1962年～2015年堵河流域径流变化特征分析
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摘要
随着近年来堵河上潘口水电站、小漩水电站等梯级电站的建成与投入运行,流域径流特性发生了变化。为了掌握其内在变化规律,合理指导水电站的联合调度及为南水北调服务,依据堵河流域1962年～2015年的径流数据,运用数理统计理论对其年内、年际变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,径流的年内分配越来越不均匀;年平均径流序列有两个较短的周期,在突变年1985年前后呈先上升后下降的变化趋势且均不显著。
With the construction and operation of cascade hydropower stations such as Pankou and Xiaoxuan in Duhe River,the runoff characteristics of Duhe River Basin are changed. In order to understand the inherent change rules of runoff for guiding the joint operation of cascade hydropower stations and South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the annual and inter-annual characteristics of runoff are analyzed by mathematical statistics theory according to the data of runoff during the period of 1962-2015. The results show that,( a) the annual distribution of runoff is more and more non-uniform; and( b) the annual average runoff series has two short cycles with a mutation in the year of 1985,and tends to raise first and then decline before and after the mutation year,but two trends are not significant.
With the construction and operation of cascade hydropower stations such as Pankou and Xiaoxuan in Duhe River,the runoff characteristics of Duhe River Basin are changed. In order to understand the inherent change rules of runoff for guiding the joint operation of cascade hydropower stations and South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the annual and inter-annual characteristics of runoff are analyzed by mathematical statistics theory according to the data of runoff during the period of 1962-2015. The results show that,( a) the annual distribution of runoff is more and more non-uniform; and( b) the annual average runoff series has two short cycles with a mutation in the year of 1985,and tends to raise first and then decline before and after the mutation year,but two trends are not significant.
引文
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[3]白桦,穆兴民,高鹏,等.嘉陵江流域降水及径流演变规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(1):102-106.
[4]陈晨,罗军刚,解建仓,等.泾河流域近80a径流变化趋势及特征分析[J].人民黄河,2013,35(1):26-28.
[5]姚道强,任玮颖,徐茂玲.堵河流域致洪暴雨气候特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(18):9623-9626.
[6]牛利强.基于SWAT的气候与土地利用变化对径流量的影响研究[D].武汉:华中师范大学,2013.
[7]王忠华,贺德才,卢向飞.堵河流域水文特征分析[J].水文,2015,35(1):92-96.
[8]缪韧.水文学原理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2007.
[9]张钰,唐颖丰,韩克明,等.洮河流域径流年内分配变化规律分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(9):71-74.
[10]王渤权,王丽萍,李传刚,等.雅砻江流域径流年内分配特性研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2015(11):81-84.
[11]王文圣,金菊良,丁晶.随机水文学[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2016.
[12]严栋飞,解建仓,姜仁贵,等.汉江上游径流变化趋势及特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(6):13-19.
[13]雷红富,谢平,陈广才,等.水文序列变异点检验方法的性能比较分析[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(4):36-40.
[14]张建云,章四龙,王金星,等.近50年来中国六大流域年际径流变化趋势研究[J].水科学进展,2007,18(2):230-234.
[15]于延胜,陈兴伟. R/S和Mann-Kendall法综合分析水文时间序列未来的趋势特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2008(3):41-44.
[16]李保敏,张俊芝,吴旭,等.基于Mann-Kendall法和有序聚类法的径流变化特征研究[J].海河水利,2012(2):37-38.