大气环流系统组合性异常与极端天气气候事件发生
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摘要
根据2008年1月我国南方发生的持续严重雨雪冰冻灾害、1998年长江流域的特大洪涝灾害和2009/2010年冬季云南的极端干旱灾害的分析结果,再次强调指出,对于一些小概率的极端天气气候事件的发生,大气环流系统的组合性异常起着极其重要的作用。对于2008年的严重雨雪冰冻灾害的发生,多个大气环流系统的组合性异常包括:乌拉尔山阻塞高压和贝加尔湖-巴尔喀什湖的横槽,这为不断有冷空气从西路向南爆发提供了条件;东亚和日本地区的高度正异常使得北方冷空气的势力不是很强,适于锋面在我国南岭及其以北地区较长时间停留,为持续降水确立了背景;西太平洋副高偏强和偏西也对冷空气的向南推进起了阻挡作用;印-缅槽的持续偏强和西太平洋副高的偏强共同使暖湿空气源源不断地输送到华南地区,有利持续降水的发生,为冰冻造成了条件。对于1998年夏季长江流域的特大洪涝的发生,多个环流系统的异常包括:夏季西南季风涌的活动,西太平洋副热带高压活动,北方冷空气活动和青藏高原对流系统东传的共同作用。对于2009/2010年冬季云南的极端干旱灾害的发生,多个环流系统的异常包括:对流层高层中东地区副热带西风急流减弱,影响Rossby波的活动,不利于青藏高原-孟加拉湾槽的建立;西太平洋副热带高压偏强、位置略为偏南,对低层水汽输入云南起到抑制作用;NAO的负异常所导致的遥相关波列异常,使得东亚北方冷空气活动偏东,不易到达云南地区,还使得南支槽偏弱,暖湿气流也不易到达云南地区。ENSO虽然对中国天气气候变化有相当重要的影响,但并非每次异常天气气候事件的发生都是它的直接影响。对于ENSO影响必须具体分析,才能决定它在异常事件、特别是极端天气气候事件中的确切作用。
Based on the analyses of lasting disaster w eather of freezing rain and snow over South China during the January of 2008,the catastrophic flood over the Changjiang River basin during the summer of 1998 and the severe drought in Yunnan Province during the w inter of 2009/2010,this paper emphasizes again that the combinational anomalies of atmospheric circulation system play important roles to the little probabilistic extreme w eather and climate events.For the lasting disaster w eather of freezing rain and snow in 2008,the combinational multiple circulation anomalies are clear,including Ural blocking high and a trough from Lake Baikal to Lake Balkhash that offer condition for continual cold air pouring southw ard from the w est passage,and positive geopotential height anomalies over the eastern Asia and Japan that w eaken the force of cold air from the north.Thus the front stays longer time over the South M ountain and its north area,w hich establishes background for continuous raining.M eanw hile,the Northw est Pacific subtropical high extents w estw ard and its intensity also enhances,baring the cold air. The persistent strong Indian-M yanmar Trough and Northw est Pacific subtropical high transport w arm and w et air to South China,and it is favorable to the occurrence of continuous rain.Persistent cold air activity and precipitation induce persistent low temperature,w hich creates conditions for the freezing w eather. For the catastrophic flood over the Changjiang River basin in 1998,the combinational multiple circulation anomalies include the southw est monsoon surge,the Northw est Pacific subtropical high and cold air activities in summer,combined w ith the eastw ard propagation of convective system of the Tibetan Plateau.For the severe drought in Yunnan Province during the w inter of 2009/2010,the combinational multiple circulation anomalies include that the M iddle East subtropical jet at upper troposphere w eakens,w hich influences Rossby w ave and is unfavorable to the formation of the Tibetan Plateau-Bay of Bengal Trough; The Northw est Pacific subtropical high intensifies and shifts slightly southw ard,w hich inhibits the low er-level w ater vapor transmission into Yunnan; Teleconnection w ave train anomaly caused by negative anomaly of NAO makes the cold air activity in the northeast of East Asia locate to the east and be difficult to reach the Yunnan region.It also makes the southern branch trough w eak,and the w arm and w et air could hardly reach to the Yunnan region.Generally the ENSO has a very important impact on w eather and climate variations in China,but the influence is not same in every time and every region.The specific impact of ENSO must be analyzed case by case in order to determine its exact role in anomalous events,especially extreme w eather and climate events.
