层次分析法探讨气候变化对一个国家脆弱性的影响
|
摘要
气候变化问题是典型的全球公共问题和非传统安全问题。本文利用层次分析法(AHP)和多元线性回归(MLR)技术提出了一种新的评估气候变化对国家脆弱性影响的方法。通过构造社会、政治、经济三大因素矩阵,计算气候影响前后国家脆弱性分数大小,并判断哪个因素对国家脆弱性影响最大,得出国家脆弱性等级分类。结果表明:气候变化会影响国家脆弱性,中等脆弱性的国家更可能受到影响,其中经济、政治相对社会因素对国家脆弱性影响较大,对于脆弱程度较高的国家,气候影响反而并不显著。
Climate change is a typical global public issue and non-traditional security issue. In this paper,a new method to evaluate the impact of climate change on national vulnerability is proposed by using Analytic Hierarchy Process( AHP) and Multiple Linear Regression( MLR) techniques. By constructing a matrix of social,political and economic factors,the national vulnerability scores before and after climate impact are calculated,and which factor has the greatest impact on the national vulnerability is judged. The classification of national vulnerability grades is obtained. The results show that climate change will affect the national vulnerability,and countries with moderate vulnerability are more likely to be affected. Among them,economic and political relative social factors have greater impact on the national vulnerability,while for countries with higher vulnerability,the climate impact is not significant.
Climate change is a typical global public issue and non-traditional security issue. In this paper,a new method to evaluate the impact of climate change on national vulnerability is proposed by using Analytic Hierarchy Process( AHP) and Multiple Linear Regression( MLR) techniques. By constructing a matrix of social,political and economic factors,the national vulnerability scores before and after climate impact are calculated,and which factor has the greatest impact on the national vulnerability is judged. The classification of national vulnerability grades is obtained. The results show that climate change will affect the national vulnerability,and countries with moderate vulnerability are more likely to be affected. Among them,economic and political relative social factors have greater impact on the national vulnerability,while for countries with higher vulnerability,the climate impact is not significant.
引文
[1]李松琳.论中国应对气候变化问题的多边合作[D].北京:外交学院,2010.
[2]吴乐英.各国经济自治下全球气候合作治理政策模拟及系统研发[D].上海:华东师范大学,2017.
[3]张紫东,张雷.气候变化影响区域不稳定性的优化研究[J].科技与创新,2018(20):104-105.
[4]刘浪,王利.层次分析法在数学建模中的应用[J].成功(教育),2013(10):78-79.
[5]邵威,章张琦,章文琦.国家脆弱性评价与分析研究[J].中国高新区,2018(13):64.
[6]刘豹,许树柏,赵焕臣,等.层次分析法—规划决策的工具[J].系统工程,1984(2):23-30.
[7]洪志国,李焱,范植华,等.层次分析法中高阶平均随机一致性指标(RI)的计算[J].计算机工程与应用,2002(12):45-47.
[8]刘澄.俄罗斯金融危机与经济安全的脆弱性[J].华南金融研究,2001(2):23-25.
[9]林水源.俄罗斯经济稳定的脆弱性和不确定性[J].经济研究参考,1996(ZA):52-53.
[2]吴乐英.各国经济自治下全球气候合作治理政策模拟及系统研发[D].上海:华东师范大学,2017.
[3]张紫东,张雷.气候变化影响区域不稳定性的优化研究[J].科技与创新,2018(20):104-105.
[4]刘浪,王利.层次分析法在数学建模中的应用[J].成功(教育),2013(10):78-79.
[5]邵威,章张琦,章文琦.国家脆弱性评价与分析研究[J].中国高新区,2018(13):64.
[6]刘豹,许树柏,赵焕臣,等.层次分析法—规划决策的工具[J].系统工程,1984(2):23-30.
[7]洪志国,李焱,范植华,等.层次分析法中高阶平均随机一致性指标(RI)的计算[J].计算机工程与应用,2002(12):45-47.
[8]刘澄.俄罗斯金融危机与经济安全的脆弱性[J].华南金融研究,2001(2):23-25.
[9]林水源.俄罗斯经济稳定的脆弱性和不确定性[J].经济研究参考,1996(ZA):52-53.