潜在地震破裂面源模型及在概率地震危险性分析中的应用方法
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摘要
目前国内外常用的概率地震危险性分析方法中,一般把未来可能发生的地震震源(潜在震源)简化为点源或者是线源.但对于较大震级的地震,仍然采用点源或线源模型来描述潜在震源显然是不合理的.为此,在概率地震危险性分析方法中本文提出了潜在地震破裂面源模型,并以1999年9月21日台湾集集7.6级地震的车笼埔断层为例,探讨了其在地震危险性分析中的应用方法.结果表明:①采用潜在地震破裂面源模型是合理的,因为它可以模拟地震破裂面与地震动影响场的三维展布特征,尤其适用于较大震级地震的近场区域;②潜在地震破裂面源的大小、产状,对近震源场点的地震危险性分析和地震区划结果有明显的控制影响.
Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. ① This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; ② The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.
Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. ① This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; ② The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.
引文
[1]中国地震烈度区划图(1990)编委会.1990.编图资料.
[2]中国地震动参数区划图(2001)编委会.2001.编图报告.
陈培善,白彤霞.1991.震源参数之间的定量关系[J].地震学报,13(4):401-411.
陈培善,李保昆,白彤霞.1998.根据构造环境应力场预测峰值水平加速度[J].地球物理学报,41(4):502-517.
国家地震局地球物理研究所.1987.中国地震考察[M].北京:地震出版社:20-61.
环文林,时振梁.1993.中国大陆内部走滑型发震断层的长度与震级的关系[G]∥国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社:42-48.
胡聿贤.1999.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社:293-302.
徐锡伟,陈文彬,于贵华,等.2002.2001年11月14日昆仑山库赛湖地震(MS8.1)地表破裂带的基本特征[J].地震地质,24(1):1-13.
俞言祥,高孟潭.2001.台湾集集地震近场地震动的上盘效应[J].地震学报,23(6):615-621.
Abrahamson N A,Somerville P G.1996.Effects of the hanging wall andfootwall on ground motions recorded duringtheNorthridge earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,86(1B):S93-S99.
Aki K.1968.Seismic displacements near a fault[J].J Geophys Res,73(16):5359-5376.
Campbell K W.1997.Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peakground acceleration,peak ground velocity and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra[J].SeismRes Lett,68(1):154-179.
Campbell K W.1987.Predicting strong ground motionin Utah[R]∥Gori P L,Hays W Wed.Assessment of RegionalEarthquake Hazard and Risk alongthe Wasatch Front.Utah:US Geological Survey Open File Report.87-585,II:L-1-120.
Geller RJ.1976.Scaling relations for earthquake source parameter and magnitude[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,66(6):1501-1523.
Kanamori H,Anderson D L.1975.Theoretical basis of some empirical relationsin seismology[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,65(6):1073-1095.
Reiter L.1991.Earthquake Hazard Analysis:Issues and Insights[M].New York:Columbia University Press:119-146.
Sadigh K,Chang C Y,Egan J A,et al.1997.Attenuation relationships for shallowcrustal earthquakes based on Califor-nia strong motion data[J].SeismRes Lett,68(1):180-189.
Schnabel P B,Seed HB.1973.Accelerations in rock for earthquakes in the Western United States[J].Bull Seism SocAmer,63(2):501-516.
Shin T C,Teng T L.2001.An overviewof the1999Chi-Chi,Tai wan,earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,91(5):895-913.
Wells D L,Coppersmith KJ.1994.Newempirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rup-ture area,and surface displacement[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84(5):974-1002.
[2]中国地震动参数区划图(2001)编委会.2001.编图报告.
陈培善,白彤霞.1991.震源参数之间的定量关系[J].地震学报,13(4):401-411.
陈培善,李保昆,白彤霞.1998.根据构造环境应力场预测峰值水平加速度[J].地球物理学报,41(4):502-517.
国家地震局地球物理研究所.1987.中国地震考察[M].北京:地震出版社:20-61.
环文林,时振梁.1993.中国大陆内部走滑型发震断层的长度与震级的关系[G]∥国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社:42-48.
胡聿贤.1999.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社:293-302.
徐锡伟,陈文彬,于贵华,等.2002.2001年11月14日昆仑山库赛湖地震(MS8.1)地表破裂带的基本特征[J].地震地质,24(1):1-13.
俞言祥,高孟潭.2001.台湾集集地震近场地震动的上盘效应[J].地震学报,23(6):615-621.
Abrahamson N A,Somerville P G.1996.Effects of the hanging wall andfootwall on ground motions recorded duringtheNorthridge earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,86(1B):S93-S99.
Aki K.1968.Seismic displacements near a fault[J].J Geophys Res,73(16):5359-5376.
Campbell K W.1997.Empirical near-source attenuation relationships for horizontal and vertical components of peakground acceleration,peak ground velocity and pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra[J].SeismRes Lett,68(1):154-179.
Campbell K W.1987.Predicting strong ground motionin Utah[R]∥Gori P L,Hays W Wed.Assessment of RegionalEarthquake Hazard and Risk alongthe Wasatch Front.Utah:US Geological Survey Open File Report.87-585,II:L-1-120.
Geller RJ.1976.Scaling relations for earthquake source parameter and magnitude[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,66(6):1501-1523.
Kanamori H,Anderson D L.1975.Theoretical basis of some empirical relationsin seismology[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,65(6):1073-1095.
Reiter L.1991.Earthquake Hazard Analysis:Issues and Insights[M].New York:Columbia University Press:119-146.
Sadigh K,Chang C Y,Egan J A,et al.1997.Attenuation relationships for shallowcrustal earthquakes based on Califor-nia strong motion data[J].SeismRes Lett,68(1):180-189.
Schnabel P B,Seed HB.1973.Accelerations in rock for earthquakes in the Western United States[J].Bull Seism SocAmer,63(2):501-516.
Shin T C,Teng T L.2001.An overviewof the1999Chi-Chi,Tai wan,earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,91(5):895-913.
Wells D L,Coppersmith KJ.1994.Newempirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rup-ture area,and surface displacement[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84(5):974-1002.
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