市场可达性、人口流动与空间分化
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摘要
本文以中国高铁作为拟自然实验,研究了通勤成本减少对人口流动及空间分化的影响。研究显示,城市开通高铁会增加2.18%的常住人口,促进沿线城市的人口集聚;另一方面,高铁也促进了人口自西向东、自北向南的流动。进一步分析发现,在经济相对发达的东部地区,高铁增加了中小城市的人口流入,而对区域中心城市的作用削弱。但是在经济相对欠发达的中部地区,高铁却减缓了中小城市的集聚,进一步强化了大城市的作用。本文认为,可达性及市场联系程度的改变引起了空间分化,并从市场可达性角度对这些结果进行了验证。
This paper takes China 's High-Speed Railways( CRH) as a quasi-natural experiment,and analyzes the effect of commuting cost reduction on migration and spatial differentiation.Our results show CRH connection increases city-wide population growth for 2.18%which means agglomeration in connected cities and leads to migration from west China to east China and from north China to south China. From further study,we find that CRH connection increases inflow of population for small cities in developed east region and reduces the role of regional central cities. However, CRH connection reduces development for small cities in underdeveloped middle region and strengthens the role of large cities. We hold that those changes in cities' accessibility and extent of market connection lead to spatial differentiation,and we test above results from the perspective of market access.
This paper takes China 's High-Speed Railways( CRH) as a quasi-natural experiment,and analyzes the effect of commuting cost reduction on migration and spatial differentiation.Our results show CRH connection increases city-wide population growth for 2.18%which means agglomeration in connected cities and leads to migration from west China to east China and from north China to south China. From further study,we find that CRH connection increases inflow of population for small cities in developed east region and reduces the role of regional central cities. However, CRH connection reduces development for small cities in underdeveloped middle region and strengthens the role of large cities. We hold that those changes in cities' accessibility and extent of market connection lead to spatial differentiation,and we test above results from the perspective of market access.
引文
1.蔡昉、王德文,2003:《作为市场化的人口流动---第五次人口普查数据分析》,《中国人口科学》第5期。
2.陆铭,2016:《大国大城:当代中国的统一、发展与平衡》,上海人民出版社。
3.马伟、王亚华、刘生龙,2012:《交通基础设施与中国人口迁移:基于引力模型分析》,《中国软科学》第3期。
4.王雨飞、倪鹏飞,2016:《高速铁路影响下的经济增长溢出与区域空间优化》,《中国工业经济》第2期。
5.杨维凤,2010:《京沪高速铁路对我国区域空间结构的影响分析》,《北京社会科学》第6期。
6.于涛方,2012:《中国城市人口流动增长的空间类型及影响因素》,《中国人口科学》第4期。
7.张克中、陶东杰,2016:《交通基础设施的经济分布效应---来自高铁开通的证据》,《经济学动态》第6期。
8.张学良,2012:《中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗---兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应》,《中国社会科学》第3期。
9.Alder,S.2015.“Chinese Roads in India:The Effect of Transport Infrastructure on Economic Development.”Meeting Papers No.1447,Society for Economic Dynamics.
10.Banerjee,A.,E.Duflo,and N.Qian.2012.“On the Road:Access to Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China.”NBER Working Paper 17897.
11.Bartelme,D.2015.“Trade Costs and Economic Geography:Evidence from the US.”Working Paper,Univ.Calif.,Berkeley.
12.Baum-Snow,N.2007.“Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?”The Quarterly Journal of Economics 122(2):775-805.
13.Baum-Snow,N.2010.“Changes in Transportation Infrastructure and Commuting Patterns in US Metropolitan Areas,1960-2000.”The American Economic Review 100(2):378-382.
14.Baum-Snow,N.,L.Brandt,J.V.Henderson,M.A.Turner,and Q.Zhang.2017.“Roads,Railroads and Decentralization of Chinese Cities.”The Review of Economics and Statistics 99(3):435-448.
15.Burgess,R.,and D.Donaldson.2010.“Can Openness Mitigate the Effects of Weather Shocks?Evidence from India’s Famine Era.”The American Economic Review 100(2):449-453.
16.Chandra,A.,and E.Thompson.2000.“Does Public Infrastructure Affect Economic Activity?Evidence from the Rural Interstate Highway System.”Regional Science and Urban Economics 30(4):457-490.
17.Donaldson,D.,and R.Hornbeck.2016.“Railroads and American Economic Growth:A‘Market Access’Approach.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(2):799-858.
18.Duranton,G.,P.M.Morrow,and M.A.Turner.2014.“Roads and Trade:Evidence from the US.”The Review of Economic Studies 81(2):681-724.