Based on the analyses of lasting disaster w eather of freezing rain and snow over South China during the January of 2008,the catastrophic flood over the Changjiang River basin during the summer of 1998 and the severe drought in Yunnan Province during the w inter of 2009/2010,this paper emphasizes again that the combinational anomalies of atmospheric circulation system play important roles to the little probabilistic extreme w eather and climate events.For the lasting disaster w eather of freezing rain and snow in 2008,the combinational multiple circulation anomalies are clear,including Ural blocking high and a trough from Lake Baikal to Lake Balkhash that offer condition for continual cold air pouring southw ard from the w est passage,and positive geopotential height anomalies over the eastern Asia and Japan that w eaken the force of cold air from the north.Thus the front stays longer time over the South M ountain and its north area,w hich establishes background for continuous raining.M eanw hile,the Northw est Pacific subtropical high extents w estw ard and its intensity also enhances,baring the cold air. The persistent strong Indian-M yanmar Trough and Northw est Pacific subtropical high transport w arm and w et air to South China,and it is favorable to the occurrence of continuous rain.Persistent cold air activity and precipitation induce persistent low temperature,w hich creates conditions for the freezing w eather. For the catastrophic flood over the Changjiang River basin in 1998,the combinational multiple circulation anomalies include the southw est monsoon surge,the Northw est Pacific subtropical high and cold air activities in summer,combined w ith the eastw ard propagation of convective system of the Tibetan Plateau.For the severe drought in Yunnan Province during the w inter of 2009/2010,the combinational multiple circulation anomalies include that the M iddle East subtropical jet at upper troposphere w eakens,w hich influences Rossby w ave and is unfavorable to the formation of the Tibetan Plateau-Bay of Bengal Trough; The Northw est Pacific subtropical high intensifies and shifts slightly southw ard,w hich inhibits the low er-level w ater vapor transmission into Yunnan; Teleconnection w ave train anomaly caused by negative anomaly of NAO makes the cold air activity in the northeast of East Asia locate to the east and be difficult to reach the Yunnan region.It also makes the southern branch trough w eak,and the w arm and w et air could hardly reach to the Yunnan region.Generally the ENSO has a very important impact on w eather and climate variations in China,but the influence is not same in every time and every region.The specific impact of ENSO must be analyzed case by case in order to determine its exact role in anomalous events,especially extreme w eather and climate events.
引文
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高守亭,孙建华,崔晓鹏,等,2008.暴雨中尺度系统数值模拟与动力诊断研究[J].大气科学,32(4):854-866.Gao S T,Sun J H,Cui X P,et al.,2008.Numerical simulation and dynamic analysis of mesoscale torrential rain systems[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(4):854-866.(in Chinese).
Huang R H,Wu Y F,1989.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J].Adv Atmos Sci,6(1):21-32.
黄荣辉,徐予红,王鹏飞,等,1998.1998年夏长江流域特大洪涝特征及其成因探讨[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):13-26.Huang R H,Xu Y H,Wang P F,et al.,1998.The features of the catastrophic flood over the Changjiang River Basin during the summer of 1998 and cause exploration[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):13-26.(in Chinese).
黄荣辉,李崇银,王绍武,2003.我国旱涝重大气候灾害及其形成机理研究[M].北京:气象出版社:483.Huang R H,Li C Y,Wang S W,2003.Research on sever climate disasters of drought and floods and formation mechanism of these disasters[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:483.(in Chinese).
金祖辉,陶诗言,1999.ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究[J].大气科学,23(6):663-672.Jin Z H,Tao S Y,1999.A study on the relationships between ENSO cycle and rainfalls during summer and winter in eastern China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,23(6):663-672.(in Chinese).
