基于最优权重和区间灰数动态灰靶的变压器状态评估
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摘要
目前变压器状态评估未考虑多阶段指标信息的变化趋势,且评估指标的权重确定相对简单,造成整体评估的偏差。针对此现状,提出一种基于最优权重和区间灰数动态灰靶的变压器状态评估方法。选取状态评估指标,将指标数据分为效益型和成本型两类,并进行规范化处理。采用层次分析法赋予指标的主观权重;引入方差和均差来衡量指标数据的波动性,赋予指标的客观权重,依据相对熵原理建立优化模型确定指标的最优权重。考虑变压器多阶段状态信息集结和指标的变化趋势,提出基于区间灰数动态灰靶评估方法,以综合靶心度来评估变压器的状态。利用某变电站多台变压器多阶段的历史数据进行算例分析,验证了该状态评估方法的有效性和准确性。
For the time being, the condition assessment of transformer doesn't take the variation of multi-stage information into consideration and the weight determination of assessment index is relatively simple, causing the overall assessment bias. Against that, this paper proposes a transformer condition assessment model based on optimal weight and dynamic grey target with interval grey number. First of all, it selects the status assessment indicator and classifies the index data into efficiency index and cost index and then makes normalized treatment. Secondly, AHP is used to assign the subjective weights of the indicators; the variance difference and the mean difference are introduced to measure the volatility of the interval index data and the objective weight is given. The optimal weight of the index is determined by establishing the optimal model based on relative entropy principle. Next, an assessment method based on dynamic grey target evaluation model of interval grey number is proposed considering the accumulation of transformer phase information and the dynamic change of index, which seeks approaching degree to evaluate the state of transformers.Finally, the multi-stage historical data of multiple transformers in a substation is analyzed, and the objectivity and validity of the method are verified.
For the time being, the condition assessment of transformer doesn't take the variation of multi-stage information into consideration and the weight determination of assessment index is relatively simple, causing the overall assessment bias. Against that, this paper proposes a transformer condition assessment model based on optimal weight and dynamic grey target with interval grey number. First of all, it selects the status assessment indicator and classifies the index data into efficiency index and cost index and then makes normalized treatment. Secondly, AHP is used to assign the subjective weights of the indicators; the variance difference and the mean difference are introduced to measure the volatility of the interval index data and the objective weight is given. The optimal weight of the index is determined by establishing the optimal model based on relative entropy principle. Next, an assessment method based on dynamic grey target evaluation model of interval grey number is proposed considering the accumulation of transformer phase information and the dynamic change of index, which seeks approaching degree to evaluate the state of transformers.Finally, the multi-stage historical data of multiple transformers in a substation is analyzed, and the objectivity and validity of the method are verified.
引文
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[9]王涛云,马宏忠,崔杨柳,等.基于可拓分析和熵值法的GIS状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(8):115-120.WANG Taoyun,MA Hongzhong,CUI Yangliu,et al.Condition evaluation of gas insulated switchgear based on extension analysis and entropy method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(8):115-120.
[10]马纪,刘希喆.基于序关系-熵权法的低压配网台区健康状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(6):87-93.MA Ji,LIU Xizhe.Evaluation of health status of lowvoltage distribution network based on order relationentropy weight method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(6):87-93.
[11]吴翔,何怡刚,张大波,等.基于最优权重与雷达图的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(2):55-60.WU Xiang,HE Yigang,ZHANG Dabo,et al.Transformer condition assessment based on optimal weight and radar map[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(2):55-60.
[12]卜宪存,张海英.基于区间数TOPSIS法的电力变压器状态评估[J].高压电器,2016,52(4):205-209.BU Xiancun,ZHANG Haiying.Power transformer based on intervals TOPSIS[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2016,52(4):205-209.
[13]LIU Zifa,ZHANG Jiechao,LI Cong.Spatial electric load forecasting based on AHP and TOPSIS method[C]//International Conference on Advances in Power System Control,July 29,2010,Hong Kong,China:8-11.
