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[1]Gruppo di Lavoro,2004,http://zonesis-miche.mi.ingv.it/.2004年意大利地震危险性图所用震源模型已发表,见Meletti et al,2008.
[2]Chiarabba et al,2009;Anzidei et al,2009;Atzori et al,2009.帕加尼卡断层曾由Bagnaia等(1992)认定为活动构造.
[3]Basili et al,2008.
[4]Marzocchi and Lombardi,2009.这次余震预报模型的应用似为短期预报方法在意大利的首次使用.“显著有效”的评价是相对于不含时间的预报而言.
[5]Grandori and Guagenti,2009.
[6]委员会于2009年5月13日会见了朱利安尼先生.
[7]在2009年4月6日主震前后朱利安尼先生对媒体作出了互相矛盾的表述.会见朱利安尼先生的报道见http://www.youtube.com/INGV-terremotiJHJp/u/13/c7-9lNkA-y4.
[8]Jordan et al,2009.
[9]例如,利用拉奎拉地震的地震记录估计的震中(震源上方地表点)位于42.342°N,13.380°E,震源深度为8.3千米,发震时刻为世界时01∶32∶40.4(当地时间03∶32∶40.4).
[10]地震矩M0正比于破裂面积乘以平均破裂位移.矩震级以公式MW=(2/3)log M0-6.03定义,其中M0的单位是牛顿·米(Nm).由远震波形测定拉奎拉地震的地震矩为3.4×1018Nm,相应的矩震级MW=6.3(Pondrelli et al,2010).
[11]观测到的断层破裂辐射的地震能量大体正比于地震矩M0,且高出几个量级,故可用logE~3/2M W表示;因此,矩震级增加一个单位,相应的地震能量增加32倍.平均的E/M0≈3×10-5,相应于~1MPa的视应力(Ide and Beroza,2001).
[12]INGV,2009.2009年4月拉奎拉地震序列见http://portale.ingv.it/primo-piano/archivio-pri-mo-piano/notizie-2009/terremoto-6-aprile/copy_of_la-sequenza-sismica-dell-aquilano-aprile-2009/view?set_language=it.
[13]Gutenberg and Richter,1956.古登堡—里克特定标意味着事件的频度按地震矩的幂次律下降:N~M-2b/30.
[14]Marone,1998;Boettcher et al,2009.
[15]Schorlemmer et al,2010.对2005年4月16日以来的地震报告分析表明,除撒丁岛、潘泰莱里亚和蓝佩杜萨岛以外的意大利全境,意大利国家地震台网对ML2.9以上的地震是完整的.对意大利民防署报告的阈值ML2.5,台网在阿普利亚区南部和西西里岛西部可能有地震被遗漏.在阿布罗佐大区,以及亚平宁山脉的中部和南部的其他地区,低至ML1.5的阈值目录是完整的.
[16]Utsu,1978;Kagan,1997b;Bird et al,2002.
[17]Voisin et al,2000;Kilb et al,2000;Freed,2005.
[18]震级为M的主震产生的震级阈值M0以上的余震数正比于exp[α(M-M0)],其中触发指数α近似为常数(Utsu and Seki,1955;Utsu1971).
[19]改进的大森定标关系表明余震发生率随时间按幂次律衰减:n(t)=K(t+c)-p,其中K,c和p是常数,且p通常接近1(Utsu,1961).
[20]Ogata,1988;Ogata et al,1993;Ogata and Zhuang,2006;Helmstetter and Sornette,2002;Marzocchi and Zhuang,2011.
[21]Helmstetter et al,2003;Sornette and Wer-ner,2005.
[22]Helmstetter and Sornette,2003;Felzer et al,2004.
[23]“特征地震”一词用以描述具有相似特征的地表破裂、特别是相似的地表位移(Schwartz and Coppersmith,1984)的反复发生的地震.最近的研究指出破裂具有各种尺度的不均匀的复杂的位移分布(如Konca et al,2008).因此,本报告采用更一般的定义:特征地震是具有近似相等的平均位移,也即相似的地震矩的整个断层段的破裂.
