地下水观测数据拟合与预测的支持向量机方法
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摘要
影响地下水位变化因素有很多,在正常情况下,地下水位的变化实际上反应了气压、固体潮和降雨这些因素的变化,但是这些影响因子与地下水位之间有着较强的非线性关系。该文使用支持向量机方法建立起崇明中学观测站地下水位与气压、固体潮和降雨这些因素之间的非线性关系模型,并用于地下水观测数据拟合与预测,得到了较理想的结果,明显优于逐步回归方法。研究结果表明,支持向量机方法在地震前兆数据处理中有着广泛的应用前景。文中还对支持向量机方法在实际应用中的有关问题进行了讨论。
There are many factors affect the variation of groundwater level.In general the variation of groundwater level is influenced by the factors of air pressure,solid tide,rain and et al.But there is strong nonlinear relation between these factors and groundwater level.The nonlinear model of relation between the groundwater level of Chongming Middle School and the factors of air pressure,solid tide and rain is established by support vector machine method.The analogizing and forecasting data of groundwater gained by support vector machine is very good.It is far better than that by stepwise regression method.The results indicate that the support vector machine possesses extensive application prospects in processing earthquake precursory data.Some other problems relating to the practical application of the support vector machine method are also discussed in this paper.
There are many factors affect the variation of groundwater level.In general the variation of groundwater level is influenced by the factors of air pressure,solid tide,rain and et al.But there is strong nonlinear relation between these factors and groundwater level.The nonlinear model of relation between the groundwater level of Chongming Middle School and the factors of air pressure,solid tide and rain is established by support vector machine method.The analogizing and forecasting data of groundwater gained by support vector machine is very good.It is far better than that by stepwise regression method.The results indicate that the support vector machine possesses extensive application prospects in processing earthquake precursory data.Some other problems relating to the practical application of the support vector machine method are also discussed in this paper.
引文
[1]汪成民,车用太,万迪堃,等.地下水微动态研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1988.
[2]张昭栋,耿杰,高玉斌,等.菏泽5.9级地震前豫01井水位对气压和固体潮响应的变化[J].地震,1994,17(2):164-170.
[3]张元胜.深井水位气压系数前兆信息探索[J].内陆地震,1997,(11):1:57-61.
[4]Cristianini N,Shawe-Taylor J.支持向量机导论[M].李国正等译.北京:电子工业出版社,2004.82-106.
[5]王景雷,吴景社,孙景生,等.支持向量机在地下水位预报中的应用研究[J].水利学报,2003,49(5):122-128.
[6]王炜,刘悦,李国正,等.中国大陆强震时间序列预测的支持向量机方法[J].地震,2005,25(4):26-32.
[7]王炜,刘悦,李国正,等.判断未来我国大陆地震形势的支持向量机方法[J].地震学报,2006,28(1):29-36.
[8]李志雄,王志成,袁锡文,等.基于小波变换和支持向量机的中国大陆强震预测[J].地震,2006,26(3):64-70.
[9]唐启义,冯光明.实用统计分析及其DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[2]张昭栋,耿杰,高玉斌,等.菏泽5.9级地震前豫01井水位对气压和固体潮响应的变化[J].地震,1994,17(2):164-170.
[3]张元胜.深井水位气压系数前兆信息探索[J].内陆地震,1997,(11):1:57-61.
[4]Cristianini N,Shawe-Taylor J.支持向量机导论[M].李国正等译.北京:电子工业出版社,2004.82-106.
[5]王景雷,吴景社,孙景生,等.支持向量机在地下水位预报中的应用研究[J].水利学报,2003,49(5):122-128.
[6]王炜,刘悦,李国正,等.中国大陆强震时间序列预测的支持向量机方法[J].地震,2005,25(4):26-32.
[7]王炜,刘悦,李国正,等.判断未来我国大陆地震形势的支持向量机方法[J].地震学报,2006,28(1):29-36.
[8]李志雄,王志成,袁锡文,等.基于小波变换和支持向量机的中国大陆强震预测[J].地震,2006,26(3):64-70.
[9]唐启义,冯光明.实用统计分析及其DPS数据处理系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
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