中美贸易摩擦背景下中国对外经济发展策略
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摘要
美国认为,在政治上,中国正在挑战美国的地缘政治优势,并试图打破世界秩序;在经济上,中国逐步发展为美国"同生态位"的竞争对手;在军事、高科技和工业技术上,美国正受到中国的威胁。特朗普基本沿袭了里根时期的冷战思维与零和博弈观念,其主导思想是"美国优先"与"美国重获优势地位"。特朗普政府在其发布的首份《国家安全战略》中,将中国定位为美国首要的战略竞争对手,中美贸易摩擦正是美国政府企图遏制中国崛起的战略之一,从贸易战到经济战再升级为全面冷战可能是其真实意图。中美贸易谈判将是一个中长期的过程,因此要做好打持久战的准备,谈判模式应该是边谈边签、边谈边生效、边谈边升级。在美国推行强权政治和贸易保护主义政策的大背景下,我国应以中美共同利益为突破点,开展以市场为导向的竞争政策改革;在"一带一路"倡议引领下,营造和谐稳定的经贸环境,开创国际经济合作新局面;深化中拉、中非经济合作,彰显"一带一路"龙头实力;推动亚洲经济一体化,构建开放创新的亚洲;加快经济结构性改革,从过去的投资、出口导向型经济转为消费导向型经济;继续扩大开放,在与世界的互利共赢合作中实现自主创新,从而促进世界经济可持续发展,推进构建"人类命运共同体"。
America believes that,in terms of politics,China is challenging its geopolitial advantages,and trying to break through the world order;in terms of economy,China is gradually becoming its competitor with the the same ecological niche;in terms of military,high-tech,and industrial issues,America is under the threat from China.The dominant way of thinking of Trump administration is "America First" and "America will regain the dominant position".In the first National Security Strategy released by Trump administration,China is defined as America’s first strategic competitor;China-Us trade war is just one of the strategies that can be used to contain China’s rise;and upgrading the trade war to comprehensive cold war could be America’s real intention.The trade negotiation between China and America will be a long-term process that we have to prepare for;the pattern of this negotiation should be signing the contract while talking,making the contract to be effective while talking,and upgrading while talking.Under the background of America’s power politics and protectionism,China should,first,take the common interests of China and America as the break though point,and take market as the orientation to reform competition related policy;second,China should,with the guidance of the Belt and Road Initiative,create the harmonious and stable economic and trade environment,and embark on a new stage of international economic cooperation;third,China should deepen economic cooperation with Latin American and Caribbean States,and that with Africa to demonstrate the strength of China,the leader of the Belt and Road;fourth,China should promote Asian economic integration,and build the open and innovative new Asia;fifth,China should accelerate economic structural reform,and transform the investment-and export-oriented economy to the consumption-oriented economy;and sixth,China should continue to expand opening up,realize independent innovation in cooperating with the world for win-win results,promote the sustainable development of the world economy,and promote a community with a shared future for mankind.
America believes that,in terms of politics,China is challenging its geopolitial advantages,and trying to break through the world order;in terms of economy,China is gradually becoming its competitor with the the same ecological niche;in terms of military,high-tech,and industrial issues,America is under the threat from China.The dominant way of thinking of Trump administration is "America First" and "America will regain the dominant position".In the first National Security Strategy released by Trump administration,China is defined as America’s first strategic competitor;China-Us trade war is just one of the strategies that can be used to contain China’s rise;and upgrading the trade war to comprehensive cold war could be America’s real intention.The trade negotiation between China and America will be a long-term process that we have to prepare for;the pattern of this negotiation should be signing the contract while talking,making the contract to be effective while talking,and upgrading while talking.Under the background of America’s power politics and protectionism,China should,first,take the common interests of China and America as the break though point,and take market as the orientation to reform competition related policy;second,China should,with the guidance of the Belt and Road Initiative,create the harmonious and stable economic and trade environment,and embark on a new stage of international economic cooperation;third,China should deepen economic cooperation with Latin American and Caribbean States,and that with Africa to demonstrate the strength of China,the leader of the Belt and Road;fourth,China should promote Asian economic integration,and build the open and innovative new Asia;fifth,China should accelerate economic structural reform,and transform the investment-and export-oriented economy to the consumption-oriented economy;and sixth,China should continue to expand opening up,realize independent innovation in cooperating with the world for win-win results,promote the sustainable development of the world economy,and promote a community with a shared future for mankind.