[24]在更新点过程中,相继事件间的时间被认为是互相独立的相同分布的随机变量.当破裂在断层段上发生时,就将更新过程重置于其初始状态.复发间隔的分布以平均复发时间间隔和非周期性因子为参数的概率密度函数模拟,非周期性因子则以变异系数(以平均复发时间间隔归一的标准偏差)估计.这种分布的例子有对数正态、韦布尔(Weibull)和布朗(Brownian)过程时间(BPT)分布.见Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,2003.
[25]Jordan,2009.
[26]Cutter et al,2008;Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research,2008;www.nehrp.gov/pdf/Seismic WavesNov08.pdf.
[27]Somerville et al,2003.http://www.eeri.org/cds_publications/research_plan_05-2003.pdf.联合国国际减灾战略秘书处2009年的报告指出了这一问题:“由于国家的发展,经济条件和管理都有改善,易损性降低了,但易损性降低不够快,不足以补偿面临的增加,特别是在那些迅速增长的低收入和中低收入国家.”
[28]Cornell,1968.
[29]Frankel et al,1996,2002;Wesson et al,2007;Petersen et al,2008.
[30]Giardini et al,1999.
[31]Abrahamson and Shedlock,1997;Field et al,2003.
[32]在这类点过程中,“标志”是地震震级(Vere-Jones,1995;Ogata,1999).
[33]Molchan and Kagan,1992.
[34]Field et al,2008,2009.
[35]在天气预报中几年前达成了前瞻性信息的概率表述的共识,称确定性预测为“明确的预报”(Murphy,1986).
[36]Jackson,1996.
[37]假定某区域目标事件的平均发生率为R(平均复发时间间隔的倒数),则该区域在任一时间区间T发生1个或1个以上事件的泊松概率为Ppoisson=1-e-RT.当预报时间间隔远小于复发时间间隔时,Ppoisson≈RT.例如,复发时间间隔为300年时,3天的发震概率约为3×10-5.
[38]Raleigh et al,1977.
[39]综合回顾了有关文件和证据后,Wang等(2006)认为“海城地震预报是迷茫困惑、经验分析、直觉判断和良好运气的融合.”
[40]Hough,2009.
[41]当事件概率为50%时,这一类型的不确定性(香农不确定性)最大.
[42]Harte and Vere-Jones,2005.
[43]Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee,1997;Meyer and Booker,2001.
[44]Jolliffe and Stephenson,2003.
[45]Zechar and Jordan,2008.
[46]意大利ML≥4地震的平均发生率约为每年16次(Chiarabba et al,2005),故在未来一年中这类地震不发生的泊松概率仅为10-7左右.
[47]Stark,1996,1997.
[48]Murphy,1993.
[49]Katz and Murphy,1997.
[50]在天气预报中,“校核”一词用于代替“验证”(如Jolliffe and Stephenson,2003).本报告采用计算机科学中比较典型的用法(Roache,1998).校核是用事实证明模型在规定的精度上“做其应做之事”,如某计算机代码在数学方面是正确的并被正确执行.验证用以确定模型在其假定的应用范围内充分描述了真实系统的表现且其认识不确定性特征得到恰当的表述.校核可以通过与其他模型的比较来完成(如通过交叉验证),但验证需要模型结果与观测资料做比较.
[51]Jordan et al,2003.
[52]Reid,1911.
[53]古地震学利用由地质记录(如通过跨活断层挖槽外露的土层扰动)得到的信息研究史前地震.在有利的情况,利用碳同位素或其他放射性测年方法可求得受到扰动的层位的年代(McCalpin,2009).有关意大利的实例,可考见Pantosti et al,1993;Galli et al,2008.
[54]Akinci et al,2009.
[55]Biasi and Weldon,2009.
[56]Ellsworth et al,1999;Sykes and Menke,2006;McGuire,2008.