[14]王岭,蔡金锭.基于剩余电压时域特征的变压器绝缘状态评估方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2017,32(1):130-137.WANG Ling,CAI Jinding.Assessment strategy on transformer insulation condition based on residual voltage time domain characteristics[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2017,32(1):130-137.
[15]谢松,蔡金锭,林韩.变压器油纸绝缘状态评估方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2017,32(1):123-129.XIE Song,CAI Jinding,LIN Han.Assessment method for transformer oil-paper insulation condition[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2017,32(1):123-129.
[16]杨杰明,董玉坤,曲朝阳,等.基于区间权重和改进云模型的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(23):102-109.YANG Jieming,DONG Yukun,QU Chaoyang,et al.Condition assessment for transformer based on interval weight and improved cloud model[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(23):102-109.
[17]闫书丽.灰靶决策方法及应用研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2014.YAN Shuli.Research on grey target decision method and its application[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2014.
[18]王俊杰,党耀国,李雪梅,等.基于区间灰数的灰色定权聚类[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(10):139-146.WANG Junjie,DANG Yaoguo,LI Xuemei,et al.Grey clusters method with fixed weights based on the interval grey number[J].China Management Science,2015,23(10):139-146.
[19]杨德新.基于模糊层次分析法的高校教师绩效评价模型的构建[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(4):31-35.YANG Dexin.The construction of university teachers'performance evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science),2015,43(4):31-35.
[20]王如伟,孔剑虹,吴港,等.一种基于相对熵组合赋权法的区间联络线选取方法研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(2):65-72.WANG Ruwei,KONG Jianhong,WU Gang,et al.Study on selection of interval tie line based on combinatorial weighting method of relative entropy[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(2):65-72.
[21]何大义,陈小玲,许加强.多属性群决策问题中基于最小叉熵的权重集成方法[J].控制与决策,2017,32(2):378-384.HE Dayi,CHEN Xiaoling,XU Jiaqiang.Weight aggregation method based on principle of minimum cross-entropy in multi attribute group decision-making[J].Control and Decision,2017,32(2):378-384.
[22]FAUSTO C,GIOVANNA T M,ANDREA Z.Contaminant release history identification in 2-D heterogeneous aquifers through a minimum relative entropy approach[J].Springer Plus,2015,4(1):656-674.
[2]张桦,魏本刚,李可军,等.基于变压器马尔可夫状态评估模型和熵权模糊评价方法的风险评估技术研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(5):134-140.ZHANG Hua,WEI Bengang,LI Kejun,et al.Research on risk assessment technology based on Markov state evaluation model for power transformer and entropy weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(5):134-140.
[3]孙莹,高贺,李可军,等.基于多时段信息融合的配电变压器运行状态评估模型[J].高电压技术,2016,42(7):2054-2062.SUN Ying,GAO He,LI Kejun,et al.Condition assessment model of distribution transformer based on multi-period information fusion[J].High Voltage Engineering,2016,42(7):2054-2062.
[4]徐岩,陈昕.基于合作博弈和云模型的变压器状态评估方法[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(3):88-93.XU Yan,CHEN Xin.Transformer status assessment based on cooperative game and cloud model[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(3):88-93.
[5]曾丹乐,杜修明,盛戈皞,等.基于因子分析法与D-S证据理论的变压器关键参量提取和状态评估[J].高压电器,2016,52(3):7-14.ZENG Danle,DU Xiuming,SHENG Gehao,et al.Key parameters extraction and condition evaluation of transformer based on factor analysis and D-S evidence theory[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2016,52(3):7-14.
[6]廖瑞金,孟繁津,周年荣,等.基于集对分析和证据理论融合的变压器内绝缘状态评估方法[J].高电压技术,2014,40(2):474-481.LIAO Ruijin,MENG Fanjin,ZHOU Nianrong,et al.Assessment strategy for inner insulation condition of power transformer based on set-pair analysis and evidential reasoning decision-making[J].High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(2):474-481.
[7]赵云峰,张永强,聂德鑫,等.基于模糊和证据理论的变压器本体绝缘状态评估方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(23):57-62.ZHAO Yunfeng,ZHANG Yongqiang,NIE Dexin,et al.Application of fuzzy and evidence theory in power transformers condition assessment[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(23):57-62.
