贸易网络结构、企业异质性与出口行为决策
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摘要
本文基于2000—2007年中国海关数据库和中国工业企业数据库的匹配数据,采用网络分析方法测算了企业层面的贸易网络结构,构建计量模型实证研究了贸易网络结构对企业出口市场的进入与退出行为、贸易目的国的选择行为以及出口生存效应一系列出口行为决策的影响。本文的研究发现:强联结的贸易关系网络可以显著降低企业的信息搜寻成本,降低企业所面临的市场不确定性以及企业出口所面临的沉没成本,从而促进企业的市场进入,尤其有助于企业进入高收入水平国家。此外,本文采用生存分析模型就贸易网络结构对企业出口的生存行为进行分析发现,贸易网络结构的增强促使企业更好地维持其在新市场的贸易关系,降低企业的市场退出风险,从而显著增加其出口持续时间。因此,贸易网络结构的增强无论在出口的短期效应,还是在生存效应方面都能够显著促进企业的出口行为,贸易网络结构是企业异质性的重要来源。
引文
Ackerberg,D.A.,K.Caves and G.Frazer,2015,“Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators,”Econometrica,83(6):2411-2451.
Ahn,J.B.,A.K.Khandelwal and S.J.Wei,2011,“The Role of Intermediaries in Facilitating Trade,”Journal of International Economics,84(1):73-85.
Albornoz,F.,H.Corcos,G.Corcos and E.Ornelas,2012,“Sequential Exporting,”Journal of International Economics,88(1):17-31.
Anderson,J.E.,Van Wincoop,2003,“Gravity with Gravitas:A Solution to the Border Puzzle,”American Economic Review,93(1):170-192.
Arthur,J.,2003,“On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment,”Review of Economic Studies,57(2):279-298.
Baldwin,R.E.and P.R.Krugman,1989,“Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,104(4):635-654.
Bastos,P.,J.Silva and E.Verhoogen,2018,“Export Destination and Input Prices,”American Economic Review,108(2):353-392.
Bernard,A.B.,S.J.Redding and P.K.Schott,2007,“Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms,”Review of Economic Sdudies,74(1):31-66.
Bernard,A.B.,S.J.Redding and P.K.Schott,2011,“Multi-product Firms and Trade Liberalization,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,126(3):1271-1318.
Besede,T.,2008,“A Search Cost Perspective on Formation and Duration of Trade,”Review of International Economics,16(5):835-849.
Besede,T.and T.J.Prusa,2006a,“Ins,Outs,and the Duration of Trade,”Canadian Journal of Economics,39,266-295.
Besede,T.and T.J.Prusa,2006b,“Product Differentiation and Duration of US Import Trade,”Journal of International Economics,70(2):339-358.
Besede,T.and T.J.Prusa,2011,“The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth,”Journal of Development Economics,96(2):371-379.
Bernard,A.B.,S.J.Redding and P.K.Schott,2007,“Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms,”Review of Economic Sdudies,74(1):31-66
Brandt,L.,J.Van Biesebroeck and Y.Zhang,2012,“Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing,”Journal of Development Economic,97(2):339-351.
Brenton,P.,C.Saborowski and E.V.Uexkull,2011,“What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows,”World Bank Economic Review,24(3):474-499.
Chaney,T.,2014,“The Network Structure of International Trade,”American Economic Review,104(11):3600-3634.
Combes,P.P.,M.Lafourcade and T.Mayer,2005,“The Trade-creating Effects of Business and Social Networks:Evidence from France,”Journal of International Economics,66(1):1-29.
Das,S.,M.J.Roberts and J.R.Tybout,2010,“Market Entry Costs,Producer Heterogeneity,and Export Dynamics,”Econometrica,75(3):837-873.
Eckel,C.,L.Iacovone,B.Javorcik and J.P.Neary,2015,“Multi-product Firms at Home and Away:Cost-versus QualityBased Competence,”Journal of International Economics,95(2):216-232.
Eckel,C.and J.P.Neary,2010,“Multi-Product Firms and Flexible Manufacturing in the Global Economy,”Review of Economic Studies,77(1):188-217.
Esteve-Perez,S.,F.Requena-Silvente and V.J.Pallardo-Lopez,2012,“The Duration of Firm-Destination Export Relationships:Evidence from Spain 1997-2006,”Economic Inquiry,51(1):159-180.
Goldberg,P.K.,A.K.Khandelwal,N.Pavcnik and P.Topalova,2010,“Multi-product Firms and Product Turnover in the Developing World:Evidence from India,”Review of Economics&Statistics,92(4):1042-1049
Gorg,H.,K.Richard and M.Balazs,2012,“What Makes a Successful Export?Evidence from Firm-Product Level Data,”Canadian Journal of Economics,45(4):1332-1368.
Hess,W.and M.Persson,2011,“Exploring the Duration of EU Imports,”Review of World Economics,147(4):665-689.
