土地生态系统脆弱性时空演化特征及影响因素——以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例
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摘要
基于BP人工神经网络模型,对黄河三角洲高效生态经济区土地生态系统脆弱性进行综合评价和时空演化分析,并借助灰色关联度模型探究其影响因素.结果表明:研究区土地生态系统脆弱性从2005年的1.244降低至2016年的1.113,脆弱性逐步改善;脆弱性由西到东、由内陆到沿海逐渐加剧,并表现出脆弱性平稳型和脆弱性渐低型2个演化特征;地均工业废水排放量、盐碱荒地面积比重、土地利用程度、建成区绿化覆盖率、节能环保支出占财政支出的比重是系统脆弱性的主要影响因素.因此,降低土地生态系统脆弱性的政策着力点应该集中在生态修复、优化土地利用结构和节能减排等方面.
The BP artificial neural network model was used to conduct comprehensive evaluations and spatio-temporal evolution analyses of land ecosystem vulnerability in the efficiency eco-economic zone of the Yellow River Delta, then the grey correlation degree model was applied to explore the influencing factors. The results showed that the land ecosystem vulnerability decreased to 1.113 in 2016 from 1.244 in 2005 in the study area, and improved gradually. The vulnerability gradually increased from the west to the east and from the inland to the coastal, which showed two evolutionary characteristics: steady vulnerability type and lower vulnerability type. Average industrial wastewater discharge, proportion of saline-alkali wasteland, the degree of land use, the green coverage of built-up areas, and the proportion of energy-saving and environmental protection expenditures to fiscal expenditures were the main influencing factors of systemic vulnerability. Therefore, the policy focus of reducing the vulnerability of land ecosystems should be on ecological restoration, land utilization structure optimization, energy conservation and emission reduction.
The BP artificial neural network model was used to conduct comprehensive evaluations and spatio-temporal evolution analyses of land ecosystem vulnerability in the efficiency eco-economic zone of the Yellow River Delta, then the grey correlation degree model was applied to explore the influencing factors. The results showed that the land ecosystem vulnerability decreased to 1.113 in 2016 from 1.244 in 2005 in the study area, and improved gradually. The vulnerability gradually increased from the west to the east and from the inland to the coastal, which showed two evolutionary characteristics: steady vulnerability type and lower vulnerability type. Average industrial wastewater discharge, proportion of saline-alkali wasteland, the degree of land use, the green coverage of built-up areas, and the proportion of energy-saving and environmental protection expenditures to fiscal expenditures were the main influencing factors of systemic vulnerability. Therefore, the policy focus of reducing the vulnerability of land ecosystems should be on ecological restoration, land utilization structure optimization, energy conservation and emission reduction.
引文
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[24]程钰,王亚平,张玉泽,等.黄河三角洲地区人地关系演变趋势及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):83-89,97.Cheng Y,Wang Y P,Zhang Y Z,et al.The evolution trend and driving factors of man-land relationship about the Yellow River Delta Area[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(2):83-89,97.
[25]董会忠,吴朋,万里洋.基于NC-AHP的区域生态安全评价与预警--以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(9):79-84,88.Dong H Z,Wu P,Wan L Y.Evaluation and early-warning of regional ecological security based on NC-AHP:A case study of the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow river Delta[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2016,36(9):79-84,88.
[26]许倍慎,周勇,徐理,等.湖北省潜江市土地生态脆弱性时空分析[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(7):80-85.Xu B S,Zhou Y,Xu L,et al.Spatio-temporal analysis on the land ecological vulnerability in Qianjiang City,Hubei Province[J].China Land Science,2011,25(7):80-85.
[27]Pei H,Fang S F,Lin L,et al.Methods and applications for ecological vulnerability evaluation in a hyper-arid oasis:a case study of the Turpan Oasis,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,74(2):1449-1461.
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[29]Robert H N.Theory of the backpropagation neural network[C].The International Joint Conference on Neural Networks,1989:593-605.
[30]谭学瑞,邓聚龙.灰色关联分析:多因素统计分析新方法[J].统计研究,1995,(3):46-48.Tan X R,Deng J L.Gray correlation analysis:A new method of multivariate statistical analysis[J].Statistical Research,1995(3):46-48.
