q, WANG W C, et al. The indicative significance of gas composition of headspace gases from the gas hydrate drilling holes in the Sanlutian Mine of the Muli Mining area,Qinghai[J]. Geoscience, 2015(5):1201-1213.(in Chinese).
[14]卢振权,唐世琪,王伟超,等.青海木里三露天冻土天然气水合物气源性质研究[J].现代地质,2015(5):995-1001.LU Z Q, TANG S Q, WANG W C, et al. Study on the nature of gas source for permafrost-associated gas hydrate in Sanlutian of Muli, Qinghai[J]. Geoscience, 2015(5):995-1001.(in Chinese).
[15]余小东,武莹,何腊梅.反距离加权网格化插值算法的改进及比较[J].工程地球物理学报. 2013,10(6):900-904.YUXD,WUY,HELM.Improvementandcomparisonofinversedistanceweightedgrid interpolation algorithm[J]. Chinese Journal of Engineering Geophysics, 2013, 10(6):900-904.(in Chinese).