浙江省县域森林生态承载力评价及时空演变分析
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摘要
以浙江省71个区县为研究对象,基于PSR(Pressure-State-Response)模型,利用熵权法与专家法确定综合权重,将状态空间法与向量模法相结合计算浙江省县域森林生态承载力,分析比较2001～2016年浙江省县域森林生态承载力的时空分布规律,并结合GIS技术对浙江省县域森林生态承载力等级分布格局进行空间相关性分析。结果表明:浙江省森林生态系统整体上处于适度可载区并且得到了持续改善;林木采伐强度、森林火灾致灾率、单位面积GDP、单位面积工业产值等指标权重最大;浙江省森林生态承载力状况分布不均衡,西南部承载力水平最高,中部次之,浙北地区最低;浙江省森林生态承载力具有显著的空间正相关性和空间聚集性,高-高聚类显著性更强,且大多集中在浙江省西南部地区。
The paper focused on the evalution of county forest ecological carrying capacity of Zhejiang province that based on Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model with entropy weight and expert method to calculate the weight and combined the state-space techniques and vector mode with GIS to analyze the space-time distribution patterns and its spatial correlation of 71 counties from years of 2001 to 2016. As a result, firstly, Zhejiang province's forest ecological carrying capacity(ZFEC) is in a moderate loading area with continuously improvement in the whole, and the indexes of the tree cutting intensity, forest fire disaster rate, unit area GDP, unit area industrial output value expressed maximum weight. Secondly, the distribution of ZFEC is exceptionally unevenly distributed, with the highest level of carrying capacity in the southwestern part,followed by the middle part and the lowest in the northen part. Finally, the ZFEC shows significant spatial auto correlation and spatial aggregation with the most significant high-high clustering and mainly concentrates in the southwest districts of Zhejiang province.
The paper focused on the evalution of county forest ecological carrying capacity of Zhejiang province that based on Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model with entropy weight and expert method to calculate the weight and combined the state-space techniques and vector mode with GIS to analyze the space-time distribution patterns and its spatial correlation of 71 counties from years of 2001 to 2016. As a result, firstly, Zhejiang province's forest ecological carrying capacity(ZFEC) is in a moderate loading area with continuously improvement in the whole, and the indexes of the tree cutting intensity, forest fire disaster rate, unit area GDP, unit area industrial output value expressed maximum weight. Secondly, the distribution of ZFEC is exceptionally unevenly distributed, with the highest level of carrying capacity in the southwestern part,followed by the middle part and the lowest in the northen part. Finally, the ZFEC shows significant spatial auto correlation and spatial aggregation with the most significant high-high clustering and mainly concentrates in the southwest districts of Zhejiang province.
引文
[1] 高吉喜.可持续发展理论探讨:生态承载力理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2001.GAO J X. Theory explore of sustainable development:Ecological carrying capacity theory, method and application [M]. Beijing: China Environment Science Press, 2001.
[2] RITTER E, DAUKSTA D.Human-forest relationships: Ancient values in modern perspectives[J]. Environment Development and Sustainability,2013,15(3):645-662.
[3] 郭秀锐,毛显强,冉圣宏.国内环境承载力研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2000(S1):29-31.GUO X R,MAO X Q,RAN S H.Research progress in environmental carrying capacity in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2000(S1):29-31.
[4] 梅多斯.增长的极限[M].北京:商务印书馆,1984:15-268.MEADOWS D. The limits of growth [M]. Beijing:The Commercial Press,1984:15-268.
[5] SLEESER M.Enhancement of carrying capacity options ECCO[M].London:The Resource Use Institute,1990.
[6] DAILY G C,EHRLICH P R. Population,sustainability,and earth’s carrying capacity[J].BioScience,1992,42(10):761-771.
[7] SAVERIADES A. Establishing the social tourism carrying capacity for the tourist resorts of the east coast of the Republic of Cyprus[J].Tourism Management,2000,21(2):147-156.
[8] 张林波,李文华,刘孝富,等.承载力理论的起源、发展与展望[J].生态学报,2009,29(2):878-888.ZHANG L B, LI W H, LIU X F, et al . Carrying capacity: Origin, development and prospective [J]. Acta Ecological Sinica, 2009, 29(2):878-888.
[9] 刘文政,朱瑾.资源环境承载力研究进展:基于地理学综合研究的视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(6):75-86.LIU W Z , ZHU J. Research progress of resources and environmental carrying capacity: from the perspective of the comprehensive study of geography[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017,27(6):75-86.