[31]2017山东统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017:45-236.Shandong statistical yearbook:2017[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017:45-236.
[32]山东省环境保护厅.2016山东省环境状况公报[EB/OL].http://xxgk.sdein.gov.cn/xxgkml/hjzkgb/201706/t20170602_1122660.html,2017-06-02.Environmental Protection Department of Shandong Province.Shandong Environmental State Bulletin:2016[EB/OL].http://xxgk.sdein.gov.cn/xxgkml/hjzkgb/201706/t20170602_1122660.html,2017-06-02.
[2]程钰,王亚平,张玉泽,等.黄河三角洲地区人地关系演变趋势及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):83-89,97.Cheng Y,Wang Y P,Zhang Y Z,et al.The evolution trend and driving factors of man-land relationship about the Yellow River Delta Area[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(2):83-89,97.
[3]Timmerman P.Vulnerability,resilience and the collapse of society[R].Toronto:Institute for Environmental Studies,University of Toronto,1981.
[4]史培军,王静爱,陈婧,等.当代地理学之人地相互作用研究的趋向--全球变化人类行为计划(IHDP)第六届开放会议透视[J].地理学报,2006,61(2):115-126.Shi P J,Wang J A,Chen J,et al.The future of human-environment interaction research in geography:lessons from the 6th Open Meeting of IHDP[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2006,61(2):115-126.
[5]李鹤.东北地区矿业城市脆弱性特征与对策研究[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(5):78-83.Li H.Vulnerability of mining cities in Northeast China and its control measures[J].Areal Research and Development,2011,30(5):78-83.
[6]Gallopín G C.Linkages between vulnerability,resilience,and adaptive capacity[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):293-303.
[7]徐君,李贵芳,王育红.生态脆弱性国内外研究综述与展望[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(4):149-162.Xu J,Li G F,Wang Y H.Review and prospect of research on ecological vulnerability in China and abroad[J].East China Economic Management,2016,30(4):149-162.
[8]Risser P G.The status of the science examining ecotones[J].Bioscience,1995,45(5):318-325.
[9]牛文元.生态环境脆弱带ECOTONE的基础判定[J].生态学报,1989,9(2):97-105.Niu W Y.The discriminatory index with regard to the weakness,overlapness,and breadth of ECOTONE[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,1989,9(2):97-105.
[10]赵珂,饶懿,王丽丽,等.西南地区生态脆弱性评价研究--以云南、贵州为例[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2004,15(2):38-42.Zhao K,Rao Y,Wang L L,et al.Evaluation of ecological fragility in soutwest of China[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2004,15(2):38-42.
[11]安宏锋,徐浩,安宁,等.喀斯特山区生态环境脆弱性综合评价--以贵州省黔中地区为例[J].环境影响评价,2016,38(4):51-56.An H F,Xu H,An N,et al.Comprehensive evaluation of ecoenvironmental vulnerability in Karst Mountain areas:A case study of the central region of Guizhou province[J].Environmental Impact Assessment,2016,38(4):51-56.
[12]IPCC.Climate change 2001:impacts,adaptation and vulnerability[R].United Kingdom:Cambridge University Press,2001:75-103.
[13]赵源,黄成敏,温军会.土地系统脆弱性研究进展和展望[J].中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(5):121-127.Zhao Y,Huang C M,Wen J H.Research progress and prospect of land system vulnerability[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2013,34(5):121-127.
[14]苏飞,张平宇.中国区域能源安全供给脆弱性分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(6):94-99.Su F,Zhang P Y.Vulnerability analysis of regional energy security supply in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2008,18(6):94-99.
[15]王肖敏,彭飞,韩增林.基于SPA的海洋产业系统脆弱性与障碍因素研究--以中国沿海地区为例[J].资源开发与市场,2015,31(2):166-171.Wang X M,Peng F,Han Z L.Analysis of marine industrial system vulnerability and obstacle factors based on Set Pair Analysis:A case study of the coastal provinces of China[J].Resource Development&Market,2015,31(2):166-171.