[57]事件测年中无关联的认知不确定性会增加复发时间间隔的视离散度,但其他类型的不确定性可能使其减小.例如,古地震目录无法分辨空间上过于接近的事件,而如果复发时间在和目录间隔可比的时间尺度上是相关的,仪器目录会太短而无法测定复发时间的充分变化.即使历史目录中的年代经常有较好的约束,事件的震级和位置也会是高度不确定的,从而导致解释的偏差.
[58]Ben-Zion et al,1999.
[59]Ishibashi,1981;Mogi,1981.
[60]Bakun and Lindh,1985.
[61]Berkhemer et al,1988.
[62]Woith et al,2009.
[63]Savage,1993;Bakun et al,2005;Jackson and Kagan,2006.
[64]现在已意识到预测东海地震复发的特征地震模型过于简单,由于该模型既没有考虑与西面板间(东南海)地震的强相互作用,也没有考虑与东面板块碰撞的相互作用(Heki and Miyazaki,2001;Hori et al,2004).
[65]用Mogi(1985)的术语来讲,这些是“第1类地震空区”,他也发现了大地震前较小震级事件活动的第2类空区.
[66]Fedotov,1965;Kelleher et al,1973;Mc-Cann et al,1979;Nishenko,1991.
[67]Nishenko and Sykes,1993.
[68]Kagan and Jackson,1991;Kagan and Jack-son,1995;Rong et al,2003.
[69]Madariagaet al,2010.
[70]Shimazaki and Nakata,1980.
[71]Murray and Segall,2002.
[72]Mulargia and Gasperini,1995.
[73]Power and Tullis,1995;Ouillon et al,1996.
[74]Bak and Tang,1989;Sornette and Sornette,1989;Ito and Mizutani,1990.
[75]Geller et al,1997;Kagan,1997a.
[76]Main,1996.
[77]Emmermann and Lauterjung,1997.
[78]Sammis and Smith,1999;Zoller et al,2001.
[79]Jordan,2006.
[80]Wyss,1991,1997.
[81]Wyss and Booth,1997.
[82]1999年由自然杂志(编辑I.Main)组织的广泛在线辩论的稿件见http://helix.nature.com/debates/earthquake/equake-frameset.html.
[83]Geller,1997.
[84]Hamilton and the IDNDR Scientific and Tech-nical Committee,1997.
[85]Kanamori,2003.
[86]Cicerone et al,2009.
[87]Dieterich,1978;Rice,1979.
[88]Amoruso and Crescentini,2010.
[89]Johnston et al,1990.
[90]Wyatt et al,1994;Johnston et al,1994.
[91]Johnston et al,2006.
[92]Japan Meteorological Agency,2004.
[93]Linde and Sacks,2002;Schwartz and Roko-sky,2007.
[94]Linde et al,1996.
[95]Kanamori and Cipar,1974;Cifuentes and Silver,1989.
[96]Ihmléand Jordan,1994;McGuire et al,1996;McGuire and Jordan,2000.
[97]Lohman and McGuire,2007;Llenos et al,2009;Roland and McGuire,2009.
[98]Ozawa et al,2007;Delahaye et al,2009.
[99]Nersesov,1970;Aggarwal et al,1973;Armbruster and Sbar,1973;Whitcomb et al,1973.
[100]Scholz et al,1973.
[101]Rice and Rudnicki,1979.
[102]Allen and Helmberger,1973;McEvilly and Johnson,1974;Leary et al,1979.
[103]Niu et al,2008.
[104]Langbein et al,2005;Borcherdt et al,2006.
[105]Li et al,2006.
[106]Crampin et al,1999.
[107]Seher and Main,2004.
[108]Ryall and Savage,1973.
[109]Aster et al,1990,1991.
[110]在松散的沉积物和沉积岩中,电导率几乎随孔隙度的平方增加(阿奇定律),因而在干岩石中孔隙度增加时电导率一般会减小.
[111]Morat and Le Mouel,1987;Glover and Vine,1992,1994;Tyburczy and Fisler,1995;Shankland et al,1997;Roberts et al,1999;Fujita et al,2004.
