由震洪相关回顾性预测1870年长江特大洪水
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摘要
１８７０ 年长江特大洪水是多因叠加和强化的结果， 因之要预测它也要从各方面去研究。如特大洪水前的先行降雨和洪水所反映的大气环流状况及太阳活动情况等。本文把１９３１ 年、１９５４年、１９９１ 年长江大洪水前一年内缅甸北部有７ 级以上大震及１９９８ 年长江大洪前一年内缅北有６级左右震群集中活动的相关指标移用于１８７０ 年长江特大洪水前， 发现其前一年， 即１８６９ 年缅北亦有７ 级以上大震发生。震洪相关的物理机制是与地震活动有关的地下放气使孟加拉湾向长江流域输送的水气更多，如遇北方冷气团南下则降大雨致洪。另外，１８７０ 年长江洪水之所以比１９３１ 年、１９５４ 年、１９９１ 年和１９９８ 年长江洪水还大， 我们认为１８７０ 年４ 月１１ 日在长江上游山区有７ 级以上大震发生， 且震前有大雪发生， 是叠加在前述致洪因素上的另一因素。
The 1870 extraordinary flood in Yangtze River is a result of multi cause superposition and their intensification. So its forecast needs the study in many related aspects, for instance, the condition of the atmospheric circulation and solar activity reflected by rainfall and flood before the extraordinary flood. It is shown in this paper that there was an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 in northern Burma one year before the catastrophic Yangtze River floods respectively in 1931, 1954 and 1991, and also an earthquake swarm with magnitude around 6 in northern Burma one year before the extraordinary flood along Yangtze River in 1998. Applying this result to the 1870 Yangtze River extraordinary flood, it is found that also an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 occurred in 1869, just one year before the flood, in northern Burma. The physical mechanism of correlativity between earthquake and flood is the seismicity related emission of underground gas that makes the Bay of Bengal carry more aqueous vapor to the Yangtze River valley. In case of cold air mass going from the north to south, the heavy rain may lead to flood. We believe that the reason why the 1870 Yangtze River flood is greater than those respectively in 1931,1954, 1991 and 1998 along the Yangtze River is the occurrence of great earthquake with magnitude over 7 on April 11, 1870 in the mountain area in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the heavy snow before the earthquake event. This is another factor of flood origination superimposed to those mentioned above.
The 1870 extraordinary flood in Yangtze River is a result of multi cause superposition and their intensification. So its forecast needs the study in many related aspects, for instance, the condition of the atmospheric circulation and solar activity reflected by rainfall and flood before the extraordinary flood. It is shown in this paper that there was an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 in northern Burma one year before the catastrophic Yangtze River floods respectively in 1931, 1954 and 1991, and also an earthquake swarm with magnitude around 6 in northern Burma one year before the extraordinary flood along Yangtze River in 1998. Applying this result to the 1870 Yangtze River extraordinary flood, it is found that also an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 occurred in 1869, just one year before the flood, in northern Burma. The physical mechanism of correlativity between earthquake and flood is the seismicity related emission of underground gas that makes the Bay of Bengal carry more aqueous vapor to the Yangtze River valley. In case of cold air mass going from the north to south, the heavy rain may lead to flood. We believe that the reason why the 1870 Yangtze River flood is greater than those respectively in 1931,1954, 1991 and 1998 along the Yangtze River is the occurrence of great earthquake with magnitude over 7 on April 11, 1870 in the mountain area in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the heavy snow before the earthquake event. This is another factor of flood origination superimposed to those mentioned above.
引文
1 郭增建, 秦保燕. 灾害物理学. 西安: 陕西科技出版社, 1989, 188～189
2 高发金,孙恒兵. 强震与最大洪峰流量关系的探讨. 见: 全国减轻自然灾害研讨会论文集. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社, 1990, 290～292
3 郭增建, 秦保燕, 李革平. 大震和大洪、大旱的异域相关. 西北地震学报, 1991, 13 (3): 37
4 郭增建, 秦保燕, 李革平. 未来灾害学. 北京: 地震出版社, 1992
5 太阳、天气、气候J、R、Herm an R、A、Goldberg 著. 北京: 气象出版社, 1984, 盛承泉等译, P49
6 郭增建. 滇缅大震与长江巨洪的遥相关. 自然灾害学报, 1998, 7 (1)
7 陆人骥. 中国历史灾害性海潮史料. 北京: 海洋出版社, 1984
2 高发金,孙恒兵. 强震与最大洪峰流量关系的探讨. 见: 全国减轻自然灾害研讨会论文集. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社, 1990, 290～292
3 郭增建, 秦保燕, 李革平. 大震和大洪、大旱的异域相关. 西北地震学报, 1991, 13 (3): 37
4 郭增建, 秦保燕, 李革平. 未来灾害学. 北京: 地震出版社, 1992
5 太阳、天气、气候J、R、Herm an R、A、Goldberg 著. 北京: 气象出版社, 1984, 盛承泉等译, P49
6 郭增建. 滇缅大震与长江巨洪的遥相关. 自然灾害学报, 1998, 7 (1)
7 陆人骥. 中国历史灾害性海潮史料. 北京: 海洋出版社, 1984
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