城市房价与家庭消费支出——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证研究
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摘要
为了探究住房价格的变动是否会对家庭消费支出产生影响,本文首先借由投入产出价格模型,研究了我国最具代表性的25个省市地区住房价格波动与居民主要消费品价格变化的关系。并参考CFPS2017年的数据,在QUAIDS模型上引入不同收入水平、不同户主职业的特征变量,探析不同类型和层次消费品的希克斯需求和马歇尔需求在房地产价格变化时的变动幅度,发现住房价格上涨不利于家庭对八种类型和三种层次消费品的希克斯需求和马歇尔需求的升级。通过对不同家庭的福利变化情况分析,发现随着住房价格的波动,不同收入水平以及从事不同行业户主的家庭所享受的福利也发生了不同程度的变化。因此,为了优化消费结构升级并促进和谐社会发展,政府应该根据家庭所在不同收入
In order to explore whether the change of housing price will have an impact on the level of household consumption expenditure, this paper first studies the relationship between housing price fluctuations and the changes of residents' major consumer goods prices in the 25 most representative provinces, cities and regions in China through the construction of input-output price model. Then, according to the data of CFPS in2017, the characteristic variables of different income levels and different householder's occupations were introduced into the QUAIDS model. Based on the analysis of the fluctuation range of Hicks' demand and Marshall's demand for different types and levels of consumer goods in the real estate price changes, it is found that the increase of housing price is not conducive to the upgrading of Hicks' demand and Marshall's demand for eight types and three levels of consumer goods. Finally, through the analysis of the welfare changes of different families, it is found that with the fluctuation of housing price, the welfare enjoyed by families with different income levels and owners in different industries also changes to different degrees. Therefore, in order to optimize the upgrading of consumption structure and promote the development of a harmonious society, the government should divide the market according to the different income levels of the family and different occupations of householders, and give priority to stablizing the housing price of the families with high income and families whose householder's occupations are in primary industry.
In order to explore whether the change of housing price will have an impact on the level of household consumption expenditure, this paper first studies the relationship between housing price fluctuations and the changes of residents' major consumer goods prices in the 25 most representative provinces, cities and regions in China through the construction of input-output price model. Then, according to the data of CFPS in2017, the characteristic variables of different income levels and different householder's occupations were introduced into the QUAIDS model. Based on the analysis of the fluctuation range of Hicks' demand and Marshall's demand for different types and levels of consumer goods in the real estate price changes, it is found that the increase of housing price is not conducive to the upgrading of Hicks' demand and Marshall's demand for eight types and three levels of consumer goods. Finally, through the analysis of the welfare changes of different families, it is found that with the fluctuation of housing price, the welfare enjoyed by families with different income levels and owners in different industries also changes to different degrees. Therefore, in order to optimize the upgrading of consumption structure and promote the development of a harmonious society, the government should divide the market according to the different income levels of the family and different occupations of householders, and give priority to stablizing the housing price of the families with high income and families whose householder's occupations are in primary industry.
引文
[1]杨鑫,穆月英.不同地区城镇居民收入对食品消费水足迹的影响---基于QUAIDS模型[J].资源科学,2018,(5):1026-1039.
[2]方齐云,胡飞.城市房价与家庭消费支出-----基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证研究[J].江西财经大学学报,2018,(4):33-42.
[3]刘自敏,张昕竹,方燕.非线性定价、家庭人口特征和收入再分配效应调整[J].统计研究,2015,(7):37-44.
[4]王勇.食品价格波动对家庭消费的影响研究---基于CFPS2014数据的分析[J].调研世界,2018,(8):40-48.
[5]Bai,J.,Zhang,C.,Wahl,T.,and Seale,J.J.Dining out,the Missing Food Consumption in China[J].Applied Economics Letters,2016,7(15):1-4.
[6]Yen,S.T.,and Lin,B.H.A Sample Selection Approach to Censored Demand Systems[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2010,88(3):742-749.
[7]Alem,S.Household-Level Consumption in Urban Ethiopia:The Effects of a Large Food Price Shock[J].World Development,2011,40(1):146-162.
[8]谭涛,张燕媛,唐若迪,等.中国农村居民家庭消费结构分析:基于QUAIDS模型的两阶段一致估计[J].中国农村经济,2014,(2):45-49.
[9]张品一.基于QUAIDS模型的中国城镇居民食品需求异质性研究[J].统计与决策,2013,(23):128-130.
[10]孔哲礼,李辉.基于QUAIDS模型的中国棉花需求研究[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2016,(6):5-15.
[2]方齐云,胡飞.城市房价与家庭消费支出-----基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证研究[J].江西财经大学学报,2018,(4):33-42.
[3]刘自敏,张昕竹,方燕.非线性定价、家庭人口特征和收入再分配效应调整[J].统计研究,2015,(7):37-44.
[4]王勇.食品价格波动对家庭消费的影响研究---基于CFPS2014数据的分析[J].调研世界,2018,(8):40-48.
[5]Bai,J.,Zhang,C.,Wahl,T.,and Seale,J.J.Dining out,the Missing Food Consumption in China[J].Applied Economics Letters,2016,7(15):1-4.
[6]Yen,S.T.,and Lin,B.H.A Sample Selection Approach to Censored Demand Systems[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2010,88(3):742-749.
[7]Alem,S.Household-Level Consumption in Urban Ethiopia:The Effects of a Large Food Price Shock[J].World Development,2011,40(1):146-162.
[8]谭涛,张燕媛,唐若迪,等.中国农村居民家庭消费结构分析:基于QUAIDS模型的两阶段一致估计[J].中国农村经济,2014,(2):45-49.
[9]张品一.基于QUAIDS模型的中国城镇居民食品需求异质性研究[J].统计与决策,2013,(23):128-130.
[10]孔哲礼,李辉.基于QUAIDS模型的中国棉花需求研究[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2016,(6):5-15.