基于协整检验的海南省高等教育层次结构与经济发展关系研究
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摘要
区域经济发展是高等教育演进的重要物质基础与社会资源,高等教育则是区域经济发展的内生动力与智力支持。通过使用1990—2016年海南省高等教育与经济发展的相关时间序列数据,依据协整理论建构专科、本科、研究生规模与区域GDP的向量误差修正模型,实证结果显示:海南省高等教育层次结构与区域GDP之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系(协整关系),VEC模型具有负值调整系数,实现反向修正机制;本科规模与GDP之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,专科、研究生规模与GDP之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系;从短期动态分析,各层次规模对于区域经济发展均为正向影响,贡献度随着滞后期数增加持续上升。因此,为促进高等教育在海南自由贸易区(港)、国际旅游岛建设中发挥积极作用,海南省应加快发展高职(专科)教育,重点发展本科教育,分类发展研究生教育。
Based on the time series data of higher education and economic development in Hainan Province from 1990 to 2016, a VEC model for the scale of college, undergraduate and postgraduate students and regional GDP is constructed according to cointegration theory. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship(cointegration) between the higher education level structure and regional GDP in Hainan Province, and the VEC model has a negative adjustment coefficient to achieve a reverse correction mechanism.The results also show that there is a two-way Granger causality between the undergraduate scale and GDP and a one-way Granger causality between GDP and college and graduate scale. From the short-term dynamic analysis,the scale of each level has a positive impact on regional economic development, with the contribution increasing in the later lag period. Therefore, it is suggested to speed up the development of higher vocational(college)education, focus on the development of undergraduate education, and classify development of postgraduate education.
Based on the time series data of higher education and economic development in Hainan Province from 1990 to 2016, a VEC model for the scale of college, undergraduate and postgraduate students and regional GDP is constructed according to cointegration theory. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship(cointegration) between the higher education level structure and regional GDP in Hainan Province, and the VEC model has a negative adjustment coefficient to achieve a reverse correction mechanism.The results also show that there is a two-way Granger causality between the undergraduate scale and GDP and a one-way Granger causality between GDP and college and graduate scale. From the short-term dynamic analysis,the scale of each level has a positive impact on regional economic development, with the contribution increasing in the later lag period. Therefore, it is suggested to speed up the development of higher vocational(college)education, focus on the development of undergraduate education, and classify development of postgraduate education.
引文
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[3]詹宏毅.我国高等教育层次结构的分析和预测[J].国家教育行政学院学报,2012(2):65-69.
[4]肖玮萍.系统论视野下我国高等教育层次结构优化探析[J].现代教育科学,2011(3):89-92.
[5]李全生,杨亮.我国高等教育层次结构与经济发展适应性分析[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011(5):142-146.
[6]杨宇轩.高等教育层次结构调整与经济增长的关系研究[D].成都:西南财经大学,2012.
[7]孙虹,魏海丽.基于VAR模型的高等教育层次结构与区域经济增长关系的实证研究[J].工业技术经济,2015(10):69-76.
[8]迟景明,何晓芳,程文,等.高等教育层次结构与经济发展关系的实证研究[J].教育与经济,2010(1):1-7.
[9]邱家洪.重庆高等教育结构的优化与质量保障[J].教育评论,2009(5):113-116.
[10]陈媛,尹坚毅.湖南高等教育结构合理性分析[J].现代大学教育,2006(6):59-64.
[11]周航.浙江高等教育结构优化研究[J].教育与职业,2011(14):16-18.
[12]贺祖斌,王国亮.共生理念下的广西高等教育布局结构优化[J].广西社会科学,2013(1):27-30.
[13] Engle R F,Granger C W J.Cointegration and Error Correction:Representation, Estimation, and Testing[J].Econometrical,1987(2):251-276.
[14]刘慧.“克强指数”与经济增长的动态关系研究———基于VAR和VEC模型的实证分析[J].商业时代,2014(1):11-13.
[15]司俊峰,荀渊,叶楠楠.基于协整理论的研究生教育规模影响因素探析[J].黑龙江高教研究,2017(3):88-93.
[16]李嫣怡,刘荣,丁维岱,等.Eviews统计分析与应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2013:178.
[17] Granger C W J.Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Modelsand Cross-spectral Methods[J].Econometrica,1969(3):424-438.
[18] Granger C W J. Time Series Analysis, Cointegration, and Applications[J].American Economic Review.2004(3):421-425.
[19]习近平就加快发展职业教育作出重要指示[N].人民日报,2014-06-24(1).
[21]刘博超.教育部部长陈宝生:本科教育的8个“首先”[N].光明日报,2018-06-22(8).