摘要
ObjectiveWe discuss the role of diversification on dependency and security of energy supply. A system dynamics model with especial focus on the role of renewable energy resources (as a portfolio) on Finland鈥檚 energy dependency is developed. The purpose is also to cover a part of research gap exists in the system dynamics modeling of energy security investigations.MethodsA causal loops diagram and a system dynamics model evaluate Finnish scenarios of renewable energy policies. The analysis describes the relationship between dynamic factors such as RE encouragement packages, dependency, and energy demand.ResultsA causal loops diagram and a system dynamics model evaluate three different Finnish scenarios of renewable energy policies by 2020.ConclusionAnalysis shows that despite 7% electricity/heat consumption growth by 2020 in Finland, dependency on imported sources will decrease between 1% and 7% depend on the defined scenarios.Practice ImplicationsThe proposed model not only helps decision makers to test their scenarios related to renewable energy polices, it can be implemented by other countries.