基于国际贸易与自然灾害背景下的中国农产品供需平衡展望
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摘要
国际贸易与自然灾害是影响农产品供需的重要因素。通过python语言程序获取1978—2017年中国小麦、玉米、大豆3种主要农作物的年产量和近年来的国际贸易数据以及改革开放以来每年自然灾害造成的受灾、成灾、绝收面积,整合这些资料计算灾害强度指数,并分析其与粮食产量的相关关系,阐明了贸易战与自然灾害对中国农业生产的影响,并提出应对挑战的措施。分析表明,贸易战对中国不同农产品的影响程度不同,但都处于可控范围,大豆产业受到的影响相对较大,但可以通过其他措施予以缓冲和应对;自然灾害对中国农作物产量一直影响较大,加强灾害预警、保护农业生产至关重要。
International trade and natural disasters are important factors affecting supply and demand of agricultural products. This paper obtained the annual yields of three main crops of wheat, maize and soybean in China from 1978 to 2017 and international trade data in recent years, as well as the disaster-stricken,disaster-stricken and no-harvest areas of the whole country every year since the reform and opening-up by Python language program. Based on the above data, the authors illustrated the impact of trade wars and natural disasters on agricultural production through integrating the data calculations, calculating the disaster intensity index, analyzing its correlation with grain production, and then proposed measures and policies to address the challenges. The results showed that the influence of trade war on different agricultural products in China was different, but they were all in controllable range, the impact on soybean industry was relatively large, but it could be buffered and dealt with through other measures. Natural disasters have a greater impact on crop yields in China, it is very important to strengthen disaster early warning and protect agricultural production.
International trade and natural disasters are important factors affecting supply and demand of agricultural products. This paper obtained the annual yields of three main crops of wheat, maize and soybean in China from 1978 to 2017 and international trade data in recent years, as well as the disaster-stricken,disaster-stricken and no-harvest areas of the whole country every year since the reform and opening-up by Python language program. Based on the above data, the authors illustrated the impact of trade wars and natural disasters on agricultural production through integrating the data calculations, calculating the disaster intensity index, analyzing its correlation with grain production, and then proposed measures and policies to address the challenges. The results showed that the influence of trade war on different agricultural products in China was different, but they were all in controllable range, the impact on soybean industry was relatively large, but it could be buffered and dealt with through other measures. Natural disasters have a greater impact on crop yields in China, it is very important to strengthen disaster early warning and protect agricultural production.
引文
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[2]姚博.美国“301调查”和中美“贸易战”[J].亚太经济,2018(3):47-52.
[3]陈继勇.中美贸易战的背景、原因、本质及中国对策[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,71(5):72-81.
[4]雷达.中美贸易战的长期性和严峻程度[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(3):3-5.
[5]黄昕.把贸易战的挑战化为机遇助推中国农业加快发展[J].现代农业装备,2018(4):74-75.
[6]蔺晓强.农业自然灾害对我国粮食综合生产能力的影响研究[D].湘潭:湘潭大学,2013.
[7]赵映慧,郭晶鹏,毛克彪,等.1949—2015年中国典型自然灾害及粮食灾损特征[J].地理学报,2017,72(7):1261-1276.
[8]蒋培,冯燕.农业规模化经营的社会基础分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2015,15(1):128-134.
[9]李海丽.农产品质量提升与品牌建设研究[D].泰安:山东农业大学,2012.
[10]刘玉忠.“互联网+农业”现代农业发展研究[J].创新科技,2015(7):69-72.
[11]苏毅清,游玉婷,王志刚.农村一二三产业融合发展:理论探讨、现状分析与对策建议[J].中国软科学,2016(8):17-28.
[12]王雅鹏,吕明,范俊楠,等.我国现代农业科技创新体系构建:特征、现实困境与优化路径[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(2):161-167.
[13]邓远建,肖锐,严立冬.绿色农业产地环境的生态补偿政策绩效评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(1):120-126.
[14]杨易,张倩,王先忠,等.中国农业国际合作机制的发展现状、问题及政策建议[J].世界农业,2012(8):41-44,61.