摘要
This study evaluates the climate change impacts on water availability over Asian monsoon region. The water availability is analyzed based on the changes in green water and blue water for the 3 future periods (2020s: 2010~2039, 2050s: 2040~2069, and 2080s: 2070~2099) relative to the reference period (1977~2006) at each climate zone classified by Koppen climate classification method. To analyze the water availability, a hydrological model was constructed by using the observed climate, hydrological and topographical data (DEM, soil and land use). The water availability was evaluated in terms of green and blue water in all climate zones for the reference period using the observed data and for the future periods using climate change scenarios. The results show that the annual average green water is projected to increase approximately 2.6?~-4.6?% for the future period (2080s) in all climate zones and the annual average blue water will increase approximately 9.1?~-6.7?% in most of the climate zones except for some Cs and Ds climate zones. However, the monthly average blue water in winter dry zones i.e., Aw, Cw and Cf, will decrease about 2.8?~-8.9?% during December to April for 2080s and those at summer dry zones i.e., Cs and Ds, will decrease about 7.1?~-0.8?% during March to September for 2080s. On the other hand, the blue water in Am, Aw, Cw, Cf and Dw zones will greatly increase during summer season. These results reveal that the water availability in most of the Asian monsoon region is expected to increase in the future. However, the necessity to manage the water resources in arid regions and to control flood risks in wet regions is inevitable.