我国财政动态平衡问题研究
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摘要
随着我国财政收入增速放缓,财政刚性支出规模不断扩张,财政的动态平衡问题日益突出。笔者基于我国1978—2017年的相关数据,利用协整检验并通过误差修正模型分析和评估我国财政尤其是地方财政的平衡状态、相关减税措施对财政动态平衡的影响以及中央补助对地方财政动态平衡的影响,旨在探寻调整我国财政平衡状态、实现财政动态平衡的路径。结果显示,我国财政整体保持较强动态平衡,而且其平衡路径倾向于增加财政收入,地方政府在支出方面有一定调整;相关减税措施对我国财政动态平衡影响较小;中央对地方的补助使地方财政的动态平衡状态有所增强。最后,本文认为,在目前财政增收压力加大的情况下,应采用收入和支出双向调整的平衡路径;严控债务规模,做好中长期偿债规划;实施扩张性货币政策和稳健的财政政策组合。
As the slowdown in the growth rate of fiscal revenue and the expansion of fiscal rigid expenditure,the fiscal dynamic balance becomes increasingly prominent. Based on the data from 1978 to 2017,this article uses cointegration test to analyze fiscal dynamic balance of Chinese government especially the regional government and uses the error correction model to study the adjustment path of fiscal dynamic balance. This article also evaluates the impact of tax reduction on fiscal dynamic balance,and the impact of central subsidies to regional government. It aims to explore the situation of fiscal dynamic balance and the adjustment path of China's fiscal dynamic balance. The results show that China's fiscal dynamic balance can be maintained,and its equilibrium path tends to increase fiscal revenue while regional government uses both revenue and expenditure adjustment; and the relevant tax reduction measures have few impact on China's fiscal sustainability; furthermore,subsidies from central government makes the dynamic balance of regional government turns relatively strong. Finally,in the background of increased fiscal revenue pressure,this article proposes that maintaining fiscal dynamic balance requires a two-way adjustment of fiscal revenue and expenditure,strict control of debt scale,reasonable debt repayment planning,as well as the combination of expansionary monetary policy and moderate fiscal policy.
As the slowdown in the growth rate of fiscal revenue and the expansion of fiscal rigid expenditure,the fiscal dynamic balance becomes increasingly prominent. Based on the data from 1978 to 2017,this article uses cointegration test to analyze fiscal dynamic balance of Chinese government especially the regional government and uses the error correction model to study the adjustment path of fiscal dynamic balance. This article also evaluates the impact of tax reduction on fiscal dynamic balance,and the impact of central subsidies to regional government. It aims to explore the situation of fiscal dynamic balance and the adjustment path of China's fiscal dynamic balance. The results show that China's fiscal dynamic balance can be maintained,and its equilibrium path tends to increase fiscal revenue while regional government uses both revenue and expenditure adjustment; and the relevant tax reduction measures have few impact on China's fiscal sustainability; furthermore,subsidies from central government makes the dynamic balance of regional government turns relatively strong. Finally,in the background of increased fiscal revenue pressure,this article proposes that maintaining fiscal dynamic balance requires a two-way adjustment of fiscal revenue and expenditure,strict control of debt scale,reasonable debt repayment planning,as well as the combination of expansionary monetary policy and moderate fiscal policy.
引文
[1]张鹤,陈超,史峰赫.平衡财政约束下最优国债规模与利率[J].财政研究,2017(4):48-61.
[2] Blanchard O J. Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators[Z/OL]. OECD Economics Department Working Papers,1990,No. 79,OECD Publishing. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1787/435618162862.
[3]邓子基.财政平衡观与积极财政政策的可持续性[J].当代财经,2001(11):22-25,80.
[4]刘骏,应益华.代际公平、财政可持续发展与政府会计改革[J].当代财经,2012(11):119-128.
[5] Haug A A. Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints:Evidence for the United States[J]. Journal of Business&Economic Statistic,1991,9(1):97-101.
[6] Quintos C E. Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts[J]. Journal of Business&Economic Statistic,1995,13(4):409-417.
[7] Arghyrou M G,Luintel K B. Government Solvency:Revisiting Some EMU Countries[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics. 2007,29(2):387-410.
[8] Fan J W,Arghyrou M G. UK Fiscal Policy Sustainability,1955—2006[J]. Manchester School(14636786),2013,81(6):961-991.
[9]王志刚.中国积极财政政策是否可持续[J].财贸经济,2012(9):53-61.
[10]邓晓兰,陈宝东.经济新常态下财政可持续发展问题与对策——兼论财政供给侧改革的政策着力点[J].中央财经大学学报,2017(1):3-10.
[11]金春雨,王伟强.新常态下我国持续扩大财政赤字是否合理?——基于时变协整模型的实证检验[J].经济问题探索,2016(11):7-15.
[12]杨子晖,赵永亮,汪林.财政收支关系与赤字的可持续性——基于门槛非对称性的实证研究[J].中国社会科学,2016(2):37-58,205.
[13] Hakkio C S,Rush M. Is the Budget Deficit “Too Large?”[J]. Economic Inquiry,1991,29(3):429-445.
[14] Phillips P B,Hansen B E. Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1)Processes[J],Review of Economic Studies,1990,57(1):99-125.
(1)信息来源:国家税务总局,http://www. chinatax. gov. cn//n810219/n810744/n2048831/n2050966/c3222331/content. html。
[2] Blanchard O J. Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators[Z/OL]. OECD Economics Department Working Papers,1990,No. 79,OECD Publishing. http://dx. doi. org/10. 1787/435618162862.
[3]邓子基.财政平衡观与积极财政政策的可持续性[J].当代财经,2001(11):22-25,80.
[4]刘骏,应益华.代际公平、财政可持续发展与政府会计改革[J].当代财经,2012(11):119-128.
[5] Haug A A. Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints:Evidence for the United States[J]. Journal of Business&Economic Statistic,1991,9(1):97-101.
[6] Quintos C E. Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts[J]. Journal of Business&Economic Statistic,1995,13(4):409-417.
[7] Arghyrou M G,Luintel K B. Government Solvency:Revisiting Some EMU Countries[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics. 2007,29(2):387-410.
[8] Fan J W,Arghyrou M G. UK Fiscal Policy Sustainability,1955—2006[J]. Manchester School(14636786),2013,81(6):961-991.
[9]王志刚.中国积极财政政策是否可持续[J].财贸经济,2012(9):53-61.
[10]邓晓兰,陈宝东.经济新常态下财政可持续发展问题与对策——兼论财政供给侧改革的政策着力点[J].中央财经大学学报,2017(1):3-10.
[11]金春雨,王伟强.新常态下我国持续扩大财政赤字是否合理?——基于时变协整模型的实证检验[J].经济问题探索,2016(11):7-15.
[12]杨子晖,赵永亮,汪林.财政收支关系与赤字的可持续性——基于门槛非对称性的实证研究[J].中国社会科学,2016(2):37-58,205.
[13] Hakkio C S,Rush M. Is the Budget Deficit “Too Large?”[J]. Economic Inquiry,1991,29(3):429-445.
[14] Phillips P B,Hansen B E. Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1)Processes[J],Review of Economic Studies,1990,57(1):99-125.
(1)信息来源:国家税务总局,http://www. chinatax. gov. cn//n810219/n810744/n2048831/n2050966/c3222331/content. html。