[112]Barsukov and Sorokin,1973.
[113]Asada,1982;Jin,1985;Chu et al,1996.
[114]Park,2002.
[115]Uyeda et al,2009a.
[116]Gasparini and Mantovani,1978.
[117]Ulomov and Mavashen,1971.
[118]Holub and Brady,1981.
[119]Talwani et al,1980;Mogro-Campero et al,1980;Fleischer,1981;Liu et al,1984;Segovia et al,1989;Heinicke et al,1995;Virk,1997;Singh et al,1999;Planinic et al,2004;Chyi et al,2005.
[120]Wakita et al,1980.
[121]Igarashi et al,1995.
[122]Thomas(1988)已总结了地球化学前兆的理论模型.
[123]Hauksson,1981.
[124]Washington and Rose,1990.
[125]Hauksson and Goddard,1981;Einarsson et al,2008.
[126]King,1978;King and Minissale,1994;King et al,1993,1996,2006.
[127]Plastino and Bella,1999.
[128]朱利安尼在美国地球物理联合会2009年12月旧金山年会和欧洲地球物理联合会2010年5月维也纳年会上展示了他的结果.
[129]Montgomery and Manga,2003.
[130]King,1986;Roeloffs,1988;Ma et al,1990;Silver and Vallette-Silver,1992;Iga-rashi and Wakita,1995;King et al,2006.
[131]Plastino et al,2010.
[132]Freund(2007a,b)的p孔假设认为,在含水的硅酸盐矿物中,与阳离子空位相邻的“羟(基)氢氧基对”在矿物质内发生电子迁移,因此2个氧原子从2价态变为1价态,而2个质子降为H2分子.O-经自旋配对形成过氧键O3Si/oo\SiO3.从凝聚态物理的观点来看,O2-基质中的O-是缺失电子或“正空穴”(p空穴),也即驻留或通过氧的双正价带的电荷载流子.过氧键表示了正空穴对,其电性是不活跃和休眠的.过氧键在偏应力作用下被打开,正空穴被释放.这些电荷载流子是高度可移动的,从而即刻把矿物或岩石变成p型半导体.希望进一步工作以确认这一凝聚态物质的物理机制.
[133]Uyeda et al,2009b.
[134]Pulinets,2007.
[135]Yamazaki,1965;Ispido and Mizutani,1981;Gokhberg et al,1982;Baird and Kennan,1985;Parrot and Johnston,1989;Zhao et al,1991;Vallianatos et al,2004.
[136]Park et al,1993.
[137]Mogi et al,2000;Nagao et al,2000;Skordas et al,2000;Takeuchi et al,1997;Enomoto et al,2006.
[138]Hobara and Parrot,2005.
[139]Freund et al,2006;Freund,2007b;Fre-und et al,2007a;Freund and Sornette,2007.
[140]Ozaki et al,2009.
[141]Parrot,2006.
[142]Akhoondzadeh et al,2010.
[143]Němec et al,2009;Thomas et al,2010.
[144]Fraser-Smith et al,1990.
[145]Hayakawa et al,1996.
[146]Campbell,2009.
[147]Thomas et al,2009.
[148]Villante et al,2010.
[149]Varotsos et al,1993;Varotsos and Lazari-dou,1991;Varotsos,2005.
[150]Aceves et al,1996;Shnirman et al,1993;Hamada,1993.
[151]Geller,1996;Lighthill,1996;Mulargia and Gasperini,1992.
[152]Pulinets and Boyarchuk,2004;Nagao et al,2002.
[153]Fidani,2010.
[154]Papadopoulos,1999;St-Laurent,2000;Stothers,2004.
[155]St-Laurent et al,2006.
[156]Ouzounov and Freund,2004;Tramutoli et al,2005.
[157]Lisi et al,2010.
[158]Pulinets et al,2006.
[159]Freund et al,2007b.
