效率与协调:土地市场助推城镇化发展的证据
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摘要
基于效率与协调性视角,构建了土地市场助推城镇化发展的作用机制分析框架,从土地市场效率与城镇化协调性的内涵出发,运用SE-DEA模型对我国285个地级及以上城市的土地市场效率进行测评,以城区人口与建成区面积的比值表征城镇化协调性,分析了二者的时空特征,并运用面板模型对二者关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:①2006—2014年我国城市土地市场效率与城镇化协调性均呈下滑态势,土地市场效率、城镇化协调性提升的城市占比仅分别为21.75%、9.12%,但区域差异逐渐缩小。长江—黄河中下游地区是低效率与低协调性城市的集中分布地。高效率城市散见于东北、陕甘宁、成渝等地,而高协调性城市则散布于胡焕庸线两侧及两广地区。②土地市场通过价格、竞争与流转机制以及吸纳、集聚与累积效应促进土地城镇化的精益发展与人口城镇化的相对快速提升,并触发城市经济与城镇化协调性之间的良性循环机制,实现城镇化的协调发展。③城市土地市场效率对城镇化协调发展具有促进作用,且兼具累积叠进的时间滞后效应,城市土地市场效率每提高1%,城镇化协调性将提升6.96个百分点。产业结构具有显著正向影响,而财政分权则呈负向影响,城镇化协调性的影响因素区域异质性特征明显。
Based on the efficiency and coordination, this paper constructs the mechanism analysis framework of how land market promotes urbanization development. The SE-DEA model is used to evaluate the land market efficiency of 285 prefecture-level cities and above. Taking the connotation of land market efficiency and urbanization coordination into consideration, the paper adopts ratio of urban population to built-up to represent coordination and explores the spatialtemporal differentiation. Finally, apply the panel model to carry out empirical test. Major conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) In 2006-2014, both of urbanization coordination and urban land market efficiency has been decreasing. The proportion of cities with improved efficiency and urbanization coordination were 21.75% and 9.12% respectively. But regional gap has been narrowed. Low efficiency or coordination cities are centrally distributed in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Yellow River while high efficiency cities are scattered in the northeast, such as Shaanxi,Gansu, Ningxia and Chengdu Chongqing. Simultaneously, high coordinated cities are distributed on both sides of Hu Hu's line, and Guangdong, Guangxi region. 2) The mechanism of price, competition and circulation in land market as well as the absorption, agglomeration and accumulation effect together promote the rapid development of land urbanization and population urbanization. This triggers the virtuous cycle mechanism between urban economy and urbanization and achieves coordinated development of urbanization. 3) The land market efficiency is positive-related to urbanization coordination, and shows cumulative stacking time lag effect in the meantime. For every 1% increasing in urban land market efficiency, the coordination of urbanization will be improved by 6.96%. Industrial structure has a positive effect,while fiscal decentralization is just the opposite. Besides, regional heterogeneity is found in influence factors of urbanization coordination.
Based on the efficiency and coordination, this paper constructs the mechanism analysis framework of how land market promotes urbanization development. The SE-DEA model is used to evaluate the land market efficiency of 285 prefecture-level cities and above. Taking the connotation of land market efficiency and urbanization coordination into consideration, the paper adopts ratio of urban population to built-up to represent coordination and explores the spatialtemporal differentiation. Finally, apply the panel model to carry out empirical test. Major conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) In 2006-2014, both of urbanization coordination and urban land market efficiency has been decreasing. The proportion of cities with improved efficiency and urbanization coordination were 21.75% and 9.12% respectively. But regional gap has been narrowed. Low efficiency or coordination cities are centrally distributed in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Yellow River while high efficiency cities are scattered in the northeast, such as Shaanxi,Gansu, Ningxia and Chengdu Chongqing. Simultaneously, high coordinated cities are distributed on both sides of Hu Hu's line, and Guangdong, Guangxi region. 2) The mechanism of price, competition and circulation in land market as well as the absorption, agglomeration and accumulation effect together promote the rapid development of land urbanization and population urbanization. This triggers the virtuous cycle mechanism between urban economy and urbanization and achieves coordinated development of urbanization. 3) The land market efficiency is positive-related to urbanization coordination, and shows cumulative stacking time lag effect in the meantime. For every 1% increasing in urban land market efficiency, the coordination of urbanization will be improved by 6.96%. Industrial structure has a positive effect,while fiscal decentralization is just the opposite. Besides, regional heterogeneity is found in influence factors of urbanization coordination.
