基于二次移动平均法的乒乓球运动员张继科比赛态势分析
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摘要
为对比分析张继科与世界优秀乒乓球运动员比赛发球轮和接发球轮的发挥状态,观察其在比赛中各个阶段技、战术的运用效果,基于二次移动平均法对张继科在2013—2016年的34场国际比赛进行了优势期、胶着期和劣势期3个时期的比赛态势分析。结果表明:1)张继科与世界排名前20名的运动员比赛时,发球轮胶着期出现比例与比赛水平无显著相关性;接发球轮胶着期出现比例与比赛水平呈负相关,提示,张继科在接发球轮应尽量避免与对手形成胶着。2)张继科与世界排名20名以后的运动员比赛时,接发球轮胶着期出现比例与比赛水平呈正相关;发球轮胶着期出现比例与比赛水平呈负相关,提示,张继科在发球轮应尽量避免与对手形成胶着。3)张继科与世界排名前20的运动员比赛时,整体上优势期与比赛水平呈现非常显著的正相关,胶着期和劣势期与比赛水平呈现非常显著的负相关。
This paper adopted the method of double moving average to analyze ZHANG Ji-ke's competition state in the 34 international matches during 2013-2016. The purpose is to compare ZHANG Ji-ke's service and receive turns with world top 20 and after top 20 players, describe his competition state and his technique application during different stages of the match, that is, the favorable stage, stalemate stage and unfavorable stage. The results show that 1) there is no significant correlation between the stalemate stage and his competition performance in ZHANG Ji-ke's service turn for his matches with world top 20 players. In the meanwhile, there is negative correlation between statement stage and his competition performance in ZHANG Ji-ke's receive turn for his matches with world top 20 players, which indicates that ZHANG Ji-ke should try to avoid the occurrences of stalemate stage during his receives. 2) Compared with the players after top 20, there is no advantage in his service turn, and the negative correlation between the appearance of the stalemate stage and his competition performance. In the meanwhile, with the advantage to some extent at the receive turn; there is positive correlation between the appearance of the stalemate stage and his competition performance, which indicates that ZHANG Ji-ke should try to avoid the occurrences of stalemate stage during his services. 3) As a whole, there is significantly positive correlation between the favorable stage and competition performance, and significantly negative correlations between both the stalemate and unfavorable stages and competition performance for ZHANG Ji-ke's matches with world top 20 players.
This paper adopted the method of double moving average to analyze ZHANG Ji-ke's competition state in the 34 international matches during 2013-2016. The purpose is to compare ZHANG Ji-ke's service and receive turns with world top 20 and after top 20 players, describe his competition state and his technique application during different stages of the match, that is, the favorable stage, stalemate stage and unfavorable stage. The results show that 1) there is no significant correlation between the stalemate stage and his competition performance in ZHANG Ji-ke's service turn for his matches with world top 20 players. In the meanwhile, there is negative correlation between statement stage and his competition performance in ZHANG Ji-ke's receive turn for his matches with world top 20 players, which indicates that ZHANG Ji-ke should try to avoid the occurrences of stalemate stage during his receives. 2) Compared with the players after top 20, there is no advantage in his service turn, and the negative correlation between the appearance of the stalemate stage and his competition performance. In the meanwhile, with the advantage to some extent at the receive turn; there is positive correlation between the appearance of the stalemate stage and his competition performance, which indicates that ZHANG Ji-ke should try to avoid the occurrences of stalemate stage during his services. 3) As a whole, there is significantly positive correlation between the favorable stage and competition performance, and significantly negative correlations between both the stalemate and unfavorable stages and competition performance for ZHANG Ji-ke's matches with world top 20 players.
引文
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[9]Zhang H,Liu W,Hu J,et al.Evaluation of elite table tennis players’technique effectiveness[J].J Sports Sci,2013,31(14):1526-1534.
[2]华伯泉.统计预测中的二次移动平均法[J].统计研究,1995,12(2):70,73.
[3]上海体育学院.中国乒乓球队封闭训练资料汇编[R],2013.
[4]唐小峰.基于二次移动平均法的阜阳市劳动力资源预测分析[J].中国西部科技,2013,(5):76,81.
[5]王新萍.二次移动平均预测模型的建立方法[J].内蒙古统计,2004,(6):105-106.
[6]吴焕群,李振彪,陶志翔,等.乒乓球比赛中实力与技术诊断的方法及其应用效果[C]//乒乓长盛的训练学探索.北京:北京体育大学出版社,2002:207-211.
[7]吴焕群,李振彪.对乒乓球运动员技术诊断方法的研究[J].乒乓世界,1990,(1).
[8]张晓蓬,蔡振华,陆元盛,等.对第27届奥运会(2000)中外乒乓球主力队员技战术特点的比较研究[C]//乒乓长盛的训练学探索.北京:北京体育大学出版社,2002:219-235.
[9]Zhang H,Liu W,Hu J,et al.Evaluation of elite table tennis players’technique effectiveness[J].J Sports Sci,2013,31(14):1526-1534.