区域能源供给安全水平动态性评价——以西北和东北能源富集区为例
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摘要
能源供给是能源安全的核心,区域能源供给安全又是能源供给安全问题的主要内容。文中在综述国内外文献的基础上,结合中国区域能源供给安全的状况,从可用性、可支付性、环境可接受性和能源技术与效率4个维度构建了影响我国区域能源供给安全的指标体系,以2005—2017年我国能源富集区西北5省和东北3省8个省份的面板数据为研究样本,采用基于二次加权的"纵横向拉开档次法"动态模型对上述省份的能源供给安全进行评价。研究发现:以2010年为分界点,2010年以前西北和东北能源富集区能源供给安全水平不高,但是2010年以后均有较大提高。不同地区影响能源供给安全的主要因素也不一定完全相同,资源禀赋是保证能源供给安全的基础条件,但要真正实现供给安全还要取决于价格,环境,效率等其他因素。总体来看,能源资源丰富,多样化程度高,能源利用效率较高的地区,如宁夏和辽宁省能源供给安全水平相对较高一些。但是,从安全等级来看,样本区间内各省份的能源供给安全水平均不高,均处于安全等级以下。
Energy supply is the core issue of energy security. The security of regional energy supply is an important issue in energy security. This paper is based on the review of domestic and foreign literature,combined with the situation of regional energy supply security in China,and tried to construct the index system of regional energy supply security in four dimensions as availability,affordability,environmental acceptability,energy technology and efficiency. The panel data that were collected from eight provinces in northwest and northeast of China from 2005 to 2017 were used as the research sample. Using the dynamic model,this paper shows the dynamic evolution trend of the energy supply security indifferent provinces. Comparing the energy supply security situation and the main driving factors in different regions,we provide a new idea and method for the study of energy supply security in China. The study found that taking 2010 as the dividing point,the security level of energy supply in northwest and northeast areas are not high before 2010,but it has been greatly improved since 2010. The main factors affecting the security of energy supply are not necessarily the same in different regions. Resource endowment is the basic condition to ensure energy supply security,but it also depends on price,environment,efficiency and other factors to realize the security of supply. In general,regions with abundant energy resources,high degree of diversification and high energy utilization efficiency,such as Ningxia and Liaoning,have relatively higher levels of energy supply security. However,from the perspective of security level,energy supply security level in each province is not high,all of which are below the security level within the sample period.
Energy supply is the core issue of energy security. The security of regional energy supply is an important issue in energy security. This paper is based on the review of domestic and foreign literature,combined with the situation of regional energy supply security in China,and tried to construct the index system of regional energy supply security in four dimensions as availability,affordability,environmental acceptability,energy technology and efficiency. The panel data that were collected from eight provinces in northwest and northeast of China from 2005 to 2017 were used as the research sample. Using the dynamic model,this paper shows the dynamic evolution trend of the energy supply security indifferent provinces. Comparing the energy supply security situation and the main driving factors in different regions,we provide a new idea and method for the study of energy supply security in China. The study found that taking 2010 as the dividing point,the security level of energy supply in northwest and northeast areas are not high before 2010,but it has been greatly improved since 2010. The main factors affecting the security of energy supply are not necessarily the same in different regions. Resource endowment is the basic condition to ensure energy supply security,but it also depends on price,environment,efficiency and other factors to realize the security of supply. In general,regions with abundant energy resources,high degree of diversification and high energy utilization efficiency,such as Ningxia and Liaoning,have relatively higher levels of energy supply security. However,from the perspective of security level,energy supply security level in each province is not high,all of which are below the security level within the sample period.
引文
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[18]王小琴,余敬.能源安全测度的新维度:能源多样性[J].国土资源科技管理. 2016,1(33):24-30.WANG Xiao-qin,YU Jing. New perspective for energy security measurement:energy diversity[J]. Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2016,1(33):24-30.
[19]李品.中国能源供给安全影响因素研究[J].西安科技大学学报,2018,38(3):403-410.LI Pin. Influential factors of energy supply security of China[J]. Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology,2018,38(3):403-410.
[20]杨维新.中国能源体系所面临的风险与对策分析[J].经济问题探索,2014(8):37-42.YANG Wei-xin. Risk and countermeasure analysis of China’s energy system[J]. Inquiry Into Economic Issues,2014(8):37-42.
[21]屈小娥. 1990—2009年中国省际环境污染综合评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(5):158-163.QU Xiao-e. China’s provincial environment assessment:an empirical analysis based on the years from1990 to 2009[J]. China Population Resources and Environment,2012,22(5):158-163.
[22]田时中,赵鹏大.中部六省雾霾压力动态综合评价模型与实证[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(9):56-61.TIAN Shi-zhong,ZHAO Peng-da. Dynamic evaluation and empirical study on haze pressure in six provinces of central China[J]. Statistics and Information Forum,2016,31(9):56-61.
[23] Pin Li J Z J X. A dynamic approach to measuring China’s provincial energy supply security along “the Belt and Road”[J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2018.
[24] Ang B W,Choong W L,Ng T S. Energy security:definitions,dimensions and indexes[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,42:1077-1093.
[25] Liu F Z S W M. Fire risk assessment for large-scale commercial buildings based on structure entropy weight method[J]. Safety Science,2017,94:26-40.
[26] Ang B W,Choong W L,Ng T S. A framework for evaluating Singapore’s energy security[J]. Applied Energy,2015,148:314-325.
