外商直接投资与地方财政分权对省域碳排放的影响机理及门槛效应——基于动态面板系统GMM模型的计量分析
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摘要
利用2000-2015年中国30个省份面板数据,通过构建动态面板的广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)模型,实证分析了外商直接投资和地方财政分权对中国碳排放影响机理及门槛效应。研究结果表明:基于全国样本数据,外商直接投资和地方财政分权对区域碳排放有显著的正向促进效应,相比地方财政分权,外商直接投资对碳排放有更大的影响效应;基于区域异质性视角,东部地区和中部地区的地方财政分权对区域碳排放有显著的正向促进效应,而西部地区的外商直接投资对区域碳排放呈现显著地正向促进效应。进一步构建外商直接投资和地方财政分权对区域碳排放的门槛效应模型发现,地方政府财政分权对区域碳排放具有双重门槛,其门槛值分别为0.922和2.309。随着地方政府财政分权度的提高,外商直接投资对区域碳排放的正向促进效应逐渐减弱,本研究为"污染天堂"效应和"竞争到底"假说的有效性提供了经验证据。建议积极发挥地方政府发挥财政资源配置在推动区域经济增长和环境优化进程中的主导作用,积极引导外商资本逐步由一般加工向"技术型"外资转型拓展,推动辖区内产业由"粗放式"向"精细化"发展过渡转型,构建区域经济增长和环境优化的协同发展机制。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2015,the influence mechanism and threshold effect of foreign direct investment(FDI)and local fiscal decentralization(LFD)on China's carbon emission are analyzed by constructing the System Generalized Method of Moment(SYS-GMM)model of dynamic panel.The results show that FDI and LFD have a significant positive effect on regional carbon emissions from the national sample data.FDI has a greater impact on carbon emissions than LFD.From the perspective of regional heterogeneity,LFD in the eastern and central regions has a significant positive effect on regional carbon emissions,and so does FDI in the western regions.The threshold effect model of FDI and LFD on the regional carbon emissions shows that the local government fiscal decentralization on regional carbon emissions has a dual threshold,the threshold values being 0.922 and 2.309.With the increase of local government's fiscal decentralization,the positive effect of FDI on regional carbon emissions is gradual declining.This study provides empirical evidence for the effectiveness of"pollution haven"and"race to the bottom"hypotheses.It is proposed that the local government should actively give play to the leading role of financial resources allocation in promoting regional economic growth and environmental optimization,actively guide foreign investment to transform gradually from "general processing"to"technology-driven type"for the promotion of the industry from "extensive"to"intensive"development,and construct the collaborative development mechanism about regional economic growth and environmental optimization.
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2015,the influence mechanism and threshold effect of foreign direct investment(FDI)and local fiscal decentralization(LFD)on China's carbon emission are analyzed by constructing the System Generalized Method of Moment(SYS-GMM)model of dynamic panel.The results show that FDI and LFD have a significant positive effect on regional carbon emissions from the national sample data.FDI has a greater impact on carbon emissions than LFD.From the perspective of regional heterogeneity,LFD in the eastern and central regions has a significant positive effect on regional carbon emissions,and so does FDI in the western regions.The threshold effect model of FDI and LFD on the regional carbon emissions shows that the local government fiscal decentralization on regional carbon emissions has a dual threshold,the threshold values being 0.922 and 2.309.With the increase of local government's fiscal decentralization,the positive effect of FDI on regional carbon emissions is gradual declining.This study provides empirical evidence for the effectiveness of"pollution haven"and"race to the bottom"hypotheses.It is proposed that the local government should actively give play to the leading role of financial resources allocation in promoting regional economic growth and environmental optimization,actively guide foreign investment to transform gradually from "general processing"to"technology-driven type"for the promotion of the industry from "extensive"to"intensive"development,and construct the collaborative development mechanism about regional economic growth and environmental optimization.
引文
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[19]庞明礼.地方政府竞争方式的演进:一个基于FDI的实证研究[J].人文杂志,2007(4):63-70.
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[21]王垒,刘新民,董啸.我国企业家集群创新驱动沿海省域经济增长的实证分析[J].科技管理研究,2016(21):192-197.
[2]REN S,YUAN B,Ma X,et al.International trade,FDI(foreign direct investment)and embodied CO2emissions:a case study of China’s industrial sectors[J].China Economic Review,2014(28):123-134.
[3]G?KMENO?LU K,TASPINAR N.The relationship between CO2emissions,energy consumption,economic growth and FDI:the case of Turkey[J].The Journal of International Trade&Economic Development,2016(5):706-723.
[4]郭沛,张曙霄.外商直接投资对中国碳排放量的影响---基于2002-2010年面板数据的研究[J].东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版),2013(3):40-44.
[5]LETCHUMANAN R,KODAMA F.Reconciling the conflict between the“pollution-haven”hypothesis and an emerging trajectory of international technology transfer[J].Research Policy,2000(1):59-79.
[6]ELLIOT R J R,SUN P,CHEN S.Energy intensity and foreign direct investment:a Chinese city-level study[J].Energy Economics,2013,40:484-494.
[7]谢文武,肖文,汪滢.开放经济对碳排放的影响---基于中国地区与行业面板数据的实证检验[J/OL].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2011(5):163-174.
[8]姚奕,倪勤.外商直接投资对碳强度的影响---基于中国省级动态面板数据的实证研究[J].数理统计与管理,2013(1):113-122.
[9]张欣怡.财政分权与环境污染的文献综述[J].经济社会体制比较,2013(6):246-253.
[10]BRETON A,SCOTT A.Economic constitution of federal states[M].Toronto:University of Toronto Press,2016.
[11]谭志雄,张阳阳.财政分权与环境污染关系实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(4):110-117.
[12]LIST J A,GERKING S.Regulatory federalism and environmental protection in the United States[J].Journal of Regional Science,2000,40(3):453-471.
[13]王娟,张克中.财政分权、地方官员与碳排放---来自中国省长、省委书记的证据[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2014(9):3-14.
[14]KAYA Y.Impact of carbon dioxide emission control on GNP growth:interpretation of proposal scenarios[R].Paris:Presentation to the Energy and Industry Subgroup,Response Strategies Working Group,IPCC,1989:1-25.
[15]YORK R,ROSA E A,DIETZ T.Bridging environmental science with environmental policy:plasticity of population,affluence,and technology[J].Social Science Quarterly,2002(1):18-34.
[16]陈强.高级计量计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014:103-105.
[17]HANSEN B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999(4):345-368.
[18]杨骞,刘华军.中国二氧化碳排放的区域差异分解及影响因素-基于1995~2009年省际面板数据的研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(5):36-49.
[19]庞明礼.地方政府竞争方式的演进:一个基于FDI的实证研究[J].人文杂志,2007(4):63-70.
[20]张晏,龚六堂.分税制改革、财政分权与中国经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2005(4):75-108.
[21]王垒,刘新民,董啸.我国企业家集群创新驱动沿海省域经济增长的实证分析[J].科技管理研究,2016(21):192-197.