19.Faber,B.2014.“Trade Integration,Market Size,and Industrialization:Evidence from China’s National Trunk Highway System.”The Review of Economic Studies 81(3):1046-1070.
20.Garcia-López,M.A.,C.Hémet,and E.Viladecans-Marsal.2017.“How Does Transportation Shape Intrametropolitan Growth?An Answer from the Regional Express Rail.”Journal of Regional Science 57(5):758-780.
21.Li,P.,Y.Lu,and J.Wang.2016.“Does Flattening Government Improve Economic Performance?Evidence from China.”Journal of Development Economics 123(7):18-37.
22.Lin,Y.2017.“Travel Costs and Urban Specialization Patterns:Evidence from China’s High Speed Railway System.”Journal of Urban Economics 98(3):98-123.
23.Michaels,G.2008.“The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill:Evidence from the Interstate Highway System.”The Review of Economics and Statistics 90(4):683-701.
24.Qin,Y.2017.“‘No County Left Behind?’The Distributional Impact of High-speed Rail Upgrades in China.”Journal of Economic Geography 17(3):489-520.
25.Roberts,M.,U.Deichmann,B.Fingleton,and T.Shi.2012.“Evaluating China’s Road to Prosperity:A New Economic Geography Approach.”Regional Science and Urban Economics 42(4):580-594.
26.Shiferaw,A.,M.S9derbom,E.Siba,and G.Alemu.2015.“Road Infrastructure and Enterprise Dynamics in Ethiopia.”The Journal of Development Studies 51(11):1541-1558.
27.Xu,H.,and K.Nakajima.2017.“Highways and Industrial Development in the Peripheral Regions of China.”Papers in Regional Science 96(2):325-356.
28.Zheng,S.,and M.E.Kahn.2013.“China’s Bullet Trains Facilitate Market Integration and Mitigate the Cost of Megacity Growth.”Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110(14):E1248-E1253.
(1)作者通过地图模拟计算获得。
(2)根据规划文件,高铁线路直连各站点城市,以此生成中国高铁线路数字地图。
(1)依据《中国统计年鉴》,东部10省份包括北京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南;中部6省份包括山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南;西部12省份包括内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆;东北3省份包括辽宁、吉林、黑龙江。
(2)实验组指截至2014年的所有沿线城市。
(1)本文研究中的城市为县域级别的城市,包括县、市辖区、县级市,聚类到城市水平即县市水平,下同。
(1)根据我国义务教育制度,目前初中以后教育需要回原籍地,因此我们没有用在校中学生数量代替常住人口进行估计。
(1)由于航空运输份额较小,且与地面交通差别较大,并且数据不易获得,本文没有将其纳入其中;该数据由作者根据各年鉴整理获得。
(2)由于地图获取的限制,我们这里用1988年的公路、河流及2013年的铁路来计算。
(3)指距离成本。
(4)最小生成树要求通过直线将各节点联通,但是不能形成回路,本质上即路径总长度最小的联通线路。由于研究中最小生成树构建的步骤主要在Arcgis中完成,涉及的工作量较大且程序比较复杂,这里不详细说明。
(1)由于篇幅限制,我们没有给出对中部地区城市异质性的分析。事实上,实证结果与前面的分析一致。
2.陆铭,2016:《大国大城:当代中国的统一、发展与平衡》,上海人民出版社。
3.马伟、王亚华、刘生龙,2012:《交通基础设施与中国人口迁移:基于引力模型分析》,《中国软科学》第3期。
4.王雨飞、倪鹏飞,2016:《高速铁路影响下的经济增长溢出与区域空间优化》,《中国工业经济》第2期。
5.杨维凤,2010:《京沪高速铁路对我国区域空间结构的影响分析》,《北京社会科学》第6期。
6.于涛方,2012:《中国城市人口流动增长的空间类型及影响因素》,《中国人口科学》第4期。
7.张克中、陶东杰,2016:《交通基础设施的经济分布效应---来自高铁开通的证据》,《经济学动态》第6期。
8.张学良,2012:《中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗---兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应》,《中国社会科学》第3期。
9.Alder,S.2015.“Chinese Roads in India:The Effect of Transport Infrastructure on Economic Development.”Meeting Papers No.1447,Society for Economic Dynamics.
10.Banerjee,A.,E.Duflo,and N.Qian.2012.“On the Road:Access to Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China.”NBER Working Paper 17897.
11.Bartelme,D.2015.“Trade Costs and Economic Geography:Evidence from the US.”Working Paper,Univ.Calif.,Berkeley.
