疏勒河流域极端水文事件对极端气候的响应
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摘要
为了明确疏勒河流域极端水文事件对极端气候事件的响应关系,选取疏勒河流域内及其周边的托勒、敦煌、瓜州、玉门、酒泉、马鬃山等气象站点的气温、降水和蒸发的日值数据,昌马堡水文站的日径流数据,通过趋势分析、滑动平均、主成分分析等方法,分析疏勒河流域极端气候指数、极端水文事件的年际变化规律以及影响极端水文事件的因素,并明确该流域极端洪水年内分布特征。结果表明:疏勒河流域年际气温升高趋势明显,降水量呈波动变化,增加趋势不明显,而蒸发量呈下降的变化趋势。表征高温的极端气温指数呈显著上升趋势,表征低温的极端气温指数呈显著下降趋势,说明疏勒河流域气温增幅明显。极端降水指数呈显著的增加趋势。该流域极端洪水事件和频次呈上升趋势,而极端枯水事件和频次呈下降趋势。极端洪水事件主要受控于极端降水事件,特别是极端降水总量,极端高温事件对极端洪水总量的增加也有影响,而极端枯水事件主要受控于极端低温事件。此外,2000—2016年年最大洪峰流量出现的时间有由8月向7月转变的趋势。
In order to clarify the response of extreme hydrological events to extreme weather events in the Shule River Basin,the daily value data of temperature,precipitation and evaporation in the Shule River Basin and its surrounding meteorological stations,such as Tuole,Dunhuang,Guazhou,Yumen,Jiuquan and Mazongshan,are selected,the daily runoff data of the Changmabao Hydrological Station is also selected.Through the methods of trend analysis,moving average and principal component analysis,this study analyzed the extreme climate indices,the interannual variation law of extreme hydrological events and the factors affecting extreme hydrological events in Shule River Basin,and clarified the annual distribution characteristics of extreme floods in the basin.The results show that the interannual temperature rises in the Shule River Basin is obvious,the precipitation fluctuations change,there is no obvious increasing trend,and the evaporation shows a downward trend.The extreme temperature indices indicating high temperature showed a significant upward trend,and the extreme temperature indices indicating low temperature showed a significant downward trend,indicating that the temperature in Shule River Basin increased significantly.The extreme precipitation indices showed an significant increase.The extreme flood events and frequency in this basin showed an upward trend,while the extreme dry events and frequency showed a downward trend.Extreme flood events are mainly controlled by extreme precipitation events,especially the total amount of extreme precipitation.Extreme high temperature events also affect the increase of the total amount of extreme flood,while extreme dry events are mainly controlled by extreme low temperature events.In addition,the occurrence time of the largest peak flow in 2000—2016 has advanced from August to July.
In order to clarify the response of extreme hydrological events to extreme weather events in the Shule River Basin,the daily value data of temperature,precipitation and evaporation in the Shule River Basin and its surrounding meteorological stations,such as Tuole,Dunhuang,Guazhou,Yumen,Jiuquan and Mazongshan,are selected,the daily runoff data of the Changmabao Hydrological Station is also selected.Through the methods of trend analysis,moving average and principal component analysis,this study analyzed the extreme climate indices,the interannual variation law of extreme hydrological events and the factors affecting extreme hydrological events in Shule River Basin,and clarified the annual distribution characteristics of extreme floods in the basin.The results show that the interannual temperature rises in the Shule River Basin is obvious,the precipitation fluctuations change,there is no obvious increasing trend,and the evaporation shows a downward trend.The extreme temperature indices indicating high temperature showed a significant upward trend,and the extreme temperature indices indicating low temperature showed a significant downward trend,indicating that the temperature in Shule River Basin increased significantly.The extreme precipitation indices showed an significant increase.The extreme flood events and frequency in this basin showed an upward trend,while the extreme dry events and frequency showed a downward trend.Extreme flood events are mainly controlled by extreme precipitation events,especially the total amount of extreme precipitation.Extreme high temperature events also affect the increase of the total amount of extreme flood,while extreme dry events are mainly controlled by extreme low temperature events.In addition,the occurrence time of the largest peak flow in 2000—2016 has advanced from August to July.
引文
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崔凤琪,唐海萍,张钦,等,2018.1960-2017年呼伦贝尔草原极端气候事件时空变化[J].干旱区研究,35(6):1382-1391.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2018.06.15.
丁宏伟,魏余广,范鹏飞,等,2001.党河水库入库径流量变化特征及趋势分析[J].中国沙漠,21(增刊):38-42.
董思言,高学杰,2014.长期气候变化-IPCC第五次评估报告解读[J].气候变化研究进展,10(1):56-59.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.01.012.
韩鹏飞,王旭升,2016.利用ABCD模型预测流域水文对极端气候的响应[J].人民黄河,38(11):16-22.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2016.11.005.
