基于海气耦合模式的南中国海北部风暴潮模拟
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摘要
伴随台风产生的大风、暴雨、巨浪、风暴潮形成的台风灾害链对沿岸地区产生巨大影响,研究台风的形成和运动机理,减小风暴潮灾害,具有重要的科学价值和社会意义.台风影响期间,大气与海洋之间存在强烈的质量、能量交换,风场、流场、波浪场等物理场相互作用、相互影响.基于中尺度大气模式WRF和区域海洋模式ROMS,构建南中国海地区海气耦合模式,针对2012年台风"启德"进行数值模拟.通过观测数据对台风路径和强度进行验证,结果表明,建立的WRF-ROMS耦合模式在对台风"启德"影响下的南中国海风暴潮模拟中展现出较高的模拟精度.通过数值模式计算结果揭示了台风、风暴增水和风生流场的时空分布特征.台风运动过程中台风动力场、风暴增水及流场在空间上均具有"右偏性"的不对称分布特征,近岸风暴增水对台风的响应在时间上存在滞后性,风生流场具有较明显的滞后性特征.
Under global warming and climate change, coastal regions, including China, are increasingly vulnerable to typhoon damages. With typhoon gales, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, typhoons cause great economic losses and casualties to the coastal communities of China every year. Therefore, it is of great academic and social values to study the generation mechanism and movement mode of typhoons. However, accurately predicting the potential storm surge that a typhoon in growing can cause is a very challenging task. During the evolution of typhoons, the ocean-atmosphere(sea-air) interface has strong exchange of mass and energy. At the same time, various physical fields, such as wind, pressure, flow and wave fields interact strongly with each other. To accurately simulate the typhoons and the corresponding storm surge, the air-sea interaction is not to be neglected. Hence, it is very important to establish a reliable prediction model of sea-air coupling. In this paper, we established a fully two-way coupled sea-air model for South China Sea(SCS) by applying the mesoscale atmospheric model named WRF, the regional ocean model named ROMS, and the model coupling toolkit(MCT). In this complicated coupled sea-air model, WRF transfers the sea surface stress, net heat flux, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, shortwave radiation flux, and longwave radiation flux to ROMS through MCT coupler. In turn, ROMS transfers sea surface temperature(SST) to WRF. By applying the fully coupled WRF-ROMS model, the storm surge induced by Typhoon Kai-tak, 2012 in the SCS is simulated and analyzed in detail. The computational capability and reliability of the coupled WRF-ROMS model are well verified by comparing the simulated typhoon track, and corresponding intensity and strength with the observed values in the field. The verification data show that the two-way coupled model has better accuracy and advantage in simulating typhoon dynamics than the one-way coupled model. Subsequently, the validated two-way coupled model is used to systematically study the atmospheric dynamics and the storm surge induced by typhoons in SCS. By analyzing the numerical simulation results, the wind and pressure field, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of storm surge and wind-induced current, are obtained. We found that the spatial distribution of the wind, storm surge and flow fields caused by Typhoon Kai-tak is asymmetrical. The intensity of the typhoon on the right side of track is stronger than that on the left. Moreover, compared with the temporal evolution of typhoon, there is some delay in the evolution of the storm surge and the wind-induced current in the near shore.
Under global warming and climate change, coastal regions, including China, are increasingly vulnerable to typhoon damages. With typhoon gales, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, typhoons cause great economic losses and casualties to the coastal communities of China every year. Therefore, it is of great academic and social values to study the generation mechanism and movement mode of typhoons. However, accurately predicting the potential storm surge that a typhoon in growing can cause is a very challenging task. During the evolution of typhoons, the ocean-atmosphere(sea-air) interface has strong exchange of mass and energy. At the same time, various physical fields, such as wind, pressure, flow and wave fields interact strongly with each other. To accurately simulate the typhoons and the corresponding storm surge, the air-sea interaction is not to be neglected. Hence, it is very important to establish a reliable prediction model of sea-air coupling. In this paper, we established a fully two-way coupled sea-air model for South China Sea(SCS) by applying the mesoscale atmospheric model named WRF, the regional ocean model named ROMS, and the model coupling toolkit(MCT). In this complicated coupled sea-air model, WRF transfers the sea surface stress, net heat flux, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, shortwave radiation flux, and longwave radiation flux to ROMS through MCT coupler. In turn, ROMS transfers sea surface temperature(SST) to WRF. By applying the fully coupled WRF-ROMS model, the storm surge induced by Typhoon Kai-tak, 2012 in the SCS is simulated and analyzed in detail. The computational capability and reliability of the coupled WRF-ROMS model are well verified by comparing the simulated typhoon track, and corresponding intensity and strength with the observed values in the field. The verification data show that the two-way coupled model has better accuracy and advantage in simulating typhoon dynamics than the one-way coupled model. Subsequently, the validated two-way coupled model is used to systematically study the atmospheric dynamics and the storm surge induced by typhoons in SCS. By analyzing the numerical simulation results, the wind and pressure field, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of storm surge and wind-induced current, are obtained. We found that the spatial distribution of the wind, storm surge and flow fields caused by Typhoon Kai-tak is asymmetrical. The intensity of the typhoon on the right side of track is stronger than that on the left. Moreover, compared with the temporal evolution of typhoon, there is some delay in the evolution of the storm surge and the wind-induced current in the near shore.