12.Baum-Snow,N.2007.“Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?”The Quarterly Journal of Economics 122(2):775-805.
13.Baum-Snow,N.2010.“Changes in Transportation Infrastructure and Commuting Patterns in US Metropolitan Areas,1960-2000.”The American Economic Review 100(2):378-382.
14.Baum-Snow,N.,L.Brandt,J.V.Henderson,M.A.Turner,and Q.Zhang.2017.“Roads,Railroads and Decentralization of Chinese Cities.”The Review of Economics and Statistics 99(3):435-448.
15.Burgess,R.,and D.Donaldson.2010.“Can Openness Mitigate the Effects of Weather Shocks?Evidence from India’s Famine Era.”The American Economic Review 100(2):449-453.
16.Chandra,A.,and E.Thompson.2000.“Does Public Infrastructure Affect Economic Activity?Evidence from the Rural Interstate Highway System.”Regional Science and Urban Economics 30(4):457-490.
17.Donaldson,D.,and R.Hornbeck.2016.“Railroads and American Economic Growth:A‘Market Access’Approach.”The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(2):799-858.
18.Duranton,G.,P.M.Morrow,and M.A.Turner.2014.“Roads and Trade:Evidence from the US.”The Review of Economic Studies 81(2):681-724.
19.Faber,B.2014.“Trade Integration,Market Size,and Industrialization:Evidence from China’s National Trunk Highway System.”The Review of Economic Studies 81(3):1046-1070.
20.Garcia-López,M.A.,C.Hémet,and E.Viladecans-Marsal.2017.“How Does Transportation Shape Intrametropolitan Growth?An Answer from the Regional Express Rail.”Journal of Regional Science 57(5):758-780.
21.Li,P.,Y.Lu,and J.Wang.2016.“Does Flattening Government Improve Economic Performance?Evidence from China.”Journal of Development Economics 123(7):18-37.
22.Lin,Y.2017.“Travel Costs and Urban Specialization Patterns:Evidence from China’s High Speed Railway System.”Journal of Urban Economics 98(3):98-123.
23.Michaels,G.2008.“The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill:Evidence from the Interstate Highway System.”The Review of Economics and Statistics 90(4):683-701.
24.Qin,Y.2017.“‘No County Left Behind?’The Distributional Impact of High-speed Rail Upgrades in China.”Journal of Economic Geography 17(3):489-520.
25.Roberts,M.,U.Deichmann,B.Fingleton,and T.Shi.2012.“Evaluating China’s Road to Prosperity:A New Economic Geography Approach.”Regional Science and Urban Economics 42(4):580-594.
26.Shiferaw,A.,M.S9derbom,E.Siba,and G.Alemu.2015.“Road Infrastructure and Enterprise Dynamics in Ethiopia.”The Journal of Development Studies 51(11):1541-1558.
27.Xu,H.,and K.Nakajima.2017.“Highways and Industrial Development in the Peripheral Regions of China.”Papers in Regional Science 96(2):325-356.
28.Zheng,S.,and M.E.Kahn.2013.“China’s Bullet Trains Facilitate Market Integration and Mitigate the Cost of Megacity Growth.”Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110(14):E1248-E1253.
(1)作者通过地图模拟计算获得。
(2)根据规划文件,高铁线路直连各站点城市,以此生成中国高铁线路数字地图。
(1)依据《中国统计年鉴》,东部10省份包括北京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南;中部6省份包括山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南;西部12省份包括内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆;东北3省份包括辽宁、吉林、黑龙江。
(2)实验组指截至2014年的所有沿线城市。
(1)本文研究中的城市为县域级别的城市,包括县、市辖区、县级市,聚类到城市水平即县市水平,下同。
(1)根据我国义务教育制度,目前初中以后教育需要回原籍地,因此我们没有用在校中学生数量代替常住人口进行估计。
(1)由于航空运输份额较小,且与地面交通差别较大,并且数据不易获得,本文没有将其纳入其中;该数据由作者根据各年鉴整理获得。
(2)由于地图获取的限制,我们这里用1988年的公路、河流及2013年的铁路来计算。
(3)指距离成本。
(4)最小生成树要求通过直线将各节点联通,但是不能形成回路,本质上即路径总长度最小的联通线路。由于研究中最小生成树构建的步骤主要在Arcgis中完成,涉及的工作量较大且程序比较复杂,这里不详细说明。
(1)由于篇幅限制,我们没有给出对中部地区城市异质性的分析。事实上,实证结果与前面的分析一致。