贺斌,王国亚,苏宏超,等,2012.新疆阿尔泰山地区极端水文事件对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,34(4):927-933.
胡彩虹,杨帆,李析男,2013.极端水文事件概念内涵及其在小流域的分析应用[J].水资源研究,2(3):171-180.DOI:10.12677/jwrr.2013.23025.
黄维,杨春友,张和喜,等,2017.贵州省极端气候时空演变分析[J].人民长江,48(增刊I):109-114.
蒋憬,2014.疏勒河昌马堡水文站径流年际变化规律分析[J].甘肃水利水电技术,50(12):4-6.
李计生,胡兴林,黄维东,等,2015.河西走廊疏勒河流域出山径流变化规律及趋势预测[J].冰川冻土,37(3):803-810.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0089.
李佳秀,徐长春,王晓,等,2014.开都河流域极端水文事件变化及其对气候的响应[J].水土保持研究,21(5):285-297.
李培都,司建华,冯起,等,2018a.1958-2015年敦煌及周边地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,37(2):535-544.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00055.
李培都,司建华,冯起,等,2018b.疏勒河年径流量变化特征分析及模拟[J].水资源保护,34(2):52-60.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2018.02.09.
马齐云,张继权,来全,等,2017.1960-2014年松嫩草地极端气候事件的时空变化[J].应用生态学报,28(6):1769-1778.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201706.002.
任梅芳,庞博,徐宗学,等,2018.基于随机森林模型的雅鲁藏布江流域气温降尺度研究[J].高原气象,37(5):1241-1253.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00026.
孙晨,程志刚,毛晓亮,等,2017.近44a四川地区极端气候变化趋势及特征分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),53(1):119-126.DOI:10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2017.01.018.
孙桂丽,陈亚宁,李卫红,2011.新疆极端水文事件年际变化及对气候变化的响应[J].地理科学,31(11):1389-1395.
王小玲,2010.疏勒河昌马堡站年径流长期预报模型研究[J].地下水,32(6):150-153.
吴志勇,郭红丽,金君良,等,2010.气候变化情景下黑河流域极端水文事件的响应[J].水电能源科学,28(2):7-9.
徐影,周波涛,吴婕,等,2017.1.5~4℃升温阈值下亚洲地区气候变化预估[J].气候变化研究进展,13(4):306-315.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.239.
徐宗学,刘琳,杨晓静,2017.极端气候事件与旱涝灾害研究回顾与展望[J].中国防汛抗旱,27(1):66-74.
杨春利,蓝永超,王宁练,等,2017.1958-2015年疏勒河上游出山径流变化及其气候因素分析[J].地理科学,37(12):1894-1899.
杨帆,2011.区域气候背景下流域极端气候与水文事件的关系研究[D].河南:郑州大学,1-78.
杨卫,张利平,闪丽洁,等,2015.汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征[J].气候变化研究进展,11(1):15-21.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.01.003.
张婧雯,李栋梁,柳艳菊,2014.北半球极涡新特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].高原气象,33(3):721-732.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00044.
张利平,杜鸿,夏军,等,2011.气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,30(11):1370-1379.
张鹏,张钰,罗颖,等,2013.疏勒河出山口径流对上游气候变化的响应[J].水资源与水工程学报,24(5):165-172.
张茹,张学杨,陆洪光,等,2017.基于层次分析和主成分分析的城市空气质量评价---以徐州市为例[J].安全与环境工程,24(3):103-107.
周京武,高鹰,沈永平,等,2014.天山南坡黄水沟与清水河寒区流域极端水文事件对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,36(4):1042-1048.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0126.
邹全,王国亚,贺斌,等,2013.1957-2010年天山玛纳斯河流域夏季径流及洪水过程对极端气候事件的响应[J].冰川冻土,35(3):733-740.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0083.
IPCC,2014.Climate Change 2014:Synthesis Report.Contribution of Working Groups I,II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Core Writing Team,R.K.Pachauri and L.A.Meyer(eds.)].IPCC,Geneva,Switzerland,151.
Paparrizos S,Matzarakis A,2017.Assessment of future climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of selected Greek areas with different climate conditions[J].Hydrology Research,48(5):1327-1342.DOI:10.2166/nh.2016.018.
Pearson K,1901.On lines and planes of closest fit to systems of points in space[J].Philosophical Magazine,2(11):559-572.DOI:10.1080/14786440109462720.
Vincent L A,Aguilar G E,Saindou M,et al,2011.Observed trends in indices of daily and extreme temperature and precipitation for the countries of the western Indian Ocean,1961-2008[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,116:D10108.DOI:10.1029/2010JD015303.
Wang Y J,Zhou B T,Qin D H,et al,2017.Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over the arid region of northwestern China:observation and projection[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,34(3):289-305.DOI:10.1007/s00376-016-6160-5.
陈丽娟,王壬,陈友飞,2016.1960-2014年福建省极端气候事件时空特征及变化趋势[J].中国水土保持科学,14(6):107-113.DOI:10.16843/j.sswc.2016.06.014.