引文
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2 Wu Z Y.Coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and its application on the simulation in storm surge in the South China Sea(in Chinese).Doctor Dissertation.Changsha:Changsha University of Science and Technology,2017[伍志元.大气-海浪-海洋耦合模型研究及其在南中国海风暴潮模拟中的应用.博士学位论文.长沙:长沙理工大学,2017]
3 Ge Z,Dai Z,Pang W,et al.LIDAR-based detection of the post-typhoon recovery of a meso-macro-tidal beach in the Beibu Gulf,China.Mar Geol,2017,391:127-143
4 Jelesnianski C P,Chen J,Shaffer W A.SLOSH:Sea,lake,and overland surges from hurricanes.Technical Report,National Weather Service,USA,1992
5 Forbes C,Rhome J,Mattocks C,et al.Predicting the storm surge threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSHmodel.J Mar Sci Eng,2014,2:437-476
6 Hu K,Chen Q,Wang H.A numerical study of vegetation impact on reducing storm surge by wetlands in a semi-enclosed estuary.Coast Eng,2015,95:66-76
7 Blumberg A F,Mellor G L.A description of a three-dimensional coastal ocean circulation model.AGU Fall Meeting,Three-dimensional coastal ocean models,Washington,USA,1987.1-16
8 Xie L,Pietrafesa L J,Peng M.Incorporation of a mass-conserving inundation scheme into a three dimensional storm surge model.JCoastal Res,2004:1209-1223
9 Li Y,Peng S,Yan J,et al.On improving storm surge forecasting using an adjoint optimal technique.Ocean Model,2013,72:185-197
10 Di L T,Colle B A,Georgas N,et al.Verification of a multimodel storm surge ensemble around New York City and Long Island for the cool season.Weather Forecast,2011,26:922-939
11 Blumberg A F,Georgas N,Yin L,et al.Street-scale modeling of storm surge inundation along the New Jersey Hudson river waterfront.JAtmos Ocean Tech,2015,32:1486-1497
12 Li M,Zhong L,Boicourt W C,et al.Hurricane-induced storm surges,currents and destratification in a semi-enclosed bay.Geophys Res Lett,2006,33,doi:10.1029/2005GL024992
13 You S H,Lee W J,Moon K S.Comparison of storm surge/tide predictions between a 2-D operational forecast system,the regional tide/storm surge model(RTSM),and the 3-D regional ocean modeling system(ROMS).Ocean Dynam,2010,60:443-459
14 Sheng Y P,Alymov V,Paramygin V A.Simulation of storm surge,wave,currents,and inundation in the Outer Banks and Chesapeake Bay during Hurricane Isabel in 2003:The importance of waves.J Geophys Res-Oceans,2010,115,doi:10.1029/2009JC005402
15 Zhang K,Li Y,Liu H,et al.Transition of the coastal and estuarine storm tide model to an operational storm surge forecast model:A case study of the Florida coast.Weather Forecast,2013,28:1019-1037
16 Zhang Y,Baptista A M.SELFE:A semi-implicit Eulerian-Lagrangian finite-element model for cross-scale ocean circulation.Ocean Model,2008,21:71-96
17 Rego J L,Li C.Storm surge propagation in Galveston Bay during hurricane Ike.J Marine Syst,2010,82:265-279
18 Mattocks C,Forbes C.A real-time,event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina.Ocean Model,2008,25:95-119
19 Zheng L S,Yu X P.Interaction between storm surge and astronomical tide in Hangzhou Bay(in Chinese).J Basic Sci Eng,2013,21:107-115[郑立松,余锡平.杭州湾内风暴潮与天文潮的耦合效应.应用基础与工程科学学报,2013,21:107-115]
20 Sebastian A,Proft J,Dietrich J C,et al.Characterizing hurricane storm surge behavior in Galveston Bay using the SWAN+ADCIRCmodel.Coast Eng,2014,88:171-181
21 Weisberg R H,Zheng L.Circulation of Tampa Bay driven by buoyancy,tides,and winds,as simulated using a finite volume coastal ocean model.J Geophys Res-Oceans,2006,111,doi:10.1029/2005JC003067
22 Rego J L,Li C.Nonlinear terms in storm surge predictions:Effect of tide and shelf geometry with case study from Hurricane Rita.JGeophys Res-Oceans,2010,115,doi:10.1029/2009JC005285
