基于空间计量的广东省对外经济空间σ&β收敛性和集聚效应研究
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摘要
以1997年至2015年广东省21个市对外经济发展为研究样本,基于空间计量经济学分析框架,实证研究了广东省对外经济的空间收敛性和集聚效应.首先基于ESDA方法分析了广东省对外经济空间特征和相关性,然后基于空间计量模型研究了广东省对外经济σ&β收敛性,最后基于熵的多样性指数实证分析了广东省对外经济总体集聚效应及分组集聚效应变化过程.从实证分析中可以得出以下结论:1)虽然广东省对外经济绝对量分布仍以"珠三角"区域为主,但是"珠三角"周边区域增速占据优势地位;2)2005年以前对外经济空间相关性具有明显增强趋势,2005年以后仍保持空间相关性,但是增强趋势放缓;3)广东省对外经济存在条件β收敛性和绝对β收敛性,2005年以后具有σ收敛性,并且考虑空间相关影响效应后σ&β收敛性明显增强;4)广东省"珠三角"9市区域对外经济发展存在集聚效应,非"珠三角"区域对外经济发展存在扩散效应,组间熵表明两组之间对外经济发展存在明显集聚效应,广东省对外经济总体存在集聚效应.
The spatial convergence and agglomeration effect of External Economic of GuangDong were researched based on spatial econometrics. The spatial character and relativity were studied based on EADA, then the σ&β convergence of Guangdong external economic was analyzed based on spatial econometrics model, lastly,the agglomeration effect was studied through the entropy index. The empirical results show the following conclusions:1) The spatial distribution of volume is dominant in Pearl River Delta, but the around of Pearl River Delta have advantage on the speed up; 2) There is spatial relations in Guangdong external economic before 2005 and the speed up became slowly after 2005; 3) There are absolute and conditional β convergence in the sample period and ρ convergence after 2005, the σ&β convergence become enhanced according to the spatial relations; 4) There is agglomeration effect on the external economic of 9 cities in Pearl River Delta and diffusion effect on the other cities in Guangdong, there is agglomeration effect on the external economic of the whole Guangdong because of the agglomeration between the two groups.
The spatial convergence and agglomeration effect of External Economic of GuangDong were researched based on spatial econometrics. The spatial character and relativity were studied based on EADA, then the σ&β convergence of Guangdong external economic was analyzed based on spatial econometrics model, lastly,the agglomeration effect was studied through the entropy index. The empirical results show the following conclusions:1) The spatial distribution of volume is dominant in Pearl River Delta, but the around of Pearl River Delta have advantage on the speed up; 2) There is spatial relations in Guangdong external economic before 2005 and the speed up became slowly after 2005; 3) There are absolute and conditional β convergence in the sample period and ρ convergence after 2005, the σ&β convergence become enhanced according to the spatial relations; 4) There is agglomeration effect on the external economic of 9 cities in Pearl River Delta and diffusion effect on the other cities in Guangdong, there is agglomeration effect on the external economic of the whole Guangdong because of the agglomeration between the two groups.
引文
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[2]Chun-Yu Ho,Wei Wang,Jihai Yu.Growth spillover through trade:A spatial dynamic panel data approach[J].Economics Letters,2013,120:450-453.
[3]Augustine C A.Imports and exports in 50 countries Tests of cointegration and structural breaks[J].International Review of Economics and Finance,2002,11:101-115.
[4]Andrea F,Giuseppe V M.International trade and R&D spillovers[J].Journal of International Economics,2015,96:1 38-149.
[5]Juliano A,Priscilla B,Marcelo C M.Is the convergence of the manufacturing sector unconditional?Economi A,2015,16:273-294.
[6]Pamina K,Florian M,Sandra P.Local export spillovers in France[J].European Economic Review,2010,54:622-641.
[7]Alain K,Francisco N.Recent French relative export performance:Is there a competitiveness problem?[J].Economic Modelling,2012,29:1408-1435.
[8]Claustre B,Timothy J K.Trade,growth,and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2010,13:487-513.
[9]Jun W,Kathy B,Peter M.Trade-facilitated technology spillovers in energy productivity convergence processes across EU countries[J].Energy Economics,2015,48:253-264.
[10]Yir-Hueih Luh,Wun-Ji Jiang,Szu-Chi Huang.Trade-related spillovers and industrial competitiveness:Exploring the linkages for OECD countries[J].Economic Modelling,2016,54:309-325.
[11]Ziliang Deng,Rod F,Adam Blake.Trading market access for technology?Tax incentives,foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers in China[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2012,34:675-690.
[12]张中元.对外经济开放、金融危机对中国资本配置效率的影响[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013(9):87-99.
[13]毛其淋,盛斌.对外经济开放、区域市场整合与全要素生产率[J].经济学(季刊),2011,11(1):181-201.
[14]李梨.加快推进我国对外经济发展方式转变的战略选择[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(3):7-15.
[15]包群.是否存在出口外溢的结构性差异一多部门外溢模型及实证[J].南开经济研究,2007(4):58-71.
[16]胡兵,乔晶.中国出口贸易外溢效应的分类检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(12):83-95.
[17]徐新华,俞开江,杨高宇.人民币“双率”调整的贸易收支效应研究[J].经济学动态,2010(12):60-65.
[18]刘正良,刘厚俊.出口贸易的外溢效应及中国数据检验一基于贸易方式和经济区域视角的研究[J].世界经济研究,2008(12):56-86.
[19]程恩富,侯为民.转变对外经济发展方式的“新开放策论”(上)[J].当代经济研究,2011(4):37-45.
[20]关伟,朱海飞.基于ESDA的辽宁省县际经济差异时空分析[J].地理研究,2011,30(11):2009-2016.
[21]李向东,李南,季庆庆.中国高技术产业创新效率区域差异变动趋势[J].南京理工大学学报,2014,38(4):566-574.
[22]林光平,龙志和.空间经济计量:理论与实证[M].北京:科学出版社,2014:68-74.
[23]Attaran Mohsen,Zwick Martin.Entropy and other measures of industrial diversification[J].Quarterly Journal of Business&Economics,1987,4:17-34.