[160]Eneva等(2008),该报告检验了2000年到2007年MODIS和ASTER卫星的资料,以及经选择的机载MASTER仪器的图像.该报告作者认为:“我们确实观测到了在加州M>4.5地震前温度的偶然升高,这样的异常在其他时间也常见,故我们认为它们不能用于地震预测,包括研究期间2次最大的震例(M6.0和M6.6).”
[161]Grant and Halliday,2010.
[162]Schall,1988.
[163]Evernden,1976.
[164]Tributsch,1982.
[165]Kirschvink,2000.
[166]Reasenberg,1999;Marzocchi and Zhuang,2011.
[167]这一类数据发掘技术已成功应用于许多科学领域,经常用在具有明确先验性质的对象的可视化和探测,这些性质对于其他方法已超出了传感器的分辨限度.例如,从模糊不清的照片中提取超速行驶的车牌号(如Han and Kamber,2006).
[168]Keilis-Borok et al,1988;Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov,1990.
[169]Peresan et al,1999.
[170]Healy et al,1992;Kossobokov et al,1999a;Peresan et al,2005;Kossobokov,2006;Kossobokov and Soloviev,2008.
[171]Molchan,1990,1991.
[172]Marzocchi et al,2003a.
[173]Main et al,2008.
[174]Shebalin et al,2006.
[175]Sobolev,2001.
[176]Shebalin,2006.
[177]Sornette and Sammis,1995.
[178]Rundle et al,2002;Tiampo et al,2002a.
[179]Toyaet al,2010.
[180]Tiampo et al,2002b.
[181]按Holliday等(2008),“该方法曾被Rundle等(2002)在2000~2010年期间用于加州预报M大于等于5的地震.这次预报试验成功地预测了随后发生的18个大地震中的16个的位置.”由于对应于这些预报的警报区域并没有明确规定,这一结果很难评估.
[182]Varnes,1989.
[183]Main,1999.
[184]Bowman et al,1998;Bowman and King,2001;Mignan et al,2007.
[185]Greenhough et al,2009.
[186]Hardebeck et al,2008.
[187]Zoback et al,2010.
[188]K.Aki(1989)的论述提供了这一研究目标的导向:“我愿将从事地震预测的物理科学家的任务规定为:在观测到特有的一组前兆现象的条件下,客观地估计在特定的空间和时间窗内地震发生的概率.”
[189]Gomberg et al,2003.
[190]Stein et al,1992,1994;Harris and Simp-son,1992;Toda et al,2005.
[191]Cocco and Rice,2002.
[192]Stein,1999;Liu et al,2009;Chen et al,2010.
[193]Rydelek and Sacks,1999;Deng and Sykes,1997;Harris et al,1996;Harris and Simp-son,1998;Marzocchi et al,2003b;Toda et al,2005;Toda,2008.
[194]Stein et al,1997.
[195]McCloskey et al,2005.
[196]Kerr,2007.
[197]Dieterich,1994;Gomberg et al,2000.
[198]Marzocchi et al,2009.
[199]Ward,1997;Rundle et al,2006;Yklmaz et al,2010.
[200]Dieterich and Richards-Dinger,2010.
[201]Mallman and Parsons,2008;Parsons and Velasco,2009.
[202]Felzer and Brodsky,2006;Main,2006.
[203]Harris and Day,1993;Oglesby,2008;Doser et al,2009.
[204]Pollitz,1992;Piersanti et al,1995;Peltz-er et al,1996;Pollitz et al,2004.
[205]Kenner and Segall,2000.
[206]Obara,2002;Miller et al,2002;Kao et al,2005;Szeligaet al,2008.
[207]Liu and Rice,2005,2009;Rubin,2008;Perfettini and Ampuero,2008.
[208]Shelly et al,2006.
[209]Wallace and Beavan,2006;Larson et al,2007;Delahaye et al,2009;Brudzinski et al,2010;Vergnolle et al,2010.
[210]Linde et al,1996;Murray and Segall,2005;Lohman and McGuire,2007;Wei et al,2009.
[211]Nadeau and Dolenc,2005;Gomberg et al,2008.
