云南地区断层形变速率异常及强震预测指标
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摘要
运用云南地区1997～2002年的跨断层短水准短基线资料,研究了姚安Ms6 5、永胜Ms6 0级地震的形变前兆异常特点。以断层运动速率与基准值之比定义异常参数R值,定量分析了云南地区1998～2002年的形变异常及其与区域强震的关系,提出强震预测指标。结果表明,R值出现异常后的3～20个月内,区域内都有6级以上强震发生。
We study the change patterns during the period of Ms65 Yaoan and Ms60 Yongsheng earthquakes by using the cross-faults deformation precursor data from 1997 to 2002 year in Yunnan region.And we also analyze the quantity relation between the precursor anomalies from 1998 to 2002 year and strong earthquakes in this region by taking the ratio of deformation change as the anomaly parameters R-value.We bring up with predictive indexes for strong earthquakes.Our results show that an Ms60 earthquake or over occurs in 3 to 20 months after the anomaly parameter R-value appears.In 1999 after a group of anomalies lasting for 8 months appeared in Xiaguan area,the short-term anomalies index we take as a distingushing mark was presented in the observation data got from Jianchuan and Shiping seismic stations,and then an Ms65 earthquake occurred(in Jan.2000).Also after two groups of anomalies were presented one after another got from Yongsheng and Lijiang seismic stations about 17 months,short-term anomalies appeared in Jianchuan and Shiping seismic stations once again,and then an Ms60 Yongsheng Earthquake occurred(in Oct.2001).
We study the change patterns during the period of Ms65 Yaoan and Ms60 Yongsheng earthquakes by using the cross-faults deformation precursor data from 1997 to 2002 year in Yunnan region.And we also analyze the quantity relation between the precursor anomalies from 1998 to 2002 year and strong earthquakes in this region by taking the ratio of deformation change as the anomaly parameters R-value.We bring up with predictive indexes for strong earthquakes.Our results show that an Ms60 earthquake or over occurs in 3 to 20 months after the anomaly parameter R-value appears.In 1999 after a group of anomalies lasting for 8 months appeared in Xiaguan area,the short-term anomalies index we take as a distingushing mark was presented in the observation data got from Jianchuan and Shiping seismic stations,and then an Ms65 earthquake occurred(in Jan.2000).Also after two groups of anomalies were presented one after another got from Yongsheng and Lijiang seismic stations about 17 months,short-term anomalies appeared in Jianchuan and Shiping seismic stations once again,and then an Ms60 Yongsheng Earthquake occurred(in Oct.2001).
引文
① 郭良迁 南北地震构造带的断层形变 中国地震局第一形变中心 , 2 0 0 2年度地震趋势报告
[1] 江在森,等 中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M] 北京:地震出版社,2001
[2] 力武常次 冯锐等译 地震预报[M] 北京:地震出版社,1978
[3] 国家地震局《1976年唐山地震》编辑组 1976年唐山地震[M] 北京:地震出版社,1982,149-157
[4] A R Ritsema,Thegenerationofintra-plateearthquakes,inacollectionofpapersofinternationalsymposiumoncontinentalseismicityandearthquakeprediction,editedbytheOrganizingCommitteeofISCSEP,694～707,SeismologicalPress,Beijing,China,1984
[5] 黄雍,等 2001年云南施甸中强震群研究[M] 云南科技出版社,2002,240-242
[1] 江在森,等 中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M] 北京:地震出版社,2001
[2] 力武常次 冯锐等译 地震预报[M] 北京:地震出版社,1978
[3] 国家地震局《1976年唐山地震》编辑组 1976年唐山地震[M] 北京:地震出版社,1982,149-157
[4] A R Ritsema,Thegenerationofintra-plateearthquakes,inacollectionofpapersofinternationalsymposiumoncontinentalseismicityandearthquakeprediction,editedbytheOrganizingCommitteeofISCSEP,694～707,SeismologicalPress,Beijing,China,1984
[5] 黄雍,等 2001年云南施甸中强震群研究[M] 云南科技出版社,2002,240-242
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