兰州邻区活断层潜在地震最大震级及其危险性评估
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摘要
兰州附近的庄浪河断裂和白银白杨树沟断裂是对兰州市地震安全有一定影响的晚第四纪活动断裂,但沿断裂发生的中强破坏性地震较为复杂甚至不明确。如何评价西部地区此类断裂的最大潜在地震震级及其危险性是地震中长期预测和地震区划研究中较为重要的问题之一。本文借鉴闻学泽等(2007)对中国大陆东部中-弱活断层潜在地震最大震级评估的思路,建立了兰州地区最大地震震级Mmax与断层小区震级-频度关系参数at/b值之间的经验公式;并采用经验公式外推得到庄浪河断裂和白杨树沟断裂的震级上限Mu分别为MS6.9、6.3,进而评估了这两条断裂的地震平均复发间隔和发震概率。
The Zhuanglang river and the Baiyin Baiyangshu river faults are the late Quaternary faults near Lanzhou city,which affect the safety of the city.But the cause of a medium-strong earthquake along the fault is rather complicated and even uncertain.It is important for us how to assess magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes and the risks on the faults.The authors make reference to the method that Wen Xueze,et al.(2007)developed to assess magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes in sub-areas of the moderately and weakly active faults in eastern Chinese mainland,and formed the empirical relationship between the maximum magnitudes M_max and the a_t/b values of the sub-areas' frequency-magnitude relationships in the Lanzhou area.By using the empirical relationship,the authors estimated that the upper-limits M_u of the Zhuanglang river and the Baiyin Baiyangshu river active faults near Lanzhou city are M_S6.9,6.3,respectively.Also they assessed the average interval recurrence time and the probabilities of destructive earthquakes on the faults.
The Zhuanglang river and the Baiyin Baiyangshu river faults are the late Quaternary faults near Lanzhou city,which affect the safety of the city.But the cause of a medium-strong earthquake along the fault is rather complicated and even uncertain.It is important for us how to assess magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes and the risks on the faults.The authors make reference to the method that Wen Xueze,et al.(2007)developed to assess magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes in sub-areas of the moderately and weakly active faults in eastern Chinese mainland,and formed the empirical relationship between the maximum magnitudes M_max and the a_t/b values of the sub-areas' frequency-magnitude relationships in the Lanzhou area.By using the empirical relationship,the authors estimated that the upper-limits M_u of the Zhuanglang river and the Baiyin Baiyangshu river active faults near Lanzhou city are M_S6.9,6.3,respectively.Also they assessed the average interval recurrence time and the probabilities of destructive earthquakes on the faults.
引文
[1]闻学泽等,2007,中强-弱隐伏活动断层的现今活动习性与地震危险性评价方法,四川省地震局、中国地震局地质研究所,中国数字地震观测网络项目“城市活断层试验探测”子项目的子专题研究报告。
国家地震局震害防御司,1990,地震工作手册,北京:地震出版社。
国家质量技术监督局,2001,中华人民共和国国家标准GB18306-2001《中国地震动参数区划图》,北京:中国标准出版社。
宋方敏、袁道阳、陈桂华等,2008,1125年兰州7级地震震中位置及地表破裂带特征,地震地质,30(1),834～844。
闻学泽、徐锡伟、龙锋等,2007,中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型,地震地质,29(2),236～253。
袁道阳、雷中生、刘百篪等,2001,兰州榆中406年菀川6级地震的初步研究,中国八级大震研究及防震减灾学术会议论文,231～235,北京:地震出版社。
袁道阳、刘百篪、张培震等,2002,兰州庄浪河断裂带的新构造变形与地震活动,地震学报,24(4),442～444。
中国地震局,2005,中国地震活动断层探测技术系统技术规程,北京:地震出版社。
Cornell,C.A.,1968,Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis,Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,58(5),1583～1606.
Gutenberg,B.and Richter,C.F.,1956,Magnitude and energy of earthquakes,Ann Geofis,9,1～15.
国家地震局震害防御司,1990,地震工作手册,北京:地震出版社。
国家质量技术监督局,2001,中华人民共和国国家标准GB18306-2001《中国地震动参数区划图》,北京:中国标准出版社。
宋方敏、袁道阳、陈桂华等,2008,1125年兰州7级地震震中位置及地表破裂带特征,地震地质,30(1),834～844。
闻学泽、徐锡伟、龙锋等,2007,中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型,地震地质,29(2),236～253。
袁道阳、雷中生、刘百篪等,2001,兰州榆中406年菀川6级地震的初步研究,中国八级大震研究及防震减灾学术会议论文,231～235,北京:地震出版社。
袁道阳、刘百篪、张培震等,2002,兰州庄浪河断裂带的新构造变形与地震活动,地震学报,24(4),442～444。
中国地震局,2005,中国地震活动断层探测技术系统技术规程,北京:地震出版社。
Cornell,C.A.,1968,Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis,Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,58(5),1583～1606.
Gutenberg,B.and Richter,C.F.,1956,Magnitude and energy of earthquakes,Ann Geofis,9,1～15.
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