Hidalgo,C.A.,B.Klinger,A.L.Barabási and R.Hausmann,2007,“The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations,”American Association for the Advancement of Science,317(5837):482-487.
Hopenhayn,H.,1992,“Entry,Exit,and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium,”Econometrica,60(5):1127-1150.
Iacovone,L.and B.S.Javorcik,2010,“Multi-Product Exproters:Product Churning,Uncertainty and Export Discoveries,”Economic Journal,120(544):481-499.
Jachson,M.O.and W.R.Brian,2007,“Meeting Strangers and Friends of Friends:How Random Are Social Networks?”American Economic Review,97(3):890-915.
Kawakami,A.and T.Miyagawa,2013,“Product Switching and Firm Performance in Japan-Empirical Analysis Based on the Census of Manufacturers,”Public Policy Review,9(2):287-314.
Levinsohn,J.and A.Petrin,2003,“Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables,”The Review of Economic Studies,70(2):317-342.
Melitz,M.J.,2003,“The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,”Econometrica,71(6),1695-1725.
Rauch,J.E.and V.Trindade,2002,“Ethnic Chinese Networks in International Trade,”Review of Economics and Statistics,84(1):116-130.
Volpe,C.and J.Carballo,2008,“Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries:Does it Matter How They Diversify?”Clobalization,Competitivness and Governability,2,30-49.
陈勇兵、李燕和周世民,2012,《中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素》,《经济研究》第7期48-61页。
戴翔和张二震,2016,《全球价值链分工演进与中国外贸失速之“谜”》,《经济学家》第1期75-82页。
蒋灵多和陈勇兵,2015,《出口企业的产品异质性与出口持续时间》,《世界经济》第7期3-26页。
毛其淋和盛斌,2013,《中国制造业企业的进入退出与生产率动态演化》,《经济研究》第4期16-29页。
叶宁华、包群和张柏伟,2015,《进入、退出与中国企业出口的动态序贯决策》,《世界经济》第2期86-111页。
(1)本文采用Ackerberg et al.(2015)的新方法来测算企业层面的TFP,Ackerberg et al.(2015)提出在OP和LP方法中,均存在“函数相关性”问题,即其中劳动力是其他变量的确定函数,因此不能估计出劳动力的系数。基于此,Ackerberg et al.提出了解决“函数相关性”的DP方法,即把劳动力因素引入投资需求或者中间品需求函数中(而在OP和LP方法的投资需求函数和中间品需求函数中并没有相应引入劳动力因素)。
(2)本文将企业生产率因素引入生存分析模型,旨在检验叶华宁等(2015)的结论。叶华宁(2015)研究发现,企业的确需要一生产率优势来克服出口市场的进入成本,但企业的初始生产率优势无法在企业长期出口决策中得以维持。
(1)表中仅列出了重要变量的估计结果,企业层面的其他特征变量并没有在表中列出,如有疑问,请与作者联系。
(1)本文中使用样本初期的人均GDP信息来构造指标,若在2000年目的国人均GDP高于中国,则取值为1,否则取值为0。
(1)见Bastos and Verhoogen(2018)。
Ahn,J.B.,A.K.Khandelwal and S.J.Wei,2011,“The Role of Intermediaries in Facilitating Trade,”Journal of International Economics,84(1):73-85.
Albornoz,F.,H.Corcos,G.Corcos and E.Ornelas,2012,“Sequential Exporting,”Journal of International Economics,88(1):17-31.
Anderson,J.E.,Van Wincoop,2003,“Gravity with Gravitas:A Solution to the Border Puzzle,”American Economic Review,93(1):170-192.
Arthur,J.,2003,“On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment,”Review of Economic Studies,57(2):279-298.
Baldwin,R.E.and P.R.Krugman,1989,“Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,104(4):635-654.
Bastos,P.,J.Silva and E.Verhoogen,2018,“Export Destination and Input Prices,”American Economic Review,108(2):353-392.
Bernard,A.B.,S.J.Redding and P.K.Schott,2007,“Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms,”Review of Economic Sdudies,74(1):31-66.
Bernard,A.B.,S.J.Redding and P.K.Schott,2011,“Multi-product Firms and Trade Liberalization,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,126(3):1271-1318.
Besede,T.,2008,“A Search Cost Perspective on Formation and Duration of Trade,”Review of International Economics,16(5):835-849.
Besede,T.and T.J.Prusa,2006a,“Ins,Outs,and the Duration of Trade,”Canadian Journal of Economics,39,266-295.
Besede,T.and T.J.Prusa,2006b,“Product Differentiation and Duration of US Import Trade,”Journal of International Economics,70(2):339-358.
Besede,T.and T.J.Prusa,2011,“The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth,”Journal of Development Economics,96(2):371-379.
Bernard,A.B.,S.J.Redding and P.K.Schott,2007,“Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms,”Review of Economic Sdudies,74(1):31-66
Brandt,L.,J.Van Biesebroeck and Y.Zhang,2012,“Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing,”Journal of Development Economic,97(2):339-351.
