地震前长周期事件的研究——历史与现状
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摘要
自 2 0世纪 60年代以来 ,已经积累了许多地震前长周期事件的观测资料。这些长周期事件可以被很多不同的观测系统记录到 ,如跨断层形变、超低频电磁异常、次声波异常、井下低频导波、井水水位等。理论上对地震前长周期事件已给出了许多论证 ,例如 ,震前的断层蠕动、静地震与慢地震、断层的断裂预扩展和地震成核等。解决震前长周期事件的地面可测性 ,对突破“震前平静”带来的短临预测的困惑会起到举足轻重的作用。目前的主要问题是缺乏网络化的系统观测和对物理机制的研究
Since 1960's,lots of observed data on long-period events before earthquakes have been accumulated.These long-period events can be recorded by various kinds of observation systems,such as dislocation across faults,anomalies of extra-low-frequency electromagnetic waves and infrasonic waves,low-frequency guided waves under wells,well water level and so on.The long-period events before earthquakes have been theoretically demonstrated by fault creep before earthquakes,silent and slow earthquakes,fracture pre-propagation of faults and fracture nucleation as well.The resolution of surface measurement of long-period events before earthquakes would play a decisive role in overcoming the difficulty of short-term and imminent earthquake predictions brought by "pre-earthquake quiet".At present,the primary problem is lack of network of observation system and research on physical mechanism.
Since 1960's,lots of observed data on long-period events before earthquakes have been accumulated.These long-period events can be recorded by various kinds of observation systems,such as dislocation across faults,anomalies of extra-low-frequency electromagnetic waves and infrasonic waves,low-frequency guided waves under wells,well water level and so on.The long-period events before earthquakes have been theoretically demonstrated by fault creep before earthquakes,silent and slow earthquakes,fracture pre-propagation of faults and fracture nucleation as well.The resolution of surface measurement of long-period events before earthquakes would play a decisive role in overcoming the difficulty of short-term and imminent earthquake predictions brought by "pre-earthquake quiet".At present,the primary problem is lack of network of observation system and research on physical mechanism.
引文
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[21] 吴忠良.地震学中的“暗物质”:“静地震”与地震预测研究的未来.国际地震动态,2001(9):1-4
[22] 冯德益,潘琴龙,郑斯华,等.长周期形变波及其所反映的短期和临震地震前兆.地震学报,1984,6(1):41-56
[23] ZhurkovS N.Kinetic concept of the strength of solids.IntJFractureMech,1965,1:311-323
[24] ZhurkovSN,KuksenkoV S,PetrovV A.Principles of theKenecapproach of fracture prediction.TheorApplFracMech,1984,1:271-274
[25] AkiK,RichardsP G.Quantitative seismology,theory and methods,FreemanW H andCompany//定量地震学.邹其嘉,李钦祖译.北京:地震出版社,2001:335
[26] RiceJR,RuinaA L.Stability of steady frictional slipping.JApplMech,1980(50):343-349
[27] RuinaA L.Friction laws and instabilities:a quasistatic analysis of some dry friction behavior.PhD Thesis,1980
[28] DieterichJH.Time- dependent friction and the mechanics of stick- slip.PureApplGeophys,1978,116:790-806
[29] DieterichJH.Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength.Tectonophysics,1992,211:851-855
[30] OhnakaM.Earthquake source nucleation:a physical model for short- term precursors.Tectonophysics,1992,211:149-178
[31] ScherbaumF.Zero- phaseFIR filters:blessing or curse?EOS,1997,78(33):343-344//零相位有限脉冲响应滤波器:是耶,非耶?吴忠良译.世界地震译丛,1998(177):87-89
[32] KuoJK,ZhengJH,SongSH,etal.Determination of earthquake epicentroids by invertion of gravity datainBTTZ region,China.Tectonophysics,1999,312:267-281