[10] 顾康康.生态承载力的概念及其研究方法[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(2):389-396.GU K K.The concept of ecological carrying capacity and its research methods[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2012,21(2): 389-396.
[11] 黄青,任志远.论生态承载力与生态安全[J].干旱区资源与环境,2004,18(2):11-17.HUANG Q,REN Z Y. Ecological carrying capacity and ecological security[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources & Environment, 2004, 18(2):11-17.
[12] 杨亮洁,杨永春.甘肃省资源环境承载力时空分异[J].生态学报,2017,37(20):7000-7017.YANG L J, YANG Y C. Study on the spatiotemporal variation in resource environmental carrying capacity in the Gansu province of China[J]. Acta Ecological Sinica, 2017, 37(20):7000-7017.
[13] 符国基,徐恒力,陈文婷.海南省自然生态承载力研究[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(3): 412-421.FU G J, XU H L, CHEN W T. Natural ecological carrying capacity in Hainan Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(3): 412-421.
[14] 焦雯珺,闵庆文,李文华,等.基于ESEF的水生态承载力评估——以太湖流域湖州市为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(1):147-155.JIAO W J, MIN Q W, LI W H, et al. Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: An application in Huzhou City in the Tai Lake basin[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016, 25(1): 147-155.
[15] 于广华,孙才志.环渤海沿海地区土地承载力时空分异特征[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4860-4870.YU G H , SUN C Z.Land carrying capacity spatiotemporal differentiation in the Bohai Sea Coastal Areas[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(14): 4860-4870.
[16] 李明,董少彧,张海红,等.基于多维状态空间与神经网络模型的山东省海域承载力评价与预警研究[J].海洋通报,2015,34(6):608-615.LI M, DONG S Y, ZHANG H H, et al.Studies on the early-warning and evaluation of the carrying capacity of sea area in Shandong Province based on the multi-dimensional state space and neural network model[J].Marine Science Bulletin, 2015, 34(6): 608-615.
[17] 马忠强,汪林.基于系统动力学的大连城市化进程中生态承载力模拟预测[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2013,33(4):70-75.MA Z Q, WANG L. Simulation and prediction of ecological bearing capacity based on system dynamics in urbanization process of Dalian City[J]. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology, 2013, 33(4):70-75.
[18] 田玲玲,罗静,董莹,等.湖北省生态足迹和生态承载力时空动态研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(2):316-325.TIAN L L, LUO J, DONG Y, et al.Temporal and spatial dynamic research of the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Hubei Province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016, 25(2):316-325.
[19] 吴静和.浙江省森林资源的承载能力[J].浙江林学院学报,1990(3):4-11.WU J H.The Load-bearing capacity of forest resources in Zhejiang Province[J].Journal of Zhejiang Forestry College, 1990 (3):4-11.
[20] 徐德成.森林资源环境人口承载力初步研究[J].地域研究与开发,1993(4):11-15,19-63.XU D C.A Primary study on the carrying capacity of forest resource,environment and population[J].Areal Research and Development,1993(4):11-15, 19-63.
[21] 胡启平,张华.框架-剪力墙-薄壁筒斜交结构分析的状态空间法[J].工程力学,2006(4):125-129.HU Q P, ZHANG H .State space methods for the analysis of frame-shear wall-thin walled core skew combined structure[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2006(4):125-129.
[22] 熊建新,陈端吕,谢雪梅.基于状态空间法的洞庭湖区生态承载力综合评价研究[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):138-142.XIONG J X, CHEN D L, XIE X M. Comprehensive evaluation on ecological carrying capacity based on state-space techniques in Dongting Lake region[J]. Economic Geography, 2012, 32(11): 138-142.
[23] 毛汉英,余丹林.区域承载力定量研究方法探讨[J].地球科学进展, 2001, 16(4): 549-555.MAO H Y, YU D L. A study on the quantitative research of regional carrying capacity[J]. Advance in Earth Science, 2001, 16(4): 549-555.
[24] 苏喜友. 森林承载力研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2002.SU X Y. A Study on forest carrying capacity[D]. Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2002.
[25] 袁久和,祁春节. 基于熵值法的湖南省农业可持续发展能力动态评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(2):152-157.YUAN J H, QI C J. Dynamic assessment of regional agricultural sustainability of Hunan Province based on entropy method[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013,22(2):152-157.