[212]Shelly,2010.
[213]例如,卡斯凯迪亚俯冲带上的缓慢滑动事件显示了14个月的周期性,Mazzotti和Ad-ams(2004)曾推测:“在2周的缓慢滑动事件期间,大地震的周概率比这一年其他任意一周高30到100倍.”
[214]G可在0到1/Ppoisson间变化,G>1对应概率增益,G<1对应概率损失(Aki1981).
[215]Jordan and Jones,2010.
[216]Fujiwara et al,2006.
[217]Cornell and Winterstein,1988.
[218]Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,2003.
[219]Parsons and Geist,2009.
[220]Zielke et al,2010;Grant Ludwig et al,2010.
[221]Page et al,2011.
[222]Daeron et al,2007.
[223]Hubert-Ferrari et al,2005.
[224]Pace et al,2006.
[225]由E.Faccioli和W.Marzocchi领导的S2IN-GV/DPC项目已研制了若干替代模型.其中一个基于具有独立特征地震的断层,其中第二个利用库仑破裂函数引入断层相互作用,其中第三个过滤了空间中复发断层并加上不含时间的背景地震活动性.
[226]Reasenberg and Jones,1989,1994.
[227]Gerstenberger et al,2005,2007;日常预报可见http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthqua-kes/step/.
[228]Holliday et al,2008.
[229]Helmstetter et al,2006.
[230]Console et al,2010.
[231]Unpublished calculation by W.Marzocchi(2009).
[232]McGuire et al,2005.
[233]Agnew and Jones,1991;Michael and Jones,1998.
[234]Michael,2011.
[235]Marzocchi and Zhuang,2011.
[236]Parsons et al,2000.
[237]Stein et al,2006;Bozkurt et al,2007.
[238]Toda et al,2008.
[239]Parsons,2002.
[240]Huc and Main,2003.
[241]Woessner et al,2011.
[242]Rhoades and Evison,2004.
[243]Rhoades and Evison,2005.
[244]Rhoades and Gerstenberger,2009.
[245]Marzocchi and Lombardi,2008.
[246]Lombardi and Marzocchi,2009.
[247]在最完整的意义上讲,预报质量是由包含在预报和观测的联合概率分布中的统计特征的总体来表征的.这一表征方法相应于方法学中被称为用于验证的分布定向方法(Murphy and Winkler,1987).
[248]Field,2007,也可参见Seismol.Res.Lett.78,no.1,2007.上的论文.
[249]Schorlemmer et al,2007.
[250]Schorlemmer et al,2010.
[251]Zechar et al,2010.
[252]当前正在地震可预测性研究合作实验室接受检验的预报模型包括不含时间的模型和定期(如1天、3个月和1年)更新的含时间的模型,见http://www.cseptesting.org/.
[253]检验的前瞻性质受到一定限制:由于形成检验所用地震目录需要时间,地震可预测性研究合作实验室实验滞后的时间从1个月左右直至1年以上.在意大利产出地震可预测性研究合作实验室检验所用国家地球物理与火山学研究所目录约迟滞8个月.
[254]Marzocchi et al,2010.
[255]地震可预测性研究合作实验室的网站是ht-tp://eu.cseptesting.org/.
[256]Graves et al,2010.
[257]National Research Council Committee on Es-timating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts(2006).
[258]关于如何将预报应用于减轻地震灾害风险,Vere-Jones(1995)认为:“这种考虑加强了这样的观点:从事地震预报的科学家的主要任务应当是发展理论和模型,使这样的条件概率可从以往的信息明确计算得到;另一方面,警报战略的研究,包括设置恰当的阈值水平和警报后应采取的行动,不应由科学家承担,而应由包括起提供咨询作用的科学家(当然包括统计学家)代表相应的地方和国家当局的一个小组负责.”