[33] 杜乐天,强祖基.地球排气作用与自然灾害//流体地球科学进展编委会编著.流体地球科学进展.北京:地震出版社,1999:36-46
[34] 白恩胜.隐爆地震浅析//流体地球科学进展编委会编著.流体地球科学进展.北京:地震出版社,1999:103-108
[2] NasonR D.Fault creep and earthquakes on theSanAndreas fault//KovachR L andNurA(Editors),Pro-cessing of theConference onTectonicProblems on theSanAndreasFaultSystem.StanfordUnivPubl,GeolSci,1973(13):275-285
[3] 陈运泰,黄立人,林邦慧,等.用大地测量资料反演的1976年唐山地震的位错模式.地球物理学报,1979,22(3):201-217
[4] SobolevG A.Application of electric to the tentative short- term forecast ofKamchatka earthquakes.PAGEOPH,1975(113):229-235
[5] VarotosP,AlexopoulosK.Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth precedingearthquakes(I,II).Tectonophysics,1984,110:73-98
[6] 郝建国,潘怀文,李德瑞,等.震前极低频(ELF)电磁异常是地震短临预报的可靠标志之一//地震预报研究论文集.北京:地震出版社,1992:152-156
[7] 郝建国,张云福.地震静电预测学.北京:石油大学出版社,2001:238
[8] 李均之,夏雅琴,陈维升.近几年日本强地震的临震前兆信息.北京工业大学学报,1995,21(4):1-12
[9] 李均之,夏雅琴,陈维升.临震前兆方法的研究//中国天灾综合预测研究:1978年全国重点大自然灾害综合家论坛.北京:地震出版社,1999:75-79
[10] 李志雄,高荣胜.1997年新疆伽师几次中强地震的短临预报过程.地震,1997,17(3):327-330
[11] 苏日方,田维.2001年2～4月强地震的前兆次声波测量研究.地球物理学进展,2001,16(4):61-70
[12] 苏日方,田维.2001年7～9月强地震的前兆次声波测量研究.地球物理学进展,2002,25(1):11-19
[13] 苏日方,苏骁.强地震临震预报的前兆次声波测量研究.石油大学学报,2000,24(6):106-112
[14] FangSu,WeiTian.Measure and study of precursory infrasonic waves of strong earthquakes inMay2000.Journal ofLowFrequencyNoise,Vibration andActiveControl,2001,20(4)
[15] SuFang,TianWei.The measure and study of precursory infrasonic waves of strong earthquakes fromOc-tober toDecember2000.PetroleumScience,2001,4(3):8-18
[16] 谢金来,谢照华.1993年7月12日日本北海道地震次声波.声学学报,1996,21(1):55-61
[17] 李世愚,刘万琴,郑治真,等.房山矿震震前井下长周期事件记录的分析:地震破裂“成核”过程的一种迹象//中国地震学会编.中国地震学会第七次学术大会论文摘要集.北京:地震出版社,1998:120
[18] 潘琴龙,冯德益.孕震断裂的预扩展(亚稳态扩展)及震前长周期波的探讨.地球物理学报,1983,26(增刊):693-700
[19] 尹祥础,郑天愉.地震孕育过程的流变模式.中国科学(B辑),1982(10):922-930
[20] SacksI S,SuyehiroS,L indeA T,et al.Slow earthquakes and stress redistribution.Nature,1978,275:599-602
[21] 吴忠良.地震学中的“暗物质”:“静地震”与地震预测研究的未来.国际地震动态,2001(9):1-4
[22] 冯德益,潘琴龙,郑斯华,等.长周期形变波及其所反映的短期和临震地震前兆.地震学报,1984,6(1):41-56
[23] ZhurkovS N.Kinetic concept of the strength of solids.IntJFractureMech,1965,1:311-323
[24] ZhurkovSN,KuksenkoV S,PetrovV A.Principles of theKenecapproach of fracture prediction.TheorApplFracMech,1984,1:271-274
[25] AkiK,RichardsP G.Quantitative seismology,theory and methods,FreemanW H andCompany//定量地震学.邹其嘉,李钦祖译.北京:地震出版社,2001:335
[26] RiceJR,RuinaA L.Stability of steady frictional slipping.JApplMech,1980(50):343-349
[27] RuinaA L.Friction laws and instabilities:a quasistatic analysis of some dry friction behavior.PhD Thesis,1980
[28] DieterichJH.Time- dependent friction and the mechanics of stick- slip.PureApplGeophys,1978,116:790-806
[29] DieterichJH.Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength.Tectonophysics,1992,211:851-855
[30] OhnakaM.Earthquake source nucleation:a physical model for short- term precursors.Tectonophysics,1992,211:149-178
[31] ScherbaumF.Zero- phaseFIR filters:blessing or curse?EOS,1997,78(33):343-344//零相位有限脉冲响应滤波器:是耶,非耶?吴忠良译.世界地震译丛,1998(177):87-89
[32] KuoJK,ZhengJH,SongSH,etal.Determination of earthquake epicentroids by invertion of gravity datainBTTZ region,China.Tectonophysics,1999,312:267-281
[33] 杜乐天,强祖基.地球排气作用与自然灾害//流体地球科学进展编委会编著.流体地球科学进展.北京:地震出版社,1999:36-46
[34] 白恩胜.隐爆地震浅析//流体地球科学进展编委会编著.流体地球科学进展.北京:地震出版社,1999:103-108
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