非完整滑坡编目三参数反Gamma概率分布模型
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摘要
中国"5.12"地震震级高,震源浅,于震区内触发了大量滑坡。为了研究地震滑坡的概率分布特征,对四川映秀极震区(约109.3 km2)地震滑坡进行系统编目,该编目属非完整滑坡编目。利用该编目建立三参数反Gamma概率分布模型,其拟合参数分别为b=1.11,a=2.17×10-3 km2及s=-3.925×10-4 km2。基于该模型对编目区内滑坡面积均值、总面积及最大滑坡面积进行计算,并引入滑坡标度及建立指数修正函数分别对"5.12"四川汶川地震触发滑坡总数及滑坡总面积进行预测,同时建议模型建立原则。研究结果表明:模型的幂律衰减参数值与已有研究结果相近;模型对编目区内滑坡面积均值、总面积及最大滑坡面积的计算结果与实测值之间的相对误差均为10%左右;模型对"5.12"汶川地震触发滑坡总数及滑坡总面积的预测结果均与已有研究结果比较接近。
Because the "5.12" earthquake is of high magnitude and shallow hypocenter,it triggered a large number of landslides in seismic area.In order to research probability distribution of these earthquake-induced landslides,systematic earthquake-induced landslides inventory in Yingxiu meizoseismal area in Sichuan Province(about 109.3 km2),which is an imcomplete landslide inventory compared with those throughout seismic area,was finished.On the basis of the incomplete landslides inventory,a three-parameters inverse-gamma probability distribution model was presented,in which the three parameters are b=1.11,a=2.17×10-3 km2,s=-3.925×10-4 km2 respectively.By means of the model,the mean,total and maximum landslide areas in inventoried area were calculated,and the total number and area of landslide triggered by the "5.12" earthquake were predicted by introducing landslide magnitude scale and exponential correcting function.Meanwhile,some suggestions for building three-parameters inverse-gamma probability distribution model were proposed.The results show that power-law decay parameters of the model are comparable to the previous research results.Computed relaive errors,with respect to the mean,total and maximum landslide areas in inventoried zone,are all about 10%.The total number and area of "5.12" earthquake induced landslide resulting from prediction of the model are both comparable to the previous research results.
Because the "5.12" earthquake is of high magnitude and shallow hypocenter,it triggered a large number of landslides in seismic area.In order to research probability distribution of these earthquake-induced landslides,systematic earthquake-induced landslides inventory in Yingxiu meizoseismal area in Sichuan Province(about 109.3 km2),which is an imcomplete landslide inventory compared with those throughout seismic area,was finished.On the basis of the incomplete landslides inventory,a three-parameters inverse-gamma probability distribution model was presented,in which the three parameters are b=1.11,a=2.17×10-3 km2,s=-3.925×10-4 km2 respectively.By means of the model,the mean,total and maximum landslide areas in inventoried area were calculated,and the total number and area of landslide triggered by the "5.12" earthquake were predicted by introducing landslide magnitude scale and exponential correcting function.Meanwhile,some suggestions for building three-parameters inverse-gamma probability distribution model were proposed.The results show that power-law decay parameters of the model are comparable to the previous research results.Computed relaive errors,with respect to the mean,total and maximum landslide areas in inventoried zone,are all about 10%.The total number and area of "5.12" earthquake induced landslide resulting from prediction of the model are both comparable to the previous research results.
引文
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[18]许冲,戴福初,陈剑,等.汶川Ms8.0地震重灾区次生地质灾害遥感精细解译[J].遥感学报,2009,13(4):754-762.XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,CHEN Jian,et al.Identification andanalysis of secondary geological hazards triggered by amagnitude 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of RemoteSensing,2009,13(4):754-762.
[2]Malamud B D,Turcotte D L,Guzzetti F,et al.Landslideinventories and their statistical properties[J].Earth SurfaceProcesses and Landforms,2004,29(6):687-711.
[3]Dai F C,Lee C F,Ngai Y Y.Landslide risk assessment andmanagement:an overview[J].Engineering Geology,2002,64(1):65-87.
[4]Chau K T,Sze Y L,Fung M K,et al.Landslide hazard analysisfor Hong Kong using landslide inventory and GIS[J].Computers&Geosciences,2004,30(4):429-443.
[5]王秋良,薛宏交,杨强,等.北川地区地震灾害的地形因子分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(6):68-72.WANG Qiu-liang,XUE Hong-jiao,YANG Qiang,et al.Analysis on terrain factors of earthquake disaster in Beichuanarea[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2008,28(6):68-72.
[6]Keefer D K.Statistical analysis of an earthquake-inducedlandslide distribution:The 1989 Loma Prieta,California event[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(3/4):231-249.
[7]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.HUANG Run-qiu,LI Wei-le.Research on development anddistribution rules of geohazards induced by Wenchuanearthquake on 12th May,2008[J].Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[8]Lee L M,Gofar N,Rahardjo H.A simple model for preliminaryevaluation of rainfall-induced slope instability[J].EngineeringGeology,2009,108(3/4):272-285.
[9]Salciarini D,Godt J W,Savage W Z,et al.Modeling landsliderecurrence in Seattle,Washington,USA[J].EngineeringGeology,2008,102(3/4):227-237.
[10]van Den E M,Poesen J,Govers G,et al.Characteristics of thesize distribution of recent and historical landslides in a populatedhilly region[J].Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2007,256(3/4):588-603.
[11]Jaiswal P,Van Westen C J.Estimating temporal probability forlandslide initiation along transportation routes based on rainfallthresholds[J].Geomorphology,2009,112(1/2):96-105.
[12]Stark C P,Hovius N.The characterization of landslide sizedistributions[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2001,28(6):1091.
[13]Refice A,Capolongo D.Probabilistic modeling of uncertaintiesin earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment[J].Computers&Geosciences,2002,28(6):735-749.
[14]Guzzetti F,Reichenbach P,Cardinali M,et al.Probabilisticlandslide hazard assessment at the basin scale[J].Geomorphology,2005,72(1/4):272-299.
[15]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川地震触发崩塌滑坡数量及其密度特征分析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2009,20(3):1-7.HUANG Run-qiu,LI Wei-le.Analysis on the number anddensity of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuanearthquanke,China[J].Journal of Geological Hazards andEnvironment Preservation,2009,20(3):1-7.
[16]殷跃平.汶川八级地震地质灾害研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(4):433-444.YIN Yue-ping.Researches on the geo-hazards triggered byWenchuan Earthquake,Sichuan[J].Journal of EngineeringGeology,2008,16(4):433-444.
[17]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫.汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害的数量与面积[J].科技导报,2009,27(11):79-81.XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,YAO Xin.Incidence number andaffected area of wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides[J].Science&Technology Review,2009,27(11):79-81.
[18]许冲,戴福初,陈剑,等.汶川Ms8.0地震重灾区次生地质灾害遥感精细解译[J].遥感学报,2009,13(4):754-762.XU Chong,DAI Fu-chu,CHEN Jian,et al.Identification andanalysis of secondary geological hazards triggered by amagnitude 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of RemoteSensing,2009,13(4):754-762.
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