[16]裴欢,王晓妍,房世峰.基于DEA的中国农业旱灾脆弱性评价及时空演变分析[J].灾害学,2015,30(2):64-69.Pei H,Wang X Y,Fang S F.Study on temporal-spatial evolution of agricultural drought vulnerability of China based on DEA mode[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(2):64-69.
[17]Alcamo J,Acosta-Michlik L,Carius A,et al.A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought[J].Regional Environmental Change,2008,8(4):137-149.
[18]徐留兴,常毅,赵源.基于生态足迹的荥经县土地系统脆弱性分析[J].安徽农业科学,2015,43(31):14-17.Xu L X,Chang Y,Zhao Y.Land system vulnerability analysis based on ecological footprint in Yingjing[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2015,43(31):14-17.
[19]孟超,胡健.基于BP神经网络的中国煤炭安全评价研究[J].科研管理,2016,37(8):153-160.Meng C,Hu J.A research on China’s coal mine safety evaluation based on BP neural network[J].Science Research Management,2016,37(8):153-160.
[20]Salvati L,Zitti M.Assessing the impact of ecological and economic factors on land degradation vulnerability through multiway analysis[J].Ecological Indicators,2009,9(2):357-363.
[21]胡喜生,洪伟,吴承祯,等.福州市土地生态系统服务时空分异特征[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(5):881-888.Hu X S,Hong W,Wu C Z,et al.Spatiotemporal differentiation of land eco-system service in Fuzhou City[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(5):881-888.
[22]Metzger M J,Rounsevell M D A,Acosta-Michlik L,et al.The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change[J].Ecosystems and Environment,2006,114(1):69-85.
[23]盛中华,董会忠,殷秀清,等.基于熵权可拓模型的土地利用规划环境影响评价--以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例[J].资源开发与市场,2017,33(12):1433-1438.Sheng Z H,Dong H Z,Yin X Q,et al.Environmental Impact Assessment of land use planning based on entropy weight and extension model:A case study in Yellow River Delta Efficient Eco-economic Zone[J].Resource Development&Market,2017,33(12):1433-1438.
[24]程钰,王亚平,张玉泽,等.黄河三角洲地区人地关系演变趋势及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):83-89,97.Cheng Y,Wang Y P,Zhang Y Z,et al.The evolution trend and driving factors of man-land relationship about the Yellow River Delta Area[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(2):83-89,97.
[25]董会忠,吴朋,万里洋.基于NC-AHP的区域生态安全评价与预警--以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例[J].科技管理研究,2016,36(9):79-84,88.Dong H Z,Wu P,Wan L Y.Evaluation and early-warning of regional ecological security based on NC-AHP:A case study of the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow river Delta[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2016,36(9):79-84,88.
[26]许倍慎,周勇,徐理,等.湖北省潜江市土地生态脆弱性时空分析[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(7):80-85.Xu B S,Zhou Y,Xu L,et al.Spatio-temporal analysis on the land ecological vulnerability in Qianjiang City,Hubei Province[J].China Land Science,2011,25(7):80-85.
[27]Pei H,Fang S F,Lin L,et al.Methods and applications for ecological vulnerability evaluation in a hyper-arid oasis:a case study of the Turpan Oasis,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2015,74(2):1449-1461.
[28]Widrow B D.Learning in artificial neural networks a statistical perspeetive[J].Neural Computation,1989,1(4):425-464.
[29]Robert H N.Theory of the backpropagation neural network[C].The International Joint Conference on Neural Networks,1989:593-605.
[30]谭学瑞,邓聚龙.灰色关联分析:多因素统计分析新方法[J].统计研究,1995,(3):46-48.Tan X R,Deng J L.Gray correlation analysis:A new method of multivariate statistical analysis[J].Statistical Research,1995(3):46-48.
[31]2017山东统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017:45-236.Shandong statistical yearbook:2017[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017:45-236.
[32]山东省环境保护厅.2016山东省环境状况公报[EB/OL].http://xxgk.sdein.gov.cn/xxgkml/hjzkgb/201706/t20170602_1122660.html,2017-06-02.Environmental Protection Department of Shandong Province.Shandong Environmental State Bulletin:2016[EB/OL].http://xxgk.sdein.gov.cn/xxgkml/hjzkgb/201706/t20170602_1122660.html,2017-06-02.