[259]作为项目《Progetto per la rilevazione della vulnerabilitàdel patrimonio edilizio a rischio sismico e di formazione di tecnici per l'attivitàdi prevenzione sismica connessa alle politiche di mitigazione del rischio sismico nelle regioni dell'Italia meridionale》的一部分,意大利关于地震易损性的一系列专门研究由国家抗震小组(GNDT)于1999~2001年出版(如GNDT,1999),见http://gndt.ingv.it/Pubblicazioni/Censimenti.htm.
[260]Patéand Shah,1979;Allen,1980;Ander-son,1981;Jones,1996.
[261]van Stiphout et al,2010.
[262]Zhang,1988,1990;Chen et al,1992.
[263]Fu and Liu,1956;Chen,1986,2001.
[264]Chen et al,2002.
[265]Seismological Committee of Chinese Academy of Sciences,1956;Li,1957;Lee,1960;Gu,1983a,b;State Seismological Bureau,1981;Xie and Cai,1987;Hu,1990;Min,1995;State Seismological Bureau,1996;Wang et al,1999.
[266]National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China,2008.
[267]Li,1986;Quan,1988;Wang et al,2006.
[268]Chen and Wang,2010.
[269]Papazachos and Papazachou,1997;Papado-poulos et al,2000b.
[270]NOAGI网站首页为http://www.gein.noa.gr/.
[271]希腊地震危险性区划图可见http://www.oasp.gr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=47%3A2010-02-05-11-20-24&catid.
[272]Papadopoulos and Kijko,1991.
[273]Lyubushin et al,2002.
[274]Papaioannou and Papazachos,2000.
[275]Tsapanos,2008.
[276]Wyss and Baer,1981;Papazachos and Comninakis,1982;Papadopoulos,1988;Latoussakis and Stavrakakis,1992;Papado-poulos et al,2000a;Papazachos and Pa-pazachos,2001;Papadopoulos et al,2006.
[277]Varotsos and Alexopoulos,1984;Varotsos et al,1986,1993.
[278]对VAN方法和结果的批评性讨论见Mu-largia and Gasperini,1992;Geller,1996和Lighthill,1996.最近的讨论见Papadopou-los,2010;Uyeda and Kamogawa,2010.
[279]Lagios et al,2007.
[280]Petrini et al,1981.
[281]Slejko et al,1998.
[282]Stucchi et al,2004,见http://zonesis-miche.mi.ingv.it/documenti/rapporto_con-clusivo.pdf(意大利语).
[283]Valensise and Pantosti,2001;Meletti et al,2008.
[284]详见日本气象厅网站,http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html.
[285]详见地震调查研究推进本部网站,http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index-e.html.
[286]Ishibashi,1977,1981.
[287]检测板块边界上MW6缓慢滑动的实时应变台阵的能力已在东海地区得到证明(Koba-yashi et al,2006).但日本气象厅并未宣称预测将会总是成功,因为可检测的预滑并未被证明是诊断性前兆.观测和理论的最新进展表明,板块边界上存在完全闭锁区和稳定滑动区之间的中间区域.
[288]规程要点可见日本气象厅网站,http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake_tokai/.
[289]当(1)观测到小的异常不足以解释为直接与东海地震发生有关,或(2)观测到一些异常但解释为与东海地震发生无关(即标志没有该地震危险)时发布地震报告.当观测到一些异常并被解释为东海地震发生概率增加的标志时发布地震忠告.当观测到异常并被解释为东海地震即将发生的标志时发布地震警报.
[290]地震调查研究推进本部和日本气象厅最近宣布,他们将预报开始于2011年4月的伊豆半岛东部的地震群活动.该区域1978年以来反复发生地震群,强化的观测研究揭示这些地震活动是由岩浆作为岩脉注入地壳产生的.岩脉注入可由部署在震源区的应变仪检测和评估.对以往活动的统计研究表明,初始阶段的应变变化与随后的震群活动线性相关.最初24小时的应变量可用于预报最大事件和地震总数,而由检测到的岩浆注入事件数可预报地震群活动的持续时间.该预报规程的科学背景参见Morita et al,2006.
[291]Hirata,2004.
