江苏及邻区中强震的灰色马尔柯夫模型
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摘要
为了探索新的地震灾变预测途径，探讨了集不同手段之长所构筑的一种新模式，其方法是在灰色模型（ＧＭ（１，１））的基础上划分多个与预测值平行的状态区间，考察下一步状态的转移概率，形成灰色马尔柯夫预测模型。将震级和时间等作为预测要素，通过模型给出其变化的灰区间和最大可能值。实例表明，由于灰色预测和马尔柯夫转移概率矩阵两者互补优势，形成的新模型优化了预测结果。作为新方法，灰色马尔柯夫模型值得深入研究。
For exploring the new forecast way of seismic disasters, this paper offers some new models which assimilated strong points from different means. The method is that on the foundation of grey model (GM (1, 1) ), inspecting the future transferred probability on many state fields within paralled calculated areas, take shape the grey Markov models. The magnitude and orgin time could taken as the prediction elements and the grey change range and maximum possible value are given by the models. Because mutual additional superiority between grey prediction and Markov matrix of tranferred probability, the results of prediction have been optimized by the new models. As a method, grey Markov model is worth in-depth study.
For exploring the new forecast way of seismic disasters, this paper offers some new models which assimilated strong points from different means. The method is that on the foundation of grey model (GM (1, 1) ), inspecting the future transferred probability on many state fields within paralled calculated areas, take shape the grey Markov models. The magnitude and orgin time could taken as the prediction elements and the grey change range and maximum possible value are given by the models. Because mutual additional superiority between grey prediction and Markov matrix of tranferred probability, the results of prediction have been optimized by the new models. As a method, grey Markov model is worth in-depth study.
引文
1张绍治．地震活动的灰色预测和地震前兆的灰色判别．华南地震，1991，11（3）：56～642张绍治，姜慧兰，范桂英．1991年11月5日江苏射阳Ns4．7级地震的预测和前兆．华南地震，1993，13（2）：50～543张绍治．扬铜地震构造带中强地震灰色预测．西北地震学报，1994，16（2）：79～84
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