基于蒙特卡罗方法的梯级电站系统地震危险性分析
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摘要
目前,在梯级开发的大坝场址地震安全性评价工作中,其工作步骤仍然与单个坝址的地震安全性评价工作步骤相同,并没有考虑不同坝址之间的关系。这种关系包括不同坝址地震危险性的相关性以及梯级开发的一系列大坝中任意一个大坝的破坏对整个梯级电站系统正常运行的影响。所以在梯级电站系统安全性评价中,考虑系统整体的地震危险性具有重要意义。本文以大渡河流域梯级开发的8座水电站为例,利用蒙特卡罗方法研究梯级电站系统整体的危险性。此研究可以为梯级电站系统的抗震设防和制定防灾对策提供依据。
At present,the seismic hazard assessments for the dams of the cascade development are carried on separately.This method takes no account of relationships between the dams of the cascade hydropower stations.The relationships consist of the correlativity of the dams' seismic safeties and any serious dam damage of the cascade development can influence the normal operation of whole cascade hydropower system.For this reason,in the seismic design of cascade hydropower stations,the security of the whole system of cascade hydropower stations may be reduced when seismic design parameters are obtained separately in the evaluation of seismic safety for each dam site.So,it is important to take the cascade hydropower stations as a system in the seismic hazard evaluation.Taking eight cascade hydropower stations on the Daduhe River as an example,the Monte Carlo simulation method is adopted to study seismic hazard of the cascade hydropower stations system.This study contributes to provide essential bases for seismic safety of the cascade hydropower stations system.
At present,the seismic hazard assessments for the dams of the cascade development are carried on separately.This method takes no account of relationships between the dams of the cascade hydropower stations.The relationships consist of the correlativity of the dams' seismic safeties and any serious dam damage of the cascade development can influence the normal operation of whole cascade hydropower system.For this reason,in the seismic design of cascade hydropower stations,the security of the whole system of cascade hydropower stations may be reduced when seismic design parameters are obtained separately in the evaluation of seismic safety for each dam site.So,it is important to take the cascade hydropower stations as a system in the seismic hazard evaluation.Taking eight cascade hydropower stations on the Daduhe River as an example,the Monte Carlo simulation method is adopted to study seismic hazard of the cascade hydropower stations system.This study contributes to provide essential bases for seismic safety of the cascade hydropower stations system.
引文
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中国地震局,2001,《中国地震动参数区划图》(GB183062-2001),北京:中国标准出版社。
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雷建成、高孟潭、俞言祥,2007,四川及邻区地震动衰减关系,地震学报,29(5),500～511。
高孟潭,1993,空间线形展布系统的地震危险性分析方法,地震学报,15(5),347～352。
潘华、赵凤新、高孟潭,2004,城市地震影响特征研究,地震学报,26(2),203～210。
中国地震局,2001,《中国地震动参数区划图》(GB183062-2001),北京:中国标准出版社。
中国水利水电科学研究院,2001,水工建筑物抗震设计规范,北京:中国电力出版社,7。
雷建成、高孟潭、俞言祥,2007,四川及邻区地震动衰减关系,地震学报,29(5),500～511。
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