圣安德烈斯断层深部地震复发间隔的周期性、不规则性和倍增特征
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摘要
地震的复发历史可能会为未来地震发生的时间提供线索,但大地震之间的时间间隔太长,因而掩盖了所有的复发变化规律。相比之下,小地震频繁发生,而其复发间隔在相对小的时间尺度内也是可以计量的。本研究对一个历时8.5年、包含900多次低频事件的地震序列进行了研究,这些低频地震在加州帕克菲尔德(Parkfield)附近的圣安德烈斯断层下产生了震动。这些地震事件在时间上表现出密集的复发间隔,一般在3～6天之间,但有时这一模式却会突然发生变化。虽然大地震和低频地震的发生环境不同,但是该项研究表明大地震序列可能具有类似的复杂性。
引文
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[28]Shimazaki K and Nakata T.Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett.,1980,7:279-282
[29]Rogers G and Dragert H.Episodic tremor and slip on the Cascadia subduction zone:The chatter of silent slip.Science,2003,300:1942-1943
[2]Scharer K M,Biasi G P,Weldon Ray J,et al.Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault.Geology,2010,38(6):555-558
[3]Ellsworth W L,Matthews M V,Nadeau R M,et al.A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report,99-522,1999
[4]Weldon R,Scharer K,Fumal T,et al.Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle:What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work.GSA Today,2004,14:4-10
[5]Gu Y and Wong T-F.In:Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena,Geophysical Monograph,Vol.83,W.I.Newman et al.,eds.(American Geophysical Union,Washington DC),1994,15-35
[6]Julian B R.Period doubling and other nonlinear phenomena in volcanic earthquakes and tremor.J.Vol-canol.Geotherm.Res,2000,101:19-26
[7]Burridge R and Knopoff L.Model and theoretical seismology.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1967,57:341-371
[8]Ruina A L.Slip instability and state variable friction laws.J.Geophys.Res.,1983,88:10359-10370
[9]Huang J and Turcotte D L.Are earthquakes an example of deterministic chaos?Geophys.Res.Lett.,1990,17:223-226
[10]Rice J R.Spatio-temporal complexity of slip on a fault.J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9885-9907
[11]Ma S and He C.Period doubling as a result of slip complexities in sliding surfaces with strength hetero-geneity.Tectonophysics,2001,337:135-145
[12]Becker T W.Deterministic chaos in two state-variable friction sliders and the effect of elastic interac-tions.In:Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes.Geophys.Monogr.,2001,120:5-26
[13]Erickson B,Birnir B and Lavallée D.A model for aperiodicity in earthquakes.Nonlinear Processes Geo-phys.,2008,15:1-12
[14]Weeks J D and Tullis T E.Frictional sliding of dolomite:A variation in constitutive behavior.J.Geo-phys.Res.,1985,90:7821-7826
[15]Ito K.Periodicity and chaos in great earthquake occurrence.J.Geophys.Res.,1980,85:1399-1408
[16]Huang J and Turcotte D L.Evidence for chaotic fault interaction in the seismicity of the San Andreas fault and Nankai trough.Nature,1990,348:234-236
[17]Bakun W H,Aagaard B,Dost B,et al.Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the2004Parkfield earthquake.Nature,2005,437:969-974
[18]Nadeau R M and Dolenc D.Nonvolcanic tremors deep beneath the San Andreas fault.Science,2005,307:389
[19]Shelly D R,Ellsworth W L,Ryberg T,et al.Precise location of San Andreas fault tremors near Cholame,California using seismometer clusters:Slip on the deep extension of the fault?Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36:L01303
[20]Thomas A,Nadeau R M and Bürgmann R.Tremor-tide correlations and near-lithostatic pore pressure on the deep San Andreas fault.Nature,2009,462:1048-1051
[21]Shelly D R,Beroza G C and Ide S.Non-volcanic tremor and low-frequency earthquake swarms.Nature,2007,446:305-307
[22]Shelly D R.Migrating tremors illuminate complex deformation beneath the seismogenic San Andreas fault.Nature,2010,463:648-652
[23]Shelly D R.Possible deep fault slip preceding the2004Parkfield earthquake,inferred from detailed ob-servations of tectonic tremor.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36,L17318
[24]Murray J and Langbein J.Slip on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield,California,over two earthquake cy-cles,and the implications for seismic hazard.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2006,96:S283-S303
[25]Waldhauser F and Schaff D P.Large-scale relocation of two decades of Northern California seismicity u-sing cross-correlation and double-difference methods.J.Geophys.Res.,2008,113:B08311
[26]Beeler N M,Lockner D L and Hickman S H.A simple stick-slip and creep slip model for repeating earthquakes and its implication for microearthquakes at Parkfield.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2001,91:1797-1804
[27]Chen T and Lapusta N.Scaling of small repeating earthquakes explained by interaction of seismic and aseismic slip in a rate and state fault model.J.Geophys.Res.,2009,114:B01311
[28]Shimazaki K and Nakata T.Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett.,1980,7:279-282
[29]Rogers G and Dragert H.Episodic tremor and slip on the Cascadia subduction zone:The chatter of silent slip.Science,2003,300:1942-1943
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