摘要
The underexplored deep Argentine continental margin may be a prospective area for hydrocarbon resources. This study quantifies the degree of certainty about a fundamental part in a petroleum system, the presence of source rocks. Probability theory and, in particular, Bayesian networks provide powerful assessment tools based on incomplete knowledge. However, they should not be applied uncritically in cases where necessary assumptions like independence are not fulfilled or prior probabilities are not known. We discuss the difference between a low probability and the ignorance of a hypothesis, and apply an alternative method to the assessment of source rock presence. The results of this probabilistic argumentation system coincide with the intuitive judgement, stating that there is a quantifiable evidence for a source rock, but no evidence against it.