[8]廖瑞金,张镱议,黄飞龙,等.基于可拓分析法的电力变压器本体绝缘状态评估[J].高电压技术,2012,38(3):521-526.LIAO Ruijin,ZHANG Yiyi,HUANG Feilong,et al.Power transformer condition assessment strategy using matter element analysis[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(3):521-526.
[9]王涛云,马宏忠,崔杨柳,等.基于可拓分析和熵值法的GIS状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(8):115-120.WANG Taoyun,MA Hongzhong,CUI Yangliu,et al.Condition evaluation of gas insulated switchgear based on extension analysis and entropy method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(8):115-120.
[10]马纪,刘希喆.基于序关系-熵权法的低压配网台区健康状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(6):87-93.MA Ji,LIU Xizhe.Evaluation of health status of lowvoltage distribution network based on order relationentropy weight method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(6):87-93.
[11]吴翔,何怡刚,张大波,等.基于最优权重与雷达图的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(2):55-60.WU Xiang,HE Yigang,ZHANG Dabo,et al.Transformer condition assessment based on optimal weight and radar map[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(2):55-60.
[12]卜宪存,张海英.基于区间数TOPSIS法的电力变压器状态评估[J].高压电器,2016,52(4):205-209.BU Xiancun,ZHANG Haiying.Power transformer based on intervals TOPSIS[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2016,52(4):205-209.
[13]LIU Zifa,ZHANG Jiechao,LI Cong.Spatial electric load forecasting based on AHP and TOPSIS method[C]//International Conference on Advances in Power System Control,July 29,2010,Hong Kong,China:8-11.
[14]王岭,蔡金锭.基于剩余电压时域特征的变压器绝缘状态评估方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2017,32(1):130-137.WANG Ling,CAI Jinding.Assessment strategy on transformer insulation condition based on residual voltage time domain characteristics[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2017,32(1):130-137.
[15]谢松,蔡金锭,林韩.变压器油纸绝缘状态评估方法[J].电力科学与技术学报,2017,32(1):123-129.XIE Song,CAI Jinding,LIN Han.Assessment method for transformer oil-paper insulation condition[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2017,32(1):123-129.
[16]杨杰明,董玉坤,曲朝阳,等.基于区间权重和改进云模型的变压器状态评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(23):102-109.YANG Jieming,DONG Yukun,QU Chaoyang,et al.Condition assessment for transformer based on interval weight and improved cloud model[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(23):102-109.
[17]闫书丽.灰靶决策方法及应用研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2014.YAN Shuli.Research on grey target decision method and its application[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2014.
[18]王俊杰,党耀国,李雪梅,等.基于区间灰数的灰色定权聚类[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(10):139-146.WANG Junjie,DANG Yaoguo,LI Xuemei,et al.Grey clusters method with fixed weights based on the interval grey number[J].China Management Science,2015,23(10):139-146.
[19]杨德新.基于模糊层次分析法的高校教师绩效评价模型的构建[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(4):31-35.YANG Dexin.The construction of university teachers'performance evaluation model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science),2015,43(4):31-35.
[20]王如伟,孔剑虹,吴港,等.一种基于相对熵组合赋权法的区间联络线选取方法研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(2):65-72.WANG Ruwei,KONG Jianhong,WU Gang,et al.Study on selection of interval tie line based on combinatorial weighting method of relative entropy[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(2):65-72.
[21]何大义,陈小玲,许加强.多属性群决策问题中基于最小叉熵的权重集成方法[J].控制与决策,2017,32(2):378-384.HE Dayi,CHEN Xiaoling,XU Jiaqiang.Weight aggregation method based on principle of minimum cross-entropy in multi attribute group decision-making[J].Control and Decision,2017,32(2):378-384.
[22]FAUSTO C,GIOVANNA T M,ANDREA Z.Contaminant release history identification in 2-D heterogeneous aquifers through a minimum relative entropy approach[J].Springer Plus,2015,4(1):656-674.