摘要
Using system analysis theory and methods, a dynamic model of a water resource supply and demand system was built to simulate trends in the supply and demand of water in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (Chang-Zhu-Tan) urban agglomeration for the period 2012 to 2030. Four scenarios were examined; namely, a traditional development model, an economic development model, a water-saving model, and a coordinated development model. (i) The problem of balancing water resource supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with a growing population and a rapidly developing economy. (ii) By 2030, water demand is set to reach a total of 105.1 × 108 m3, with a water supply of 5.4 × 108 m3. A coordinated development model for water resource supply could meet the growing demands of socio-economic development, and generate huge comprehensive benefits. This will be the best solution for the development and utilization of a water resource supply and demand system in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. (iii) We should accelerate the construction of water conservation projects, strengthen the management of water conservation, optimize economic structures, enhance our awareness of the importance of protecting water resources, hasten the recycling of waste water and environmental improvement, and promote utilization efficiency, and support the capabilities of water resources to meet our expectations. Keywords water resource supply and demand system analog simulation optimization decision-making system dynamics Chang-Zhu-Tan (Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan) urban agglomeration