金竹山土朱煤矿开采地表沉降规律与灰色预测模型研究
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摘要
针对金竹山矿业公司土朱煤矿煤层赋存条件,依据采动理论的裂缝垂直分带模型,分析地表沉降和塌陷的机理;提出在采煤活动阶段应进行地表实际位移观测,经数据处理后得到地面沉降曲线,以确保地面人类活动的安全;在采煤活动后阶段则实施灰色预测地面沉降,即通过采煤活动阶段的地表实际观测数据为历史原始数据序列,建立灰色Logistic模型;并对采煤活动后阶段的地面沉降进行预测。精度检验表明:灰色Logistic模型预测精度高,利用该模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费和实时提供预警信息,以确保开采区域内人们生命财产安全。
On the basis of the soil conditions in Tuzhu Coal Mine of Jinzhushan Mining Company,the mechanism of surface subsidence and collapse was analyzed according to the vertical zoning model of fissures in mining theory.It is proposed that,to ensure the safety of human activities on ground,the actual displacement of surface in the mining phase should be observed,and the surface subsidence curve should be obtained through processing these observing data.In the late stage of mining,the surface subsidence is predicted based on grey model,that is,with the actual observation data of the surface as the original history data sequence,the grey Logistic model is built and the surface subsidence is predicted.The test results show that the prediction precision for this grey Logistic model is high.This model can reduce the outlay of surface subsidence monitoring and provide real-time warning information,so as to ensure the security of people and properties in exploitation regions.
On the basis of the soil conditions in Tuzhu Coal Mine of Jinzhushan Mining Company,the mechanism of surface subsidence and collapse was analyzed according to the vertical zoning model of fissures in mining theory.It is proposed that,to ensure the safety of human activities on ground,the actual displacement of surface in the mining phase should be observed,and the surface subsidence curve should be obtained through processing these observing data.In the late stage of mining,the surface subsidence is predicted based on grey model,that is,with the actual observation data of the surface as the original history data sequence,the grey Logistic model is built and the surface subsidence is predicted.The test results show that the prediction precision for this grey Logistic model is high.This model can reduce the outlay of surface subsidence monitoring and provide real-time warning information,so as to ensure the security of people and properties in exploitation regions.
引文
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[2]杨伦.矿山开采沉陷对环境的损害比地震严重[J].科技导报,2001(9):53-54
[3]隋鹏程.中国矿山灾害[M].长沙:湖南人民出版社,1989:1-8
[4]同小军,张洪林.两种灰色模型的对比与分析[J].武汉工业学院学报,2003,22(4):101-104
[5]涟邵矿区采煤沉陷区综合治理项目取得重大进展[OL].http://ldrb.rednet.com.cn,2003-12-12
[6]罗文柯,施式亮,胡筱斌.基于混沌、灰色理论模型、预测煤矿生产中安全状况的对比分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(10):34-39
[7]熊和金,徐华中.灰色控制[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005:34-38
[8]齐黎明,林柏泉,支晓伟.马家沟矿煤与瓦斯动力现象机理研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(12):30-34
[9]王东飞.综采放顶煤开采技术对土地塌陷的影响研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2004:34-44
[10]邓聚龙,灰色系统基本方法[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1987:24-28
[11]王治祯,柏景方.灰色系统及模糊数学在环境保护中的应用[M].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,2007:15-18
[12]景国勋,张强,周爱桃.基于灰色系统理论的煤与瓦斯突出预测[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(8):18-21
[13]张春华,刘泽功.多变量灰色模型及其在钻孔瓦斯流量预测中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(6):50-54
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