Brenton,P.,C.Saborowski and E.V.Uexkull,2011,“What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows,”World Bank Economic Review,24(3):474-499.
Chaney,T.,2014,“The Network Structure of International Trade,”American Economic Review,104(11):3600-3634.
Combes,P.P.,M.Lafourcade and T.Mayer,2005,“The Trade-creating Effects of Business and Social Networks:Evidence from France,”Journal of International Economics,66(1):1-29.
Das,S.,M.J.Roberts and J.R.Tybout,2010,“Market Entry Costs,Producer Heterogeneity,and Export Dynamics,”Econometrica,75(3):837-873.
Eckel,C.,L.Iacovone,B.Javorcik and J.P.Neary,2015,“Multi-product Firms at Home and Away:Cost-versus QualityBased Competence,”Journal of International Economics,95(2):216-232.
Eckel,C.and J.P.Neary,2010,“Multi-Product Firms and Flexible Manufacturing in the Global Economy,”Review of Economic Studies,77(1):188-217.
Esteve-Perez,S.,F.Requena-Silvente and V.J.Pallardo-Lopez,2012,“The Duration of Firm-Destination Export Relationships:Evidence from Spain 1997-2006,”Economic Inquiry,51(1):159-180.
Goldberg,P.K.,A.K.Khandelwal,N.Pavcnik and P.Topalova,2010,“Multi-product Firms and Product Turnover in the Developing World:Evidence from India,”Review of Economics&Statistics,92(4):1042-1049
Gorg,H.,K.Richard and M.Balazs,2012,“What Makes a Successful Export?Evidence from Firm-Product Level Data,”Canadian Journal of Economics,45(4):1332-1368.
Hess,W.and M.Persson,2011,“Exploring the Duration of EU Imports,”Review of World Economics,147(4):665-689.
Hidalgo,C.A.,B.Klinger,A.L.Barabási and R.Hausmann,2007,“The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations,”American Association for the Advancement of Science,317(5837):482-487.
Hopenhayn,H.,1992,“Entry,Exit,and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium,”Econometrica,60(5):1127-1150.
Iacovone,L.and B.S.Javorcik,2010,“Multi-Product Exproters:Product Churning,Uncertainty and Export Discoveries,”Economic Journal,120(544):481-499.
Jachson,M.O.and W.R.Brian,2007,“Meeting Strangers and Friends of Friends:How Random Are Social Networks?”American Economic Review,97(3):890-915.
Kawakami,A.and T.Miyagawa,2013,“Product Switching and Firm Performance in Japan-Empirical Analysis Based on the Census of Manufacturers,”Public Policy Review,9(2):287-314.
Levinsohn,J.and A.Petrin,2003,“Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables,”The Review of Economic Studies,70(2):317-342.
Melitz,M.J.,2003,“The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,”Econometrica,71(6),1695-1725.
Rauch,J.E.and V.Trindade,2002,“Ethnic Chinese Networks in International Trade,”Review of Economics and Statistics,84(1):116-130.
Volpe,C.and J.Carballo,2008,“Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries:Does it Matter How They Diversify?”Clobalization,Competitivness and Governability,2,30-49.
陈勇兵、李燕和周世民,2012,《中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素》,《经济研究》第7期48-61页。
戴翔和张二震,2016,《全球价值链分工演进与中国外贸失速之“谜”》,《经济学家》第1期75-82页。
蒋灵多和陈勇兵,2015,《出口企业的产品异质性与出口持续时间》,《世界经济》第7期3-26页。
毛其淋和盛斌,2013,《中国制造业企业的进入退出与生产率动态演化》,《经济研究》第4期16-29页。
叶宁华、包群和张柏伟,2015,《进入、退出与中国企业出口的动态序贯决策》,《世界经济》第2期86-111页。
(1)本文采用Ackerberg et al.(2015)的新方法来测算企业层面的TFP,Ackerberg et al.(2015)提出在OP和LP方法中,均存在“函数相关性”问题,即其中劳动力是其他变量的确定函数,因此不能估计出劳动力的系数。基于此,Ackerberg et al.提出了解决“函数相关性”的DP方法,即把劳动力因素引入投资需求或者中间品需求函数中(而在OP和LP方法的投资需求函数和中间品需求函数中并没有相应引入劳动力因素)。
(2)本文将企业生产率因素引入生存分析模型,旨在检验叶华宁等(2015)的结论。叶华宁(2015)研究发现,企业的确需要一生产率优势来克服出口市场的进入成本,但企业的初始生产率优势无法在企业长期出口决策中得以维持。
(1)表中仅列出了重要变量的估计结果,企业层面的其他特征变量并没有在表中列出,如有疑问,请与作者联系。
(1)本文中使用样本初期的人均GDP信息来构造指标,若在2000年目的国人均GDP高于中国,则取值为1,否则取值为0。
(1)见Bastos and Verhoogen(2018)。