李崇银,1985.厄尔尼诺与西太平洋台风活动[J].科学通报,30(14):1087-1089.Li C Y,1985.El Niňo and typhoon action over the western Pacific[J].Chin Sci Bull,30(14):1087-1089.(in Chinese).
李崇银,杨辉,顾薇,等,2008.中国南方雨雪冰冻异常天气原因的分析[J].气候与环境研究,13(2):113-122.Li C Y,Yang H,Gu W,et al.,2008.Cause of severe weather with cold air,freezing rain and snow over south China in january 2008[J].Climatic Environ Res,13(2):113-122.(in Chinese).
李崇银,黄荣辉,丑纪范,等,2009.我国重大高影响天气气候灾害及对策研究[M].北京:气象出版社:187.Li C Y,Huang R H,Chou J F,et al.,2009.Research on sever great impact weather/climate disasters in China and countermeasure[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:187.(in Chinese).
李崇银,刘会荣,宋洁,2013.2009/2010年冬季云南干旱的进一步研究:前期土壤湿度影响的数值模拟[J].气候与环境研究,18(5):551-561.Li C Y,Liu H R,Song J,2013.Further study of Yunnan drought during the 2009/2010 winter:numerical simulation of impact of antecedent soil moisture[J].Climatic Environ Res,18(5):551-561.(in Chinese).
林朝晖,李旭,赵彦,等,1998.中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统的改进及其对1998年全国汛期旱涝形势的预测[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):52-61.Lin Z H,Li X,Zhao Y,et al.,1998.An improved short-term climate prediction system and its application to the extraseasonal prediction of rainfall anomaly in China for 1998[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):52-61.(in Chinese).
宋洁,杨辉,李崇银,2011.2009/2010年冬季云南严重干旱原因的进一步分析[J].大气科学,35(6):1009-1019.Song J,Yang H,Li C Y,2011.A further study of causes of the severe drought in Yunnan Province during the 2009/2010 winter[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,35(6):1009-1019.(in Chinese).
Song J,Li C Y,Zhou W,2014.High and low latitude types of the downstream influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].Clim Dyn,42(3/4):1097-1111.
孙建华,赵思雄,2003.1998年夏季长江流域梅雨期环流演变的特殊性探讨[J].气候与环境研究,8(3):291-306.Sun J H,Zhao S X,2003.A study of special circulation during Meiyu Season of the Yangtze River Basin in 1998[J].Climatic Environ Res,8(3):291-306.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,张庆云,张顺利,1998.1998年长江流域洪涝灾害的气候背景和大尺度环流条件[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):3-12.Tao S Y,Zhang Q Y,Zhang S L,1998.The great floods in the Changjiang River Valley in 1998[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):3-12.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,张庆云,张顺利,2001.夏季北太平洋副热带高压系统的活动[J].气象学报,59(6):747-758.Tao S Y,Zhang Q Y,Zhang S L,2001.An observational study on the behavior of the Subtropical High over the West Pacific in summer[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,59(6):747-758.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,赵思雄,张庆云,等,2008.2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪冰冻过程的研究[J].气候与环境研究,13(4):337-567.Tao S Y,Zhao S X,Zhang Q Y,2008.Studies on the progress of low temperature,freezing rain and snow in January 2008 over southern China[J].Climatic Environ Res,13(4):337-567.(in Chinese).
颜宏,1998.1998中国特大洪涝灾害的天气气候特点、成因分析及气象预报服务[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):323-334.Yan H,1998.Analysis on the weather and climate features and causes of the extraordinary flood disaster over China in 1998 and the relevant meteorological prediction services[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):323-334.(in Chinese).