引文
[1]龙花楼,曲艺,屠爽爽,等.城镇化背景下中国农区土地利用转型及其环境效应研究:进展与展望[J].地球科学进展,2018,33(5):455-463.
[2]陈坤秋,龙花楼.中国土地市场对城乡融合发展的影响[J].自然资源学报,2019,34(2):221-235.
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[4]王良健,李辉,石川.中国城市土地利用效率及其溢出效应与影响因素[J].地理学报,2015(11):1 788-1 799.
[5]梁流涛,赵庆良,陈聪.中国城市土地利用效率空间分异特征及优化路径分析——基于287个地级以上城市的实证研究[J].中国土地科学,2013(7):48-54.
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[9]郭付友,李诚固,陈才,等. 2003年以来东北地区人口城镇化与土地城镇化时空耦合特征[J].经济地理,2015,35(9):49-56.
[10]李子联.人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化之谜——来自中国省际面板数据的解释[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):94-101.
[11]张鹏岩,杨丹,李二玲,等.人口城镇化与土地城镇化的耦合协调关系——以中原经济区为例[J].经济地理,2017,37(8):145-154.
[12]潘爱民,刘友金.湘江流域人口城镇化与土地城镇化失调程度及特征研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):63-68.
[13]刘欢,邓宏兵,李小帆.长江经济带人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展时空差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(5):160-166.
[14]范进,赵定涛.土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调性测定及其影响因素[J].经济学家,2012(5):61-67.
[15] Erik Lichtenberg,Chengri Ding. Local Officials as Land Developers:Urban Spatial Expansion in China[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2009,66(1):57-64.
[16] Huang Zhiji,Wei Yehua Dennis,He Caifei,et al. Urban land expansion under economic transition in China:A multi-level modeling analysis[J]. Habitat International,2015,06:69-82.
[17]田传浩,李明坤.土地市场发育对劳动力非农就业的影响:基于浙、鄂、陕的经验[J].农业技术经济,2014(8):11-24.
[18]赵丹丹,胡业翠.土地集约利用与城市化相互作用的定量研究——以中国三大城市群为例[J].地理研究,2016(11):2 105-2 115.
[19]吴郁玲,袁佳宇,余名星,等.基于面板数据的中国城市土地市场发育与土地集约利用的动态关系研究[J].中国土地科学,2014(3):52-58.
[20]李强,陈宇琳,刘精明.中国城镇化“推进模式”研究[J].中国社会科学,2012(7):82-100,204-205.
[21] Liu Yongzheng,Alm James.“Province-Managing-County”fiscal reform,land expansion,and urban growth in China[J].Journal of Housing Economics,2016,33:82-100.
[22]中国金融40人论坛课题组.土地制度改革与新型城镇化[J].金融研究,2013(5):114-125.
[23]国务院发展研究中心和世界银行联合课题组.中国:推进高效、包容、可持续的城镇化[J].管理世界,2014(4):5-41.
[24]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[25] Andersen P,Petersen N C. A procedure for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis[J]. Management Science,1993,39(10):1 261-1 264.
[26]张曙霄,戴永安.异质性、财政分权与城市经济增长——基于面板分位数回归模型的研究[J].金融研究,2012(1):103-115.
[27]李建强,曲福田.土地市场化改革对建设用地集约利用影响研究[J].中国土地科学,2012,26(5):70-75.
[28]郑思齐,孙伟增,吴璟,等.“以地生财,以财养地”——中国特色城市建设投融资模式研究[J].经济研究,2014(8):14-27.
[29]龙花楼,刘彦随,邹健.中国东部沿海地区乡村发展类型及其乡村性评价[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):426-434.
[30]雷潇雨,龚六堂.基于土地出让的工业化与城镇化[J].管理世界,2014(9):29-41.
[31]陈坤秋,王良健,李宁慧.中国县域农村人口空心化——内涵、格局与机理[J].人口与经济,2018(1):28-37.
[32]宋健.中国流动人口的就业特征及其影响因素——与留守人口的比较研究[J].人口研究,2010,34(6):32-42.
[33]李郇,洪国志,黄亮雄.中国土地财政增长之谜——分税制改革、土地财政增长的策略性[J].经济学(季刊),2013,12(4):1 141-1 160.
[2]陈坤秋,龙花楼.中国土地市场对城乡融合发展的影响[J].自然资源学报,2019,34(2):221-235.
