摘要
The regional research on land use/land cover change (LUCC) can provide the scientific basis for the optimization utilization of land resources and regional sustainable development. The origin-stream zone of Tarim River is a special arid zone for its water resource is abundant relatively in south Xinjiang Autonomy Region. Along with the construction of petroleum exploit base and the speedy urbanization, population and the demand of water usage in the zone have been increased rapidly in the decade. Based on Integrated Methodology of GIS and Statistic data, a series of models had been adopted to analyze the changes (from 1994 to 2005) of population, land use patterns and water resource. This research aims to study the interactions between population growth and changes in water and land resources in Original-stream Zone of Tarim River over the past 10 years. We take the watershed of Akesu River, which is the main Original-Stream of Tarim River, as our study area and it includes five counties in Akesu prefecture. The time series data on population changes and economic development, water volume and quality, land use and land cover changes are collected to study the relationship between these factors in this zone. Adopting a statistical analysis and systems dynamics approach, we quantify the effect of population growth on water use and land degradation.