[26] 徐孝勇,王艳冲.基于状态空间法的重庆市区域环境承载力研究[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,32(6):127-133.XU X Y, WANG Y C. Research into Chongqing regional environmental carrying capacity based on the state-space method[J].Journal of Chongqing Normal University(Natural Science),2015,32(6):127-133.
[27] 黄秋森,赵岩,许新宜,等.基于弹簧模型的资源环境承载力评价及应用——以内蒙古自治区陈巴尔虎旗为例[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(1):173-184.HUANG Q S, ZHAO Y, XU X Y, et al. Evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity based on spring model:Taking Chen Barag Banner in Inner Mongolia as an example[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(1):173-184.
[28] 何键芳,张虹鸥,叶玉瑶,等.广东省区域创新产出的空间相关性研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(2):117-121,140.HE J F, ZHANG H O, YE Y Y, et al. Research on spatial autocorrelation of innovation output in Guangdong Province[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(2):117-121,140.
[29] 冯彦,祝凌云,张大红.中国产业结构调整对碳强度影响的空间计量研究[J].软科学,2017,31(7):11-15.FENG Y ,ZHU L Y,ZHANG D H. Spatial and econometric analysis of effect of industrial structure adjustment on carbon intensity in China[J].Soft Science, 2017,31(7):11-15.
[30] 王亚文. 基于状态空间法的城市生态系统承载力研究[D].西北大学,2006.WANG Y W.Study on urban ecosystem carrying capacity by the state space method: Take Xi’an City as example[D]. Northwest University, 2006.
[2] RITTER E, DAUKSTA D.Human-forest relationships: Ancient values in modern perspectives[J]. Environment Development and Sustainability,2013,15(3):645-662.
[3] 郭秀锐,毛显强,冉圣宏.国内环境承载力研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2000(S1):29-31.GUO X R,MAO X Q,RAN S H.Research progress in environmental carrying capacity in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2000(S1):29-31.
[4] 梅多斯.增长的极限[M].北京:商务印书馆,1984:15-268.MEADOWS D. The limits of growth [M]. Beijing:The Commercial Press,1984:15-268.
[5] SLEESER M.Enhancement of carrying capacity options ECCO[M].London:The Resource Use Institute,1990.
[6] DAILY G C,EHRLICH P R. Population,sustainability,and earth’s carrying capacity[J].BioScience,1992,42(10):761-771.
[7] SAVERIADES A. Establishing the social tourism carrying capacity for the tourist resorts of the east coast of the Republic of Cyprus[J].Tourism Management,2000,21(2):147-156.
[8] 张林波,李文华,刘孝富,等.承载力理论的起源、发展与展望[J].生态学报,2009,29(2):878-888.ZHANG L B, LI W H, LIU X F, et al . Carrying capacity: Origin, development and prospective [J]. Acta Ecological Sinica, 2009, 29(2):878-888.
[9] 刘文政,朱瑾.资源环境承载力研究进展:基于地理学综合研究的视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(6):75-86.LIU W Z , ZHU J. Research progress of resources and environmental carrying capacity: from the perspective of the comprehensive study of geography[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017,27(6):75-86.
[10] 顾康康.生态承载力的概念及其研究方法[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(2):389-396.GU K K.The concept of ecological carrying capacity and its research methods[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2012,21(2): 389-396.
[11] 黄青,任志远.论生态承载力与生态安全[J].干旱区资源与环境,2004,18(2):11-17.HUANG Q,REN Z Y. Ecological carrying capacity and ecological security[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources & Environment, 2004, 18(2):11-17.
[12] 杨亮洁,杨永春.甘肃省资源环境承载力时空分异[J].生态学报,2017,37(20):7000-7017.YANG L J, YANG Y C. Study on the spatiotemporal variation in resource environmental carrying capacity in the Gansu province of China[J]. Acta Ecological Sinica, 2017, 37(20):7000-7017.
[13] 符国基,徐恒力,陈文婷.海南省自然生态承载力研究[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(3): 412-421.FU G J, XU H L, CHEN W T. Natural ecological carrying capacity in Hainan Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(3): 412-421.
[14] 焦雯珺,闵庆文,李文华,等.基于ESEF的水生态承载力评估——以太湖流域湖州市为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(1):147-155.JIAO W J, MIN Q W, LI W H, et al. Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: An application in Huzhou City in the Tai Lake basin[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016, 25(1): 147-155.
[15] 于广华,孙才志.环渤海沿海地区土地承载力时空分异特征[J].生态学报,2015,35(14):4860-4870.YU G H , SUN C Z.Land carrying capacity spatiotemporal differentiation in the Bohai Sea Coastal Areas[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(14): 4860-4870.
