摘要
The Energiewende in Germany pertains to the gradual transformation of the German energy supply system. Virtual power plants have become essential components of the new intelligent energy infrastructure. They aggregate different types of distributed generation units, active consumers and storage technologies in order to integrate these profit-maximising and system-stabilising in the energy market. The assessment of the economic potentials of virtual power plants requires a scenario-based and model-supported analysis. In this relation, future conditions of the framework are simulated using the scenario methodology. Starting from the year 2015, three scenarios have been identified that will most likely illustrate alternative energy developments in Germany by 2030. Based on these scenarios, the additional revenue potentials of the modeled virtual power plant are identified when compared to a constant operation mode of distributed energy resources. According to the model results, additional revenues can be achieved in all scenarios in 2030. Nevertheless, the amount und composition vary depending on technology-specific subsidies, temporary nature of power demand and price structures in the energy market. Fluctuating renewable energies are expected to benefit from the market-oriented operation mode in the virtual power plant, especially through the EEG direct marketing. The selective and regulated shutdown of renewable energies in times of negative electricity prices may further lead to cost savings. The utilization of temporary price fluctuations in the spot market and the demand-oriented provision of control power offer high additional revenue potentials for flexible controllable technologies such as battery storage, biomethane as well as combined heat and power units. Finally, the determination of the long-term profitability of a virtual power plant still requires a full-scale cost-effectiveness analysis. For this holistic approach, the model results provide a reliable scientific basis.