[3]曲福田,高艳梅,姜海.我国土地管理政策:理论命题与机制转变[J].管理世界,2005(4):40-47.
[4]王良健,李辉,石川.中国城市土地利用效率及其溢出效应与影响因素[J].地理学报,2015(11):1 788-1 799.
[5]梁流涛,赵庆良,陈聪.中国城市土地利用效率空间分异特征及优化路径分析——基于287个地级以上城市的实证研究[J].中国土地科学,2013(7):48-54.
[6]吴得文,毛汉英,张小雷,等.中国城市土地利用效率评价[J].地理学报,2011(8):1 111-1 121.
[7] Chen Yi,Chen Zhigang,Xu Guoliang,et al. Built-up land efficiency in urban China:Insights from the General Land Use Plan(2006-2020)[J]. Habitat International,2016,51:31-38.
[8]王良健,韩向华,李辉,等.土地供应绩效评估及影响因素的实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(10):121-128.
[9]郭付友,李诚固,陈才,等. 2003年以来东北地区人口城镇化与土地城镇化时空耦合特征[J].经济地理,2015,35(9):49-56.
[10]李子联.人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化之谜——来自中国省际面板数据的解释[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):94-101.
[11]张鹏岩,杨丹,李二玲,等.人口城镇化与土地城镇化的耦合协调关系——以中原经济区为例[J].经济地理,2017,37(8):145-154.
[12]潘爱民,刘友金.湘江流域人口城镇化与土地城镇化失调程度及特征研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):63-68.
[13]刘欢,邓宏兵,李小帆.长江经济带人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展时空差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(5):160-166.
[14]范进,赵定涛.土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调性测定及其影响因素[J].经济学家,2012(5):61-67.
[15] Erik Lichtenberg,Chengri Ding. Local Officials as Land Developers:Urban Spatial Expansion in China[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2009,66(1):57-64.
[16] Huang Zhiji,Wei Yehua Dennis,He Caifei,et al. Urban land expansion under economic transition in China:A multi-level modeling analysis[J]. Habitat International,2015,06:69-82.
[17]田传浩,李明坤.土地市场发育对劳动力非农就业的影响:基于浙、鄂、陕的经验[J].农业技术经济,2014(8):11-24.
[18]赵丹丹,胡业翠.土地集约利用与城市化相互作用的定量研究——以中国三大城市群为例[J].地理研究,2016(11):2 105-2 115.
[19]吴郁玲,袁佳宇,余名星,等.基于面板数据的中国城市土地市场发育与土地集约利用的动态关系研究[J].中国土地科学,2014(3):52-58.
[20]李强,陈宇琳,刘精明.中国城镇化“推进模式”研究[J].中国社会科学,2012(7):82-100,204-205.
[21] Liu Yongzheng,Alm James.“Province-Managing-County”fiscal reform,land expansion,and urban growth in China[J].Journal of Housing Economics,2016,33:82-100.
[22]中国金融40人论坛课题组.土地制度改革与新型城镇化[J].金融研究,2013(5):114-125.
[23]国务院发展研究中心和世界银行联合课题组.中国:推进高效、包容、可持续的城镇化[J].管理世界,2014(4):5-41.
[24]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[25] Andersen P,Petersen N C. A procedure for ranking efficient units in data envelopment analysis[J]. Management Science,1993,39(10):1 261-1 264.
[26]张曙霄,戴永安.异质性、财政分权与城市经济增长——基于面板分位数回归模型的研究[J].金融研究,2012(1):103-115.
[27]李建强,曲福田.土地市场化改革对建设用地集约利用影响研究[J].中国土地科学,2012,26(5):70-75.
[28]郑思齐,孙伟增,吴璟,等.“以地生财,以财养地”——中国特色城市建设投融资模式研究[J].经济研究,2014(8):14-27.
[29]龙花楼,刘彦随,邹健.中国东部沿海地区乡村发展类型及其乡村性评价[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):426-434.
[30]雷潇雨,龚六堂.基于土地出让的工业化与城镇化[J].管理世界,2014(9):29-41.
[31]陈坤秋,王良健,李宁慧.中国县域农村人口空心化——内涵、格局与机理[J].人口与经济,2018(1):28-37.
[32]宋健.中国流动人口的就业特征及其影响因素——与留守人口的比较研究[J].人口研究,2010,34(6):32-42.
[33]李郇,洪国志,黄亮雄.中国土地财政增长之谜——分税制改革、土地财政增长的策略性[J].经济学(季刊),2013,12(4):1 141-1 160.