[292]Shimazaki et al,2001,详见地震调查研究推进本部网站,http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index-e.html.
[293]2005年西福冈地震(MW6.6)、2007年能登半岛地震(MW6.7)和2007年新澙县中越近海地震(MW6.6)均发生在缺少充分调查的日本海近海岸地区(Toda and Awata,2008).岩手—宫城地震(MW6.9)发生在已评估的断层之南,该处几乎没有发现地表断层迹线的证据(Ohta et al,2008).
[294]地震研究委员会,《日本国家地震危险性图(2005)》,地震调查研究推进本部发布于2005年3月23日的报告,158页,登陆ht-tp://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index-e.html可见其英译本;Fujiwara et al(2006).
[295]日文危险性图的官方版本由国家地球科学与防灾研究所在日本地震危险性信息站(J-SHIS)http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/提供,该网站包含与英文版的链接.概率地震危险性图给出了大于某一固定的日本气象厅地震烈度的30年超越概率,以及固定超越概率不同复发周期下的日本气象厅烈度.地震动场景图给出了特定震源的日本气象厅烈度.
[296]Obara et al,2005.
[297]Nanjo et al,2010.
[298]Kamigaichi et al,2009.
[299]日本气象厅地震预警规程的详细资料公布在网站上,http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew.html.
[300]Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov,1987;Ko-ssobokov et al,1990;Keilis-Borok et al,1990;Kossobokov et al,1999b;Kossobo-kov and Soloviev,2008.
[301]Fedotov,1965,1968.
[302]Fedotov et al,2008.
[303]Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov,1987;Ko-ssobokov et al,1990;Sobolev et al,1991;Sobolev,2001.
[304]Fedotov et al,1999;Sobolev,2008.
[305]Sobolev et al,1990.
[306]项目由美国地质调查局地震危险性项目组管理,可见http://earthquake.usgs.gov/haz-ards/.
[307]Building Seismic Safety Council,2003.
[308]Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1988,1990,1995,2003,2007.
[309]Wesson et al,2007,http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1043/.
[310]全国地震预测评估委员会修订版章程于2006年1月23日由美国地质调查局代局长P.Patrick Leahy签发.美国总务管理局(GSA)此后简化了对联邦咨询委员会章程的要求,因此,由美国地质调查局局长M.McNutt签发的全国地震预测评估委员会章程2010年版比本报告正文中概述的2006年版更简洁(因而信息也更少).
[311]Jones et al(1991),南圣安德烈斯工作组报告中的概率阈值采用根据原先Bakun等(1987)为加州帕克菲尔德地区设置的值.
[312]在南圣安德烈斯工作组报告前,1980年代曾发布过几次A级警告,2次在帕克菲尔德地区和2次在埃尔斯曼湖地区发生M5地震后(Harris,1998,见http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1550/pp1550b/pp1550b.pdf).
[313]加州地震预测评估委员会的方法是以D.Agnew和L.M.Jones(1991)的公式为基础,最近的综述可见Michael(2011).
[314]Bonanno et al,2007;Magsino,2009.
[315]Mileti et al,1981;Mileti and Darlington,1997;Lindell et al,2009.
[316]这些结果和建议与委员会在2009年10月2日所发布的相同(见Jordan et al,2009).
[317]意大利的地震活动由位于罗马的国家地球物理学与火山学研究所的国家地震中心监测,公众可在CNT网站http://cnt.rm.ingv.it获取资料.
[318]INGV期刊(2009年11月),http://bolletti-nosismico.rm.ingv.it/2009_04_01/2009_04_01.lst.
[319]Chiarabba et al,2009;Anzidei et al,2009;Atzori et al,2009.
[320]EMERGEO Working Group,2010.
[321]Boschi et al,2000.
[322]Galadini and Galli,2000.
[323]D'Agostino et al,2008.
[324]Roberts and Michetti,2004.
[325]Bagnaia et al,1992.
[326]Papadopoulos et al,2010.
[327]Serpelloni et al,2005.