23 Black P G,D’Asaro E A,Sanford T B,et al.Air-sea exchange in hurricanes:Synthesis of observations from the coupled boundary layer air-sea transfer experiment.Bull Am Meteorol Soc,2007,88:357-374
24 Liu B,Liu H,Xie L,et al.A Coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system:Simulation of the intensity of an idealized tropical cyclone.Mon Weather Rev,2010,139:132-152
25 Wang Z,Zhou L,Li Q,et al.Storm surge along the yellow river delta under directional extreme wind conditions.J Coastal Res,2017,80:86-91
26 Kim K O,Lee H S,Yamashita T,et al.Wave and storm surge simulations for Hurricane Katrina using coupled process based models.KSCE J Civ Eng,2008,12:1-8
27 Warner J C,Armstrong B,He R,et al.Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport(COAWST)modeling system.Ocean Model,2010,35:230-244
28 Zambon J B,He R,Warner J C.Investigation of hurricane Ivan using the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport(COAWST)model.Ocean Dyn,2014,64:1535-1554
29 Pattanayak S,Mohanty U C,Rao A D.Simulation of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal using one-way coupling between NMM-WRFand IITD storm surge model.Mar Geod,2016,39:376-400
30 Lakshmi D D,Murty P L N,Bhaskaran P K,et al.Performance of WRF-ARW winds on computed storm surge using hydodynamic model for Phailin and Hudhud cyclones.Ocean Eng,2017,131:135-148
31 Laprise R.The Euler equations of motion with hydrostatic pressure as an independent variable.Mon Weather Rev,1992,120:197-207
32 Haidvogel D B,Arango H,Budgell W P,et al.Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates:Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System.J Comput Phys,2008,227:3595-3624
33 Craig A P,Jacob R,Kauffman B,et al.CPL6:The new extensible,high performance parallel coupler for the Community Climate System Model.Int J High Perform C,2005,19:309-327
2 Wu Z Y.Coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and its application on the simulation in storm surge in the South China Sea(in Chinese).Doctor Dissertation.Changsha:Changsha University of Science and Technology,2017[伍志元.大气-海浪-海洋耦合模型研究及其在南中国海风暴潮模拟中的应用.博士学位论文.长沙:长沙理工大学,2017]
3 Ge Z,Dai Z,Pang W,et al.LIDAR-based detection of the post-typhoon recovery of a meso-macro-tidal beach in the Beibu Gulf,China.Mar Geol,2017,391:127-143
4 Jelesnianski C P,Chen J,Shaffer W A.SLOSH:Sea,lake,and overland surges from hurricanes.Technical Report,National Weather Service,USA,1992
5 Forbes C,Rhome J,Mattocks C,et al.Predicting the storm surge threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSHmodel.J Mar Sci Eng,2014,2:437-476
6 Hu K,Chen Q,Wang H.A numerical study of vegetation impact on reducing storm surge by wetlands in a semi-enclosed estuary.Coast Eng,2015,95:66-76
7 Blumberg A F,Mellor G L.A description of a three-dimensional coastal ocean circulation model.AGU Fall Meeting,Three-dimensional coastal ocean models,Washington,USA,1987.1-16
8 Xie L,Pietrafesa L J,Peng M.Incorporation of a mass-conserving inundation scheme into a three dimensional storm surge model.JCoastal Res,2004:1209-1223
9 Li Y,Peng S,Yan J,et al.On improving storm surge forecasting using an adjoint optimal technique.Ocean Model,2013,72:185-197
10 Di L T,Colle B A,Georgas N,et al.Verification of a multimodel storm surge ensemble around New York City and Long Island for the cool season.Weather Forecast,2011,26:922-939
11 Blumberg A F,Georgas N,Yin L,et al.Street-scale modeling of storm surge inundation along the New Jersey Hudson river waterfront.JAtmos Ocean Tech,2015,32:1486-1497
12 Li M,Zhong L,Boicourt W C,et al.Hurricane-induced storm surges,currents and destratification in a semi-enclosed bay.Geophys Res Lett,2006,33,doi:10.1029/2005GL024992
