综合多学科观测方法预测强地震
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摘要
介绍了一个成功的预测震例,以此解析了多学科的地震预测方法．列举了13次成功的临震预测及16次较好的年度地震预测．自1995年以来全球发生伤亡人数较多的大地震,震前北京工业大学地震研究所都收到了明显的临震信号,这说明多学科的观测方法是有效的,实践证明地震是可以预报的．
By introducing a successful instance of earthquake prediction,the method of earthquake forecasting with multi disciplines is illustrated.In the paper,13 successful prediction of earthquake and 16 better annual prediction of earthquake are also be listed.Moreover,since 1995,in the violent earthquake with more casual- ties of people in the world,we have received obvious signal of impending earthquake before earthquake in the Institute of Earthquake Prediction,Beijing University of Technology.Those facts show that the forecasting method with multi disciplines is effective,and practices prove that earthquake can be predicted.
By introducing a successful instance of earthquake prediction,the method of earthquake forecasting with multi disciplines is illustrated.In the paper,13 successful prediction of earthquake and 16 better annual prediction of earthquake are also be listed.Moreover,since 1995,in the violent earthquake with more casual- ties of people in the world,we have received obvious signal of impending earthquake before earthquake in the Institute of Earthquake Prediction,Beijing University of Technology.Those facts show that the forecasting method with multi disciplines is effective,and practices prove that earthquake can be predicted.
引文
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[3]白志强,李均之．利用多种观测方法对中国西部地震预报的初步实验[C]//中国地球物理学会年刊．北京:科学技术出版社,2001:225．BAI Zhi-qiang,LI Jun-zhi.Elementary experiments on prediction of earthquakes in west of China with multi-subjects and multi-methods[C]//Annual of the Chinese Geophysical Society.Beijing:Publishing House of Science and Technology,2001: 225.(in Chinese)
[4]李均之,白志强,陈维升,等．昆仑山口西M．8．1级地震前兆简介[J]．地学前缘,2003,10(4):428．LI Jun-zhi,BAI Zhi-qiang,CHEN Wei-sheng,et al.Brief introduction of precursors for M.8.1 earthquake occurred in west of mountain gap of kunlun,China[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2003,10(4):428.(in Chinese)
[5]李均之,任振球,黄相宁．新疆伽师强震群的临震预测[C]//中国减灾研究．北京:科学技术出版社,1998:409-413．LI Jun-zhi,REN Zhen-qiu,HUANG Xiang-ning.Imminent prediction of group of strong earthquakes in Jiashi,Xinjiang[C]// Study on Reducing Natural Disasters in China.Beijing:Publishing House of Science and Technology,1998:409-413.(in Chinese)
[6]LI Jun-zhi,BAI Zhi-qiang,CHEN Wei-sheng,et al.Strong earthquakes can be predicted:A muhidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2003,3:703-712.
[7]李均之,陈维升,夏雅琴,等．台湾7．6级地震的前兆信息[C]//香山科学会议133次学术讨论会议论文集．北京:科学出版社,2002:48-51．LI Jun-zhi,CHEN Wei-sheng,XIA Ya-qin,et al.The precursory information for ms 7.6 earthquake occurred in taiwan[C]// The transactions of 133rd China Xiangshan Science Conference.Beijing:Science Press,2002:48-51.(in Chinese)
[8]李均之,夏稚琴,陈维升．近几年日本地震的临震前兆信息[J]．北京工业大学学报,1995,21(4):1-12．LI Jun-zhi,XIA Ya-qin,CHEN Wei-sheng.The precursory information of impending earthquake learnt from the strong earthquake of the past few years in Japan[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,1995,21(4):1-12.(in Chinese).
[2]李均之,夏雅琴,陈维升,等．临震预测试验及有关预测机理[C]//香山科学会议第133次学术讨论会会议论文集．北京:科学出版社,2002:3-11．LI Jun-zhi,XIA Ya-qin,CHEN Wei-sheng,et al.The experiments of imminent earthquake prediction and the mechanism of relational prediction[C]//The Transactions of 133rd China Xiangshan Science Conference.Beijing:Science Press,2002:3- 11.(in Chinese)
[3]白志强,李均之．利用多种观测方法对中国西部地震预报的初步实验[C]//中国地球物理学会年刊．北京:科学技术出版社,2001:225．BAI Zhi-qiang,LI Jun-zhi.Elementary experiments on prediction of earthquakes in west of China with multi-subjects and multi-methods[C]//Annual of the Chinese Geophysical Society.Beijing:Publishing House of Science and Technology,2001: 225.(in Chinese)
[4]李均之,白志强,陈维升,等．昆仑山口西M．8．1级地震前兆简介[J]．地学前缘,2003,10(4):428．LI Jun-zhi,BAI Zhi-qiang,CHEN Wei-sheng,et al.Brief introduction of precursors for M.8.1 earthquake occurred in west of mountain gap of kunlun,China[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2003,10(4):428.(in Chinese)
[5]李均之,任振球,黄相宁．新疆伽师强震群的临震预测[C]//中国减灾研究．北京:科学技术出版社,1998:409-413．LI Jun-zhi,REN Zhen-qiu,HUANG Xiang-ning.Imminent prediction of group of strong earthquakes in Jiashi,Xinjiang[C]// Study on Reducing Natural Disasters in China.Beijing:Publishing House of Science and Technology,1998:409-413.(in Chinese)
[6]LI Jun-zhi,BAI Zhi-qiang,CHEN Wei-sheng,et al.Strong earthquakes can be predicted:A muhidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2003,3:703-712.
[7]李均之,陈维升,夏雅琴,等．台湾7．6级地震的前兆信息[C]//香山科学会议133次学术讨论会议论文集．北京:科学出版社,2002:48-51．LI Jun-zhi,CHEN Wei-sheng,XIA Ya-qin,et al.The precursory information for ms 7.6 earthquake occurred in taiwan[C]// The transactions of 133rd China Xiangshan Science Conference.Beijing:Science Press,2002:48-51.(in Chinese)
[8]李均之,夏稚琴,陈维升．近几年日本地震的临震前兆信息[J]．北京工业大学学报,1995,21(4):1-12．LI Jun-zhi,XIA Ya-qin,CHEN Wei-sheng.The precursory information of impending earthquake learnt from the strong earthquake of the past few years in Japan[J].Journal of Beijing University of Technology,1995,21(4):1-12.(in Chinese).
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