砂土液化全概率分析方法探讨
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摘要
基于全概率理论,同时考虑地震和土性两方面不确定性对土层一点液化势指数的影响,推导出在一定年限内土层一点液化势指数及整个柱状土层液化程度的概率分布,并通过算例进行了说明。结果表明,砂土液化全概率分析方法具有时间和统计上的意义,更合理地评价了场地的液化可能性。
Based on full probability method,the effect on the soil liquefaction index is considered of the variance in the occurrences of earthquake and the variance of soil resistance.The probability distribution is deduced on soil liquefaction index to each soil layer and every liquefaction grade of whole layer in certain fixed number of years,and the method is applied in practical engineering.The results show that the soil liquefaction in full probability has the significance in time and statistics,and is more rational to soil liquefaction assessment.
Based on full probability method,the effect on the soil liquefaction index is considered of the variance in the occurrences of earthquake and the variance of soil resistance.The probability distribution is deduced on soil liquefaction index to each soil layer and every liquefaction grade of whole layer in certain fixed number of years,and the method is applied in practical engineering.The results show that the soil liquefaction in full probability has the significance in time and statistics,and is more rational to soil liquefaction assessment.
引文
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[2]陈建峰,石振明,唐益群.基于Monte Carlo的砂土地震液化危害概率分析方法[J],地下空间与工程学报,2005,1(1):88-90.(Chen Jianfeng,ShiZhenming,Tang Yiqun.Probililistic analysis of sandliquifation on Monte Carlo[J].Chinese Journal ofUnderground Space and Engineering,2005,1(1):88-90.(in Chinese))
[3]陈建峰,胡琪琪,石振明,砂土地震液化危害的概率分析[J],工程地质学报,2004.12:170-173.(ChenJianfeng,Hu Qiqi,Shi Zhenming.Probililistic analysisof sand liquifation[J].Journal of GeotechnicalEngineering,2004,12:170-173.(in Chinese)).
[4]Rahman,M.S.and Zahaby,K.M.Probabilisticliquefaction risk analysis including fuzzy variables[J].Soil Dynamics and Earthquake En gineering,1997,Vol.16,pp.63-73.
[5]Loh,C.H.,and Cheng,C.R..Probabilisticevaluation of liquefaction potential under earthquakeloading[J].Soil Dynamic and EarthquakeEngineering,1995,Vol.16,pp.269-278.
[6]崔杰,门福录.砂土液化的概率和模糊概率法[C],第五届全国土动力学学术会议论文集.(Cui Jie,MenFulu.Evaluation method on probability and fuzzyprobability of liquifaction of sand[C].Proc.of the 5thSoil Dynamatic Conference in China.(in Chinese))
[7]胡聿贤,工程地震学[M],地震出版社,2006.(HuYuxian.Earthquake Engineering[M],Beijing:Seismological Press,2006.(in Chinese))
[8]Seed H B,Idriss I M.Simplified procedure forevaluating soil liquefaction potential[J].Journal of SoilMechanics and Foundations Division,ASCE,1971,97(9):1 249-1 273.
[9]中华人民共和国建设部.建筑抗震设计规范[S].中国建设工业出版社,2008.(Ministry of Construction ofthe People’s Republic of China.Code for seismicdesign of buildings[S].Beijing:China ConstructionPress,2008.(in Chinese))
[10]Y Yao Chi and Li Ting Ou.A study on probabilisticevaluation of soil liquefaction[J].Soil Dynamic andEarthquake Engineering,2003,Vol.21,pp.321-334.
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