陈锐杰,刘峰贵,陈琼,等,2018.近60年青藏高原东北缘极端气温事件与气温日较差分析-以西宁地区为例[J].高原气象,37(5):1188-1198.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00022.
陈亚宁,王怀军,王志成,等,2017.西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析[J].干旱区地理,40(1):1-9.
崔凤琪,唐海萍,张钦,等,2018.1960-2017年呼伦贝尔草原极端气候事件时空变化[J].干旱区研究,35(6):1382-1391.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2018.06.15.
丁宏伟,魏余广,范鹏飞,等,2001.党河水库入库径流量变化特征及趋势分析[J].中国沙漠,21(增刊):38-42.
董思言,高学杰,2014.长期气候变化-IPCC第五次评估报告解读[J].气候变化研究进展,10(1):56-59.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.01.012.
韩鹏飞,王旭升,2016.利用ABCD模型预测流域水文对极端气候的响应[J].人民黄河,38(11):16-22.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2016.11.005.
贺斌,王国亚,苏宏超,等,2012.新疆阿尔泰山地区极端水文事件对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,34(4):927-933.
胡彩虹,杨帆,李析男,2013.极端水文事件概念内涵及其在小流域的分析应用[J].水资源研究,2(3):171-180.DOI:10.12677/jwrr.2013.23025.
黄维,杨春友,张和喜,等,2017.贵州省极端气候时空演变分析[J].人民长江,48(增刊I):109-114.
蒋憬,2014.疏勒河昌马堡水文站径流年际变化规律分析[J].甘肃水利水电技术,50(12):4-6.
李计生,胡兴林,黄维东,等,2015.河西走廊疏勒河流域出山径流变化规律及趋势预测[J].冰川冻土,37(3):803-810.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0089.
李佳秀,徐长春,王晓,等,2014.开都河流域极端水文事件变化及其对气候的响应[J].水土保持研究,21(5):285-297.
李培都,司建华,冯起,等,2018a.1958-2015年敦煌及周边地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,37(2):535-544.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00055.
李培都,司建华,冯起,等,2018b.疏勒河年径流量变化特征分析及模拟[J].水资源保护,34(2):52-60.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2018.02.09.
马齐云,张继权,来全,等,2017.1960-2014年松嫩草地极端气候事件的时空变化[J].应用生态学报,28(6):1769-1778.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201706.002.
任梅芳,庞博,徐宗学,等,2018.基于随机森林模型的雅鲁藏布江流域气温降尺度研究[J].高原气象,37(5):1241-1253.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00026.
孙晨,程志刚,毛晓亮,等,2017.近44a四川地区极端气候变化趋势及特征分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),53(1):119-126.DOI:10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2017.01.018.
孙桂丽,陈亚宁,李卫红,2011.新疆极端水文事件年际变化及对气候变化的响应[J].地理科学,31(11):1389-1395.
王小玲,2010.疏勒河昌马堡站年径流长期预报模型研究[J].地下水,32(6):150-153.
吴志勇,郭红丽,金君良,等,2010.气候变化情景下黑河流域极端水文事件的响应[J].水电能源科学,28(2):7-9.
徐影,周波涛,吴婕,等,2017.1.5~4℃升温阈值下亚洲地区气候变化预估[J].气候变化研究进展,13(4):306-315.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.239.
徐宗学,刘琳,杨晓静,2017.极端气候事件与旱涝灾害研究回顾与展望[J].中国防汛抗旱,27(1):66-74.
杨春利,蓝永超,王宁练,等,2017.1958-2015年疏勒河上游出山径流变化及其气候因素分析[J].地理科学,37(12):1894-1899.
杨帆,2011.区域气候背景下流域极端气候与水文事件的关系研究[D].河南:郑州大学,1-78.
杨卫,张利平,闪丽洁,等,2015.汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征[J].气候变化研究进展,11(1):15-21.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.01.003.
张婧雯,李栋梁,柳艳菊,2014.北半球极涡新特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].高原气象,33(3):721-732.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00044.
张利平,杜鸿,夏军,等,2011.气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展[J].地理科学进展,30(11):1370-1379.
张鹏,张钰,罗颖,等,2013.疏勒河出山口径流对上游气候变化的响应[J].水资源与水工程学报,24(5):165-172.
张茹,张学杨,陆洪光,等,2017.基于层次分析和主成分分析的城市空气质量评价---以徐州市为例[J].安全与环境工程,24(3):103-107.
周京武,高鹰,沈永平,等,2014.天山南坡黄水沟与清水河寒区流域极端水文事件对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,36(4):1042-1048.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0126.
邹全,王国亚,贺斌,等,2013.1957-2010年天山玛纳斯河流域夏季径流及洪水过程对极端气候事件的响应[J].冰川冻土,35(3):733-740.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0083.