引文
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[22]张辛欣,贾远琨,许晟,等.在开放中汇聚强劲动能——从首届进博会观察全球创新发展走向[EB/OL].(2018-11-09)[2018-12-09]. http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-11/09/c_1123689522.htm.
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[2]谢地,张巩.中美贸易摩擦的政治经济学分析[J].政治经济学评论,2018(5):121-143.
[3]财富证券研究发展中心.中美贸易战对中国经济影响评估[R].长沙:财富证券有限责任公司,2018-11-05.
[4]张宇燕,冯维江.从“接触”到“规锁”:美国对华战略意图及中美博弈的四种前景[J].清华金融评论,2018(7):24-25.
[5]亨利·保尔森.如果中美达不成共识,经济铁幕将降临[EB/OL].(2018-11-08)[2018-12-09].https://weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309634303999196092707&sudaref=www.baidu.com&display=0&retcode=6102.
[6]孙彬彬,周泽平.失去了众议院意味着什么?[EB/OL].(2018-11-08)[2018-12-09].https://www.gelonghui.com/p/218315.
[7]朱启兵.中美在焦虑中暗自较劲[R].香港:中银国际证券,2018-10-14.
[8]李·布兰斯特德.日美贸易战镜鉴[J].中国经济报告,2018(7):97-98.
[9]马弘,滕越,徐嫄.中美贸易摩擦升级战略思考——基于日本经验的视角[J].国际贸易,2018(3):32-40.
[10]沈新凤,尤春野,曹哲亮.由美苏冷战反观中美贸易战——从经济角度出发[R].长春:东北证券,2018-09-21.
[11]习近平.共同驾驶世界经济大船驶向更加美好的彼岸[EB/OL].(2018-11-18)[2018-12-09].https://mp.weixin.q q.com/s/BLiRcaQoLFk0JPuSTl7TPQ.
[12]钟山.共建一带一路发展开放型世界经济[N].人民日报,2017-06-06(07).
[13]上海浦山新金融发展基金会课题组.G20峰会前瞻:中美贸易谈判不能指望毕其功于一役[EB/OL].(2018-11-29)[2018-12-09]. http://opinion.caixin.com/2018-11-29/101353385.html.
[14]谢亚轩,罗云峰,张一平,等.美国改善,欧英日中全面走弱——9月全球经济数据综述[R].深圳:招商证券,2018-11-22.
[15]中国社科院经济所.中日关系重构的日本视角[EB/OL].(2018-11-05)[2018-11-09].http://www.sohu.com/a/273389581_786236.
[16]习近平.携手共命运同心促发展——在2018年中非合作论坛北京峰会开幕式上的主旨讲话[EB/OL](2018-09-03)[2018-12-09].http://www.focac2018.com/528.shtml.
[17]CEBRI.Tendências recentes na política e economia da China[EB/OL].(2018-05-07)[2018-05-07].http://www.cebri.org/portal/publicacoes/cebri-artigos/tendencias-recentesna-politica-e-economia-da-china.
[18]王飞.拉美智库对新时代中国特色大国外交的认知述评—基于“一带一路”倡议和人类命运共同体的研究分析[J].国外社会科学,2018(5):127-135.
[19]李向阳.亚洲区域经济一体化的“缺位”与“一带一路”的发展导向[J].中国社会科学,2018(8):33-43.
[20]孙豪.消费主导型大国:特征、测度及政策[J].社会科学,2015(10):36-46.
[21]郭其友,芦丽静.经济持续增长动力的转变——消费主导型增长的国际经验与借鉴[J].中山大学学报(社会科学版),2009(2):190-197.
[22]张辛欣,贾远琨,许晟,等.在开放中汇聚强劲动能——从首届进博会观察全球创新发展走向[EB/OL].(2018-11-09)[2018-12-09]. http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-11/09/c_1123689522.htm.
[23]中共中央文献研究室.习近平关于科技创新论述摘编[M].北京:中央文献出版社,2016:2.