[2] Aperc A P E R. Energy security initiative:some aspects of oil security[R]. Japan:Institute of Energy Economics,2003.
[3]邹艳芬.中国能源安全的战略模式导向[J].经济问题探索,2008(5):7-11.ZOU Yan-fen. Strategic model orientation of China’s energy security[J]. Inquiry Into Economic Issues,2008(5):7-11.
[4]吴初国.国土资源可持续发展指标体系探索与实践[M].北京:地质出版社,2006.WU Chu-guo. Exploration and practice of sustainable development Index system of land and resources[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2006.
[5]薛静静,沈镭,彭保发,等.中国能源生产和消费大省的能源供给安全综合评价及优化——以陕西省和广东省为例[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(10):1686-1697.XUE Jing-jing,SHEN Lei,PENG Bao-fa,et al. Comprehensive evaluation and optimization of energy supply security in China’s large energy production and consumption provinces:a case study of Shaanxi Province and Guangdong Province[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(10):1686-1697.
[6] Le Coq C,Paltseva E. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union[J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(11):4474-4481.
[7] Sovacool B K,Mukherjee I,Drupady I M,et al. Evaluating energy security performance from 1990 to 2010 for eighteen countries[J]. Energy,2011,36(10):5846-5853.
[8] Winzer C. Conceptualizing energy security[J]. Energy Policy,2012,46:36-48.
[9]谷树忠,姚予龙.国家资源安全及其系统分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):142-148.GU Shu-zhong,YAO Yu-long. National resources security and systematic analysis[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment,2006,16(6):142-148.
[10]郭金栋,王恩元.煤炭能源安全测度指标体系与综合评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):112-118.GUO Jin-dong,WANG En-yuan. Measurement index system and comprehensive evaluation of coal energy security[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(11):112-118.
[11]薛静静,沈镭,刘立涛,等.中国能源供给安全综合评价及障碍因素分析[J].地理研究,2014,33(5):842-852.XUE Jing-jing,SHEN Lei,LIU Li-tao,et al. Energy supply security assessment of China and the influence factor based on set pair analysis[J]. Geographical Research,2014,3305):842-852.
[12]张艳,沈镭,于汶加.基于DPSIR模型的区域能源安全评价——以广东省为例[J].中国矿业,2014,23(7):32-37.ZHANG Yan,SHEN Lei,YU Wen-jia. Evaluation of regional energy security based on the DPSIR Model:a case study of Guangdong province[J]. China Mining Magazine,2014,23(7):32-37.
[13]陈兆荣,雷勋平.基于熵权可拓的我国能源安全评价模型[J].系统工程,2015,33(7):153-158.CHEN Zhao-rong,LEI Xun-ping. Energy security evaluation model of China based on entropy weight extension[J]. Systems Engineering,2015,33(7):153-158.
[14] Geng J,Ji Q. Multi-perspective analysis of China’s energy supply security[J]. Energy,2014,64:541-550.
[15]吴初国,何贤杰,盛昌明,等.能源安全综合评价方法探讨[J].自然资源学报,2011,6(26):964-970.WU Chu-guo,HE Xian-jie,SHENG Chang-ming,et al.Comprehensive evaluation methods of energy security[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2011,6(26):964-970.
[16]张金锁,刘春光,张伟,等.煤炭资源安全绿色高效开发综合评价研究[J].中国煤炭,2014(1):15-19.ZHANG Jin-suo,LIU Chun-guang,ZHANG Wei,et al.On comprehensive evaluation of safe,green and efficient development of coal resources[J]. China Coal,2014(1):15-19.
[17] Cohen G J F L. Measuring energy security:trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies[J]. Energy Policy,2011,39:4860-4869.
[18]王小琴,余敬.能源安全测度的新维度:能源多样性[J].国土资源科技管理. 2016,1(33):24-30.WANG Xiao-qin,YU Jing. New perspective for energy security measurement:energy diversity[J]. Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2016,1(33):24-30.
[19]李品.中国能源供给安全影响因素研究[J].西安科技大学学报,2018,38(3):403-410.LI Pin. Influential factors of energy supply security of China[J]. Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology,2018,38(3):403-410.
[20]杨维新.中国能源体系所面临的风险与对策分析[J].经济问题探索,2014(8):37-42.YANG Wei-xin. Risk and countermeasure analysis of China’s energy system[J]. Inquiry Into Economic Issues,2014(8):37-42.
[21]屈小娥. 1990—2009年中国省际环境污染综合评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(5):158-163.QU Xiao-e. China’s provincial environment assessment:an empirical analysis based on the years from1990 to 2009[J]. China Population Resources and Environment,2012,22(5):158-163.
[22]田时中,赵鹏大.中部六省雾霾压力动态综合评价模型与实证[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(9):56-61.TIAN Shi-zhong,ZHAO Peng-da. Dynamic evaluation and empirical study on haze pressure in six provinces of central China[J]. Statistics and Information Forum,2016,31(9):56-61.
[23] Pin Li J Z J X. A dynamic approach to measuring China’s provincial energy supply security along “the Belt and Road”[J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2018.
[24] Ang B W,Choong W L,Ng T S. Energy security:definitions,dimensions and indexes[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,42:1077-1093.
[25] Liu F Z S W M. Fire risk assessment for large-scale commercial buildings based on structure entropy weight method[J]. Safety Science,2017,94:26-40.
[26] Ang B W,Choong W L,Ng T S. A framework for evaluating Singapore’s energy security[J]. Applied Energy,2015,148:314-325.