杨辉,宋洁,晏红明,等,2012.2009/2010年冬季云南严重干旱的原因分析[J].气候与环境研究,17(3):315-326.Yang H,Song J,Yan H M,et al.,2012.Cause of the severe drought in Yunnan Province during winter of 2009 to 2010[J].Climatic Environ Res,17(3):315-326.(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,2003.夏季西太平洋副热带高压异常时的东亚大气环流特征[J].大气科学,27(3):369-380.Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,2003.The anomalous subtropical anticyclone in western Pacific and their association with circulation over East Asia during summer[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(3):315-326.(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,张顺利,2003.夏季长江流域暴雨洪涝灾害的天气气候条件[J].大气科学,27(6):1018-1030.Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,Zhang S L,2003.The persistent heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley and its associations with the circulations over East Asian during summer[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(6):1018-1030.(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,彭京备,2008.我国灾害性天气气候事件成因机理的研究进展[J].大气科学,32(4):815-825.Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,Peng J B,2008.The studies of meteorological disasters over China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(4):815-825.(in Chinese).
张顺利,陶诗言,张庆云,等,2002.长江中下游致洪暴雨的多尺度条件[J].科学通报,47(6):467-473.Zhang S L,Tao S Y,Zhang Q Y,et al.,2002.Multi-scale conditions for causing storm rainfall over the Changjing River Valley[J].Chin Sci Bull,47(6):467-473.(in Chinese).
赵思雄,孙建华,陈红,等,1998.1998年7月长江流域特大洪水期间暴雨特征的分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):81-94.Zhao S X,Sun J H,Chen H,1998.Study of heavy rainfall in the Changjiang River during July 1998[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):81-94.(in Chinese).
周广庆,李旭,曾庆存,1998.一个可供ENSO预测的海气耦合环流模式及1997/1998ENSO的预测[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):349-357.Zhou G Q,Li X,Zeng Q C,et al.,1998.A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model for ENSO prediction and 1997/1998 ENSO forecast[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):349-357.(in Chinese).
巢纪平,李崇银,陈英仪,等,2003.ENSO循环机理和预测研究[M].北京:气象出版社:386.Chao J P,Li C Y,Chen Y Y,2003.The research on mechanism and prediction of the ENSO cycle[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:386.(in Chinese).
高守亭,孙建华,崔晓鹏,等,2008.暴雨中尺度系统数值模拟与动力诊断研究[J].大气科学,32(4):854-866.Gao S T,Sun J H,Cui X P,et al.,2008.Numerical simulation and dynamic analysis of mesoscale torrential rain systems[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(4):854-866.(in Chinese).
Huang R H,Wu Y F,1989.The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism[J].Adv Atmos Sci,6(1):21-32.
黄荣辉,徐予红,王鹏飞,等,1998.1998年夏长江流域特大洪涝特征及其成因探讨[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):13-26.Huang R H,Xu Y H,Wang P F,et al.,1998.The features of the catastrophic flood over the Changjiang River Basin during the summer of 1998 and cause exploration[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):13-26.(in Chinese).
黄荣辉,李崇银,王绍武,2003.我国旱涝重大气候灾害及其形成机理研究[M].北京:气象出版社:483.Huang R H,Li C Y,Wang S W,2003.Research on sever climate disasters of drought and floods and formation mechanism of these disasters[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:483.(in Chinese).
金祖辉,陶诗言,1999.ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究[J].大气科学,23(6):663-672.Jin Z H,Tao S Y,1999.A study on the relationships between ENSO cycle and rainfalls during summer and winter in eastern China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,23(6):663-672.(in Chinese).
李崇银,1985.厄尔尼诺与西太平洋台风活动[J].科学通报,30(14):1087-1089.Li C Y,1985.El Niňo and typhoon action over the western Pacific[J].Chin Sci Bull,30(14):1087-1089.(in Chinese).
李崇银,杨辉,顾薇,等,2008.中国南方雨雪冰冻异常天气原因的分析[J].气候与环境研究,13(2):113-122.Li C Y,Yang H,Gu W,et al.,2008.Cause of severe weather with cold air,freezing rain and snow over south China in january 2008[J].Climatic Environ Res,13(2):113-122.(in Chinese).
李崇银,黄荣辉,丑纪范,等,2009.我国重大高影响天气气候灾害及对策研究[M].北京:气象出版社:187.Li C Y,Huang R H,Chou J F,et al.,2009.Research on sever great impact weather/climate disasters in China and countermeasure[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press:187.(in Chinese).