13 You S H,Lee W J,Moon K S.Comparison of storm surge/tide predictions between a 2-D operational forecast system,the regional tide/storm surge model(RTSM),and the 3-D regional ocean modeling system(ROMS).Ocean Dynam,2010,60:443-459
14 Sheng Y P,Alymov V,Paramygin V A.Simulation of storm surge,wave,currents,and inundation in the Outer Banks and Chesapeake Bay during Hurricane Isabel in 2003:The importance of waves.J Geophys Res-Oceans,2010,115,doi:10.1029/2009JC005402
15 Zhang K,Li Y,Liu H,et al.Transition of the coastal and estuarine storm tide model to an operational storm surge forecast model:A case study of the Florida coast.Weather Forecast,2013,28:1019-1037
16 Zhang Y,Baptista A M.SELFE:A semi-implicit Eulerian-Lagrangian finite-element model for cross-scale ocean circulation.Ocean Model,2008,21:71-96
17 Rego J L,Li C.Storm surge propagation in Galveston Bay during hurricane Ike.J Marine Syst,2010,82:265-279
18 Mattocks C,Forbes C.A real-time,event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina.Ocean Model,2008,25:95-119
19 Zheng L S,Yu X P.Interaction between storm surge and astronomical tide in Hangzhou Bay(in Chinese).J Basic Sci Eng,2013,21:107-115[郑立松,余锡平.杭州湾内风暴潮与天文潮的耦合效应.应用基础与工程科学学报,2013,21:107-115]
20 Sebastian A,Proft J,Dietrich J C,et al.Characterizing hurricane storm surge behavior in Galveston Bay using the SWAN+ADCIRCmodel.Coast Eng,2014,88:171-181
21 Weisberg R H,Zheng L.Circulation of Tampa Bay driven by buoyancy,tides,and winds,as simulated using a finite volume coastal ocean model.J Geophys Res-Oceans,2006,111,doi:10.1029/2005JC003067
22 Rego J L,Li C.Nonlinear terms in storm surge predictions:Effect of tide and shelf geometry with case study from Hurricane Rita.JGeophys Res-Oceans,2010,115,doi:10.1029/2009JC005285
23 Black P G,D’Asaro E A,Sanford T B,et al.Air-sea exchange in hurricanes:Synthesis of observations from the coupled boundary layer air-sea transfer experiment.Bull Am Meteorol Soc,2007,88:357-374
24 Liu B,Liu H,Xie L,et al.A Coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system:Simulation of the intensity of an idealized tropical cyclone.Mon Weather Rev,2010,139:132-152
25 Wang Z,Zhou L,Li Q,et al.Storm surge along the yellow river delta under directional extreme wind conditions.J Coastal Res,2017,80:86-91
26 Kim K O,Lee H S,Yamashita T,et al.Wave and storm surge simulations for Hurricane Katrina using coupled process based models.KSCE J Civ Eng,2008,12:1-8
27 Warner J C,Armstrong B,He R,et al.Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport(COAWST)modeling system.Ocean Model,2010,35:230-244
28 Zambon J B,He R,Warner J C.Investigation of hurricane Ivan using the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport(COAWST)model.Ocean Dyn,2014,64:1535-1554
29 Pattanayak S,Mohanty U C,Rao A D.Simulation of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal using one-way coupling between NMM-WRFand IITD storm surge model.Mar Geod,2016,39:376-400
30 Lakshmi D D,Murty P L N,Bhaskaran P K,et al.Performance of WRF-ARW winds on computed storm surge using hydodynamic model for Phailin and Hudhud cyclones.Ocean Eng,2017,131:135-148
31 Laprise R.The Euler equations of motion with hydrostatic pressure as an independent variable.Mon Weather Rev,1992,120:197-207
32 Haidvogel D B,Arango H,Budgell W P,et al.Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates:Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System.J Comput Phys,2008,227:3595-3624
33 Craig A P,Jacob R,Kauffman B,et al.CPL6:The new extensible,high performance parallel coupler for the Community Climate System Model.Int J High Perform C,2005,19:309-327