[16] 李明,董少彧,张海红,等.基于多维状态空间与神经网络模型的山东省海域承载力评价与预警研究[J].海洋通报,2015,34(6):608-615.LI M, DONG S Y, ZHANG H H, et al.Studies on the early-warning and evaluation of the carrying capacity of sea area in Shandong Province based on the multi-dimensional state space and neural network model[J].Marine Science Bulletin, 2015, 34(6): 608-615.
[17] 马忠强,汪林.基于系统动力学的大连城市化进程中生态承载力模拟预测[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2013,33(4):70-75.MA Z Q, WANG L. Simulation and prediction of ecological bearing capacity based on system dynamics in urbanization process of Dalian City[J]. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology, 2013, 33(4):70-75.
[18] 田玲玲,罗静,董莹,等.湖北省生态足迹和生态承载力时空动态研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(2):316-325.TIAN L L, LUO J, DONG Y, et al.Temporal and spatial dynamic research of the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Hubei Province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016, 25(2):316-325.
[19] 吴静和.浙江省森林资源的承载能力[J].浙江林学院学报,1990(3):4-11.WU J H.The Load-bearing capacity of forest resources in Zhejiang Province[J].Journal of Zhejiang Forestry College, 1990 (3):4-11.
[20] 徐德成.森林资源环境人口承载力初步研究[J].地域研究与开发,1993(4):11-15,19-63.XU D C.A Primary study on the carrying capacity of forest resource,environment and population[J].Areal Research and Development,1993(4):11-15, 19-63.
[21] 胡启平,张华.框架-剪力墙-薄壁筒斜交结构分析的状态空间法[J].工程力学,2006(4):125-129.HU Q P, ZHANG H .State space methods for the analysis of frame-shear wall-thin walled core skew combined structure[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2006(4):125-129.
[22] 熊建新,陈端吕,谢雪梅.基于状态空间法的洞庭湖区生态承载力综合评价研究[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):138-142.XIONG J X, CHEN D L, XIE X M. Comprehensive evaluation on ecological carrying capacity based on state-space techniques in Dongting Lake region[J]. Economic Geography, 2012, 32(11): 138-142.
[23] 毛汉英,余丹林.区域承载力定量研究方法探讨[J].地球科学进展, 2001, 16(4): 549-555.MAO H Y, YU D L. A study on the quantitative research of regional carrying capacity[J]. Advance in Earth Science, 2001, 16(4): 549-555.
[24] 苏喜友. 森林承载力研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2002.SU X Y. A Study on forest carrying capacity[D]. Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2002.
[25] 袁久和,祁春节. 基于熵值法的湖南省农业可持续发展能力动态评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(2):152-157.YUAN J H, QI C J. Dynamic assessment of regional agricultural sustainability of Hunan Province based on entropy method[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013,22(2):152-157.
[26] 徐孝勇,王艳冲.基于状态空间法的重庆市区域环境承载力研究[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,32(6):127-133.XU X Y, WANG Y C. Research into Chongqing regional environmental carrying capacity based on the state-space method[J].Journal of Chongqing Normal University(Natural Science),2015,32(6):127-133.
[27] 黄秋森,赵岩,许新宜,等.基于弹簧模型的资源环境承载力评价及应用——以内蒙古自治区陈巴尔虎旗为例[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(1):173-184.HUANG Q S, ZHAO Y, XU X Y, et al. Evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity based on spring model:Taking Chen Barag Banner in Inner Mongolia as an example[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(1):173-184.
[28] 何键芳,张虹鸥,叶玉瑶,等.广东省区域创新产出的空间相关性研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(2):117-121,140.HE J F, ZHANG H O, YE Y Y, et al. Research on spatial autocorrelation of innovation output in Guangdong Province[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(2):117-121,140.
[29] 冯彦,祝凌云,张大红.中国产业结构调整对碳强度影响的空间计量研究[J].软科学,2017,31(7):11-15.FENG Y ,ZHU L Y,ZHANG D H. Spatial and econometric analysis of effect of industrial structure adjustment on carbon intensity in China[J].Soft Science, 2017,31(7):11-15.
[30] 王亚文. 基于状态空间法的城市生态系统承载力研究[D].西北大学,2006.WANG Y W.Study on urban ecosystem carrying capacity by the state space method: Take Xi’an City as example[D]. Northwest University, 2006.