李崇银,刘会荣,宋洁,2013.2009/2010年冬季云南干旱的进一步研究:前期土壤湿度影响的数值模拟[J].气候与环境研究,18(5):551-561.Li C Y,Liu H R,Song J,2013.Further study of Yunnan drought during the 2009/2010 winter:numerical simulation of impact of antecedent soil moisture[J].Climatic Environ Res,18(5):551-561.(in Chinese).
林朝晖,李旭,赵彦,等,1998.中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统的改进及其对1998年全国汛期旱涝形势的预测[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):52-61.Lin Z H,Li X,Zhao Y,et al.,1998.An improved short-term climate prediction system and its application to the extraseasonal prediction of rainfall anomaly in China for 1998[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):52-61.(in Chinese).
宋洁,杨辉,李崇银,2011.2009/2010年冬季云南严重干旱原因的进一步分析[J].大气科学,35(6):1009-1019.Song J,Yang H,Li C Y,2011.A further study of causes of the severe drought in Yunnan Province during the 2009/2010 winter[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,35(6):1009-1019.(in Chinese).
Song J,Li C Y,Zhou W,2014.High and low latitude types of the downstream influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].Clim Dyn,42(3/4):1097-1111.
孙建华,赵思雄,2003.1998年夏季长江流域梅雨期环流演变的特殊性探讨[J].气候与环境研究,8(3):291-306.Sun J H,Zhao S X,2003.A study of special circulation during Meiyu Season of the Yangtze River Basin in 1998[J].Climatic Environ Res,8(3):291-306.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,张庆云,张顺利,1998.1998年长江流域洪涝灾害的气候背景和大尺度环流条件[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):3-12.Tao S Y,Zhang Q Y,Zhang S L,1998.The great floods in the Changjiang River Valley in 1998[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):3-12.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,张庆云,张顺利,2001.夏季北太平洋副热带高压系统的活动[J].气象学报,59(6):747-758.Tao S Y,Zhang Q Y,Zhang S L,2001.An observational study on the behavior of the Subtropical High over the West Pacific in summer[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,59(6):747-758.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,赵思雄,张庆云,等,2008.2008年1月中国南方低温雨雪冰冻过程的研究[J].气候与环境研究,13(4):337-567.Tao S Y,Zhao S X,Zhang Q Y,2008.Studies on the progress of low temperature,freezing rain and snow in January 2008 over southern China[J].Climatic Environ Res,13(4):337-567.(in Chinese).
颜宏,1998.1998中国特大洪涝灾害的天气气候特点、成因分析及气象预报服务[J].气候与环境研究,3(4):323-334.Yan H,1998.Analysis on the weather and climate features and causes of the extraordinary flood disaster over China in 1998 and the relevant meteorological prediction services[J].Climatic Environ Res,3(4):323-334.(in Chinese).
杨辉,宋洁,晏红明,等,2012.2009/2010年冬季云南严重干旱的原因分析[J].气候与环境研究,17(3):315-326.Yang H,Song J,Yan H M,et al.,2012.Cause of the severe drought in Yunnan Province during winter of 2009 to 2010[J].Climatic Environ Res,17(3):315-326.(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,2003.夏季西太平洋副热带高压异常时的东亚大气环流特征[J].大气科学,27(3):369-380.Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,2003.The anomalous subtropical anticyclone in western Pacific and their association with circulation over East Asia during summer[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(3):315-326.(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,张顺利,2003.夏季长江流域暴雨洪涝灾害的天气气候条件[J].大气科学,27(6):1018-1030.Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,Zhang S L,2003.The persistent heavy rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley and its associations with the circulations over East Asian during summer[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(6):1018-1030.(in Chinese).
张庆云,陶诗言,彭京备,2008.我国灾害性天气气候事件成因机理的研究进展[J].大气科学,32(4):815-825.Zhang Q Y,Tao S Y,Peng J B,2008.The studies of meteorological disasters over China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(4):815-825.(in Chinese).
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