多因子分析在辽宁地区地震预测中的应用
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摘要
本文根据多因子分析的主成分分析法,选择与地震强度有关的3级以上地震频次N(ML≥3.0)、b值、η值、Mf值、C值和Ac值等6个参量进行主成分分析,实现对上述参量的有效约简。这6个参量之间有一定的相关性,各参量在不同时段的变化各有所异,但是采用主成分分析法可以得到反应地震强度特征的综合指标W,发现该指标W,在辽宁海城7.3级、岫岩5.4级地震前出现明显的异常变化,震后恢复。这表明综合指标W可以较好的反映地震活动的异常特征。
According to the multi-factor analysis,the primary component is analyzed by 6 seismicity parameters of earthquake frequency N(ML≥3.0),b-value,η-value,A(b)-value,Mf-value,Acvalue,which has relation with the earthquake strenth.It reduced the above-metioned parameters effectively.There were some relativities among 6 parameters.And each of them was different in distinct stages.But the earthquake intensity synthetic index W can be gained by the primary component analysis.W value showed obvious anomalies before 2 earthquakes occurred in the Liaoning area and returned to normal after that.It showed that the synthetic index W can reflect the anomalous characteristics of the seismicity.
According to the multi-factor analysis,the primary component is analyzed by 6 seismicity parameters of earthquake frequency N(ML≥3.0),b-value,η-value,A(b)-value,Mf-value,Acvalue,which has relation with the earthquake strenth.It reduced the above-metioned parameters effectively.There were some relativities among 6 parameters.And each of them was different in distinct stages.But the earthquake intensity synthetic index W can be gained by the primary component analysis.W value showed obvious anomalies before 2 earthquakes occurred in the Liaoning area and returned to normal after that.It showed that the synthetic index W can reflect the anomalous characteristics of the seismicity.
引文
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[8]李永振.利用主成分分析法研究东北地震活动异常[J].地震研究,2010,33(2),P163-169.
[2]李永振,等.主成分分析法在林甸MS5.1级地震回顾性预测中的应用[J].东北地震研究,2008,24(2),P29～34.
[3]李永振,等.利用因子分析法研究前郭地震前地震活动异常[J].东北地震研究,2009,25(2),P23—28.
[4]李永振.主成分分析法在汶川地震预测中的应用[J].四川地震,2009,(2):P21-25.
[5]陆远忠,阎利军,郭若眉.用于中短期地震预报的一些地震活动性参量相关性讨论[J].地震,1999,19(1),P11-18.
[6]韩渭宾.地震活动性参数分类及其相关性初步研究[J].四川地震,2003,(3):P1～5.
[7]李永振.应用RTL算法对岫岩Ms5.4地震的回顾性预测[J].东北地震研究,2008,24(1),P39～43.
[8]李永振.利用主成分分析法研究东北地震活动异常[J].地震研究,2010,33(2),P163-169.
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