云南岩溶区降水变化的气候特征
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摘要
岩溶区面临严峻的水资源形势,为解释云南省岩溶区近60年来降水的历史变化特征并服务现今的水资源管理,以云南省5个岩溶片区1959-2017年的逐日降水量数据为基础,采用线性倾向估计法和Mann-Kendall非秩次检验法,系统性研究了云南岩溶区降水变化特征。结果表明:自1959年以来,云南省5个岩溶片区的降水量均呈现出减少的趋势,其中滇中和滇东南的减少最为明显,但均未达到0. 05的显著性水平;云南岩溶区降水日数均呈现出减少的倾向,其中滇西、滇中、滇东南片区的减少趋势达到0. 05置信水平,其余区域不明显;小降水级别的降水量在云南岩溶区呈减少态势,而大降水级别的降水量则有所增加; 5个岩溶区多年平均最长干旱时间的变化存在较大的区域差异,其中滇西北、滇西、滇东北和滇东南片区的最长持续干旱时间均有所增加,而滇中则呈现为减少趋势;云南5个岩溶片区的平均最长持续降水时间均呈现出减少趋势,其中滇东北片区的减少趋势变化显著。降水的这些变化趋势给岩溶区水资源利用与生态环境保护提出了新的挑战。
Shortage in water resources is a serious problem in karst areas. Based on the daily precipitation data of five karst regions in Yunnan Province between 1959 and 2017,the precipitation changes in Yunnan karst area were systematically revealed using the trend analysis and Mann-Kendall non rank test. The results are as follows: Since 1959,the precipitation in the studied five karst regions in Yunnan Province shown a decreasing trend,and the decreases in central Yunnan and Southeast Yunnan were more obvious,but did not reach the 0. 05 significant level. In recent years,the number of precipitation days in Yunnan karst area has shown a decreasing trend,of which the decrease trend of the western Yunnan,Central Yunnan and southeastern Yunnan was 0. 05 confidence level,but the other areas were not obvious. The precipitation of small precipitation level in Yunnan karst area showed a decreasing trend,whereas the precipitation at heavy precipitation level shown an increasing trend. The variation of the longest drought time in the five karst regions of Yunnan has great regional differences. The longest consecutive dry days in Northwest Yunnan,western Yunnan,Northeast Yunnan and Southeast Yunnan shows an increasing trend,but in the Middle Yunnan,the trend of decreasing is significant. The average consecutive wet days decreased in all of the five karst regions of Yunnan,but the trend were not obvious except for the Northeast Yunnan.
Shortage in water resources is a serious problem in karst areas. Based on the daily precipitation data of five karst regions in Yunnan Province between 1959 and 2017,the precipitation changes in Yunnan karst area were systematically revealed using the trend analysis and Mann-Kendall non rank test. The results are as follows: Since 1959,the precipitation in the studied five karst regions in Yunnan Province shown a decreasing trend,and the decreases in central Yunnan and Southeast Yunnan were more obvious,but did not reach the 0. 05 significant level. In recent years,the number of precipitation days in Yunnan karst area has shown a decreasing trend,of which the decrease trend of the western Yunnan,Central Yunnan and southeastern Yunnan was 0. 05 confidence level,but the other areas were not obvious. The precipitation of small precipitation level in Yunnan karst area showed a decreasing trend,whereas the precipitation at heavy precipitation level shown an increasing trend. The variation of the longest drought time in the five karst regions of Yunnan has great regional differences. The longest consecutive dry days in Northwest Yunnan,western Yunnan,Northeast Yunnan and Southeast Yunnan shows an increasing trend,but in the Middle Yunnan,the trend of decreasing is significant. The average consecutive wet days decreased in all of the five karst regions of Yunnan,but the trend were not obvious except for the Northeast Yunnan.
引文
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[3]罗文生,宋维峰,尹义发.云南石漠化防治现状[J].亚热带水土保持,2010,22(1):27-30+55.
[4]吴兴国.云南岩溶区的石漠化和综合治理[J].绿色科技,2014(11):34-35.
[5]章新平,关华德,孙治安,等.云南降水中稳定同位素变化的模拟和比较[J].地理科学,2012,32(1):121-128.
[6]彭贵芬,刘瑜.云南各量级雨日的气候特征及变化[J].高原气象,2009,28(1):214-219.
[7]李华宏,胡娟,闵颖.云南短时强降水时空分布特征分析[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):57-62.
[8]符传博,吴涧,丹利.近50年云南省雨日及降水量的气候变化[J].高原气象,2011,30(4):1017-1033.
[9]刘瑜,赵尔旭,黄玮.云南近46年降水与气温变化趋势的特征分析[J].灾害学,2010,25(1):39-44+63.
[10]王宇,彭淑惠,杨双兰.云南岩溶区As、Cd元素异常特征[J].中国岩溶,2012,31(4):377-381.
[11]宁晓菊,张丽君,杨群涛,等.1951年以来中国无霜期的变化趋势[J].地理学报,2015,70(11):1811-1822.
[12]Mann H B.Nonparametric test against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[13]陈宗瑜.云南气候总论[M].北京:气象出版社,2001.
[14]周跃,吕喜玺,许建初,等.云南省气候变化影响评估报告[M].北京:气象出版社,2011.
[15]贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1179-1190.
[16]张万诚,郑建萌,陈艳,等.2009-2010年云南特大干旱的气候特征及成因[J].气象科学,2015,35(4):488-496.
[17]廖要明,陈德亮,谢云.中国日降水量小于不同阈值日数时空分布特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):321-336.
[18]汪卫平,杨修群,张祖强,等.中国雨日数的气候特征及趋势变化[J].气象科学,2017,37(3):317-328.
[19]符娇兰,林祥,钱维宏.中国夏季分级雨日的时空特征[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(4):367-373.
[20]王颖,施能,顾骏强,等.中国雨日的气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):162-170.
[21]冯新灵,罗隆诚,冯自立,等.中国雨日变化趋势的分形研究[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):112-117.
[22]程建刚,解明恩.近50年云南区域气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(5):19-26.
[23]张万诚,郑建萌,任菊章.云南极端气候干旱的特征分